FutureSim — 2026-05-26

137 forecasts · 116 active · 21 resolved today · regenerated 2026-05-26 17:25Z

Paper PnL · cumulative

$-9.05 (35 open · $+0.00 realized)

Avg Brier (resolved today)

0.012 lower is better; 0 = perfect, 1 = totally wrong

Top edges — active markets

Deduped by question family so threshold ladders don't drown out other markets.

Title	Agent	Market	Δ	Resolves
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	100%	18%	+81.0pp	2026-06-01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	62%	52%	+9.5pp	2026-05-31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	31%	24%	+6.5pp	2026-06-01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	40%	36%	+4.5pp	2026-06-07
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	1%	0%	+0.8pp	2026-05-31

Resolved today

Title	Agent	Truth	Brier
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	65%	Yes	0.122
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	65%	Yes	0.122

PnL curve

Calibration plot (resolved predictions)

Belief evolution — top markets by edge

Solid = agent's YES probability. Dashed = Polymarket. One color per market. Lines emerge after ≥2 days of data; day-1 runs show single points.

All 137 forecasts (sortable in browser)

qid	title	Agent	Market	Δ pp	Resolves	Resolved
`2322404`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	100%	18%	+81.0pp	2026-06-01
`2132648`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	65%	100%	-35.0pp	2026-06-01	✓
`2230536`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	65%	100%	-35.0pp	2026-06-01	✓
`1962237`	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	62%	52%	+9.5pp	2026-05-31
`2132637`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	31%	24%	+6.5pp	2026-06-01
`2334107`	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	40%	36%	+4.5pp	2026-06-07
`2270330`	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	50%	46%	+4.0pp	2026-06-15
`2074240`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	11%	8%	+2.5pp	2026-06-01
`2270338`	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	68%	66%	+2.5pp	2026-07-31
`1919425`	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	22%	24%	-1.5pp	2026-05-31
`2155052`	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	81%	80%	+1.5pp	2026-12-31
`2074237`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	7%	6%	+1.0pp	2026-06-01
`2132638`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	4%	3%	+0.9pp	2026-06-01
`1707932`	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	1%	0%	+0.8pp	2026-05-31
`2074241`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	2%	1%	+0.6pp	2026-06-01
`2074238`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	100%	100%	-0.5pp	2026-06-01	✓
`2074239`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?	100%	100%	-0.5pp	2026-06-01	✓
`2132639`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	100%	100%	-0.5pp	2026-06-01	✓
`2132649`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	100%	100%	-0.5pp	2026-06-01	✓
`2160165`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?	100%	100%	-0.5pp	2026-06-01	✓
`2182198`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	100%	100%	-0.5pp	2026-06-01	✓
`2182200`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in May?	100%	100%	-0.5pp	2026-06-01	✓
`2182203`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	100%	100%	-0.5pp	2026-06-01	✓
`2230534`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	100%	100%	-0.5pp	2026-06-01	✓
`2230535`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	100%	100%	-0.5pp	2026-06-01	✓
`2074236`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	2%	2%	+0.2pp	2026-06-01
`2074233`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	0%	0%	+0.1pp	2026-06-01
`2074235`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	1%	1%	+0.1pp	2026-06-01
`2074243`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	0%	0%	+0.1pp	2026-06-01
`2074234`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	1%	1%	+0.1pp	2026-06-01
`2074242`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	0%	0%	+0.1pp	2026-06-01
`2074244`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	0%	0%	+0.1pp	2026-06-01
`2074245`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May?	0%	0%	-0.1pp	2026-06-01
`2074246`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	0%	0%	+0.1pp	2026-06-01
`2128304`	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	0%	0%	-0.1pp	2026-06-01
`2296135`	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	7%	—	—	2026-05-27
`2354001`	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 2	32%	—	—	2026-05-27
`573655`	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	1%	—	—	2026-07-01
`573656`	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	10%	—	—	2027-01-01
`631139`	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	18%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631140`	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 202	74%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631141`	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	4%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631142`	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	0%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631143`	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	0%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631144`	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631145`	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026	1%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631146`	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026	0%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631147`	Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	0%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631148`	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	0%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631149`	Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 202	0%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631150`	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631151`	Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	0%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631152`	Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	0%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631153`	Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 202	0%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631154`	Will Company F have the best AI model at the end of June 202	0%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631155`	Will Company G have the best AI model at the end of June 202	0%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631156`	Will Company H have the best AI model at the end of June 202	0%	—	—	2026-06-30
`631157`	Will any other company have the best AI model at the end of	0%	—	—	2026-06-30
`653788`	OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	12%	—	—	2026-12-31
`906972`	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Ju	0%	—	—	2026-06-17
`906973`	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Jun	2%	—	—	2026-06-17
`906974`	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June	96%	—	—	2026-06-17
`906975`	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Jun	2%	—	—	2026-06-17
`906976`	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Ju	0%	—	—	2026-06-17
`1184762`	Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	2%	—	—	2026-12-31
`1808970`	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	1%	—	—	2026-05-31
`1809560`	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2%	—	—	2026-05-31
`2006983`	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	26%	—	—	2026-12-31
`2034722`	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	30%	—	—	2026-06-30
`2097648`	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?	9%	—	—	2026-05-31
`2100069`	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	86%	—	—	2026-06-30
`2100070`	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	94%	—	—	2026-07-31
`2116050`	Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 3	5%	—	—	2026-05-31
`2125755`	GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?	4%	—	—	2026-05-31
`2132768`	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	0%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2132769`	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	0%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2132770`	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	0%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2132771`	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	0%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2132772`	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	1%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2132773`	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	1%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2132774`	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	3%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2132775`	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	10%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2132776`	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	28%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2132777`	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?	100%	—	—	2026-06-01	✓
`2132778`	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	97%	—	—	2026-06-01	✓
`2132779`	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	17%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2132780`	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	5%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2132781`	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	2%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2132782`	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May?	1%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2132783`	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May?	0%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2132784`	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?	0%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2132785`	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	0%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2132786`	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May?	0%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2132787`	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	0%	—	—	2026-06-01
`2133404`	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	2%	—	—	2026-05-31	✓
`2133405`	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	12%	—	—	2026-05-31
`2167541`	Iran closes its airspace by May 6?	2%	—	—	2026-05-31	✓
`2167542`	Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	2%	—	—	2026-05-31	✓
`2183424`	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	9%	—	—	2026-06-30
`2241742`	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	31%	—	—	2026-06-30
`2268845`	GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?	62%	—	—	2026-06-15
`2294941`	GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	32%	—	—	2026-06-08
`2296150`	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	30%	—	—	2026-06-15
`2298736`	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?	2%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298737`	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?	9%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298738`	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?	32%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298739`	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	74%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298740`	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	92%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298741`	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by June 30?	100%	—	—	2026-07-01	✓
`2298742`	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?	100%	—	—	2026-07-01	✓
`2298743`	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by June 30?	100%	—	—	2026-07-01	✓
`2298744`	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30?	8%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298745`	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $850B by June 30?	7%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298746`	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?	5%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298747`	Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?	2%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298768`	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?	1%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298769`	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?	5%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298770`	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	13%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298771`	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?	19%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298772`	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?	37%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298773`	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?	47%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298774`	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30?	80%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298775`	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30?	91%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298776`	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30?	26%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298777`	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?	6%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298778`	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by June 30?	5%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2298779`	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30?	2%	—	—	2026-07-01
`2303132`	GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?	24%	—	—	2026-06-05
`2303886`	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	—	—	—	2027-01-01
`2304322`	Anthropic vs Meta — higher valuation on June 30?	—	—	—	2026-07-01
`2321568`	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026?	1%	—	—	2026-06-06	✓
`2321569`	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 26, 2026?	8%	—	—	2026-06-06
`2321570`	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?	28%	—	—	2026-06-06
`2321571`	Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?	46%	—	—	2026-06-06
`2354002`	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 2	38%	—	—	2026-05-28
`2354003`	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June	81%	—	—	2026-06-30
`2355076`	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?	13%	—	—	2026-07-31