FutureSim — 2026-05-27

73 forecasts · 52 active · 21 resolved today · regenerated 2026-05-27 17:45Z
Paper PnL · cumulative
$+0.50 (15 open · $+0.00 realized)
Avg Brier (resolved today)
0.011 lower is better; 0 = perfect, 1 = totally wrong

Real-money readiness — paper-driven gates

The FutureSim paper evaluates the agent against ground truth (Brier), not against market price. Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar — these three gates have to clear before paper becomes real. See docs/futuresim-research.md § Real-money readiness.

GateCurrent ThresholdStatus
Forward-resolved marketsCounted only when the agent predicted a market while it was OPEN and then watched it resolve. Hindsight forecasts on already-closed markets (the RESULTS-SINCE-LAST-SESSION history bundled into every run) don't count.0≥ 50NO
Net paper PnL (after 2% fee)Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar than the paper's Brier-vs-truth evaluation.$+0.00 over 0 closed> $0 across ≥ 50 closedNO
Calibration RMSEReported only once gate 1 passes — RMSE on fewer than 50 resolved predictions is noise.—< 0.10NO

❌ DO NOT BET real money — gates not yet cleared.

Top edges — active markets

Deduped by question family so threshold ladders don't drown out other markets.
TitleAgentMarket ΔResolves
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?32%12%+19.5pp2026-06-08
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?24%7%+17.0pp2026-06-05
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?94%79%+15.3pp2026-07-31
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?21%33%-12.0pp2026-05-29
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?32%42%-10.0pp2026-05-30
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?34%26%+8.3pp2026-06-30
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?28%20%+8.0pp2026-06-15
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?30%24%+6.5pp2026-06-30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?70%66%+3.0pp2026-07-31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?40%42%-2.0pp2026-06-15
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?77%79%-1.9pp2026-06-30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?6%5%+1.5pp2026-06-30

Resolved today

TitleAgentTruthBrier
Iran closes its airspace by May 6?0%No0.000
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?0%No0.000
PnL curve
Calibration plot (resolved predictions)

Belief evolution — top markets by edge

Solid = agent's YES probability. Dashed = Polymarket. One color per market. Lines emerge after ≥2 days of data; day-1 runs show single points.
All 73 forecasts (click a column header to sort)
qidtitleAgent MarketΔ pp ResolvesResolved
2294941GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?32%12%+19.5pp2026-06-08
2303132GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?24%7%+17.0pp2026-06-05
2100070GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?94%79%+15.3pp2026-07-31
2364498US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 221%33%-12.0pp2026-05-29
2364499US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 332%42%-10.0pp2026-05-30
2268845GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?62%52%+9.5pp2026-06-15
2100069GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?86%77%+9.0pp2026-06-30
2241742Iran closes its airspace by June 30?34%26%+8.3pp2026-06-30
2296150Iran closes its airspace by June 15?28%20%+8.0pp2026-06-15
2354002US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 214%22%-7.5pp2026-05-28
2034722Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?30%24%+6.5pp2026-06-30
2133405Iran closes its airspace by May 31?14%9%+5.2pp2026-05-31
2354003US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 80%84%-5.0pp2026-06-30
2270338US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?70%66%+3.0pp2026-07-31
2270330US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?40%42%-2.0pp2026-06-15
2334107US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?32%34%-2.0pp2026-06-07
2364500US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 56%58%-2.0pp2026-06-03
631140Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 20277%79%-1.9pp2026-06-30
2183424US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?6%5%+1.5pp2026-06-30
2097648Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?9%10%-1.0pp2026-05-31
1809560Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?2%2%+0.7pp2026-05-31
2167541Iran closes its airspace by May 6?0%0%+0.5pp2026-05-31✓
1962237US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?52%53%-0.5pp2026-05-31
2133404Iran closes its airspace by May 8?0%0%+0.5pp2026-05-31✓
2167542Iran closes its airspace by May 7?0%0%+0.5pp2026-05-31✓
2125755GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?4%4%+0.5pp2026-05-31
631139Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?18%18%+0.5pp2026-06-30
906973Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Jun2%1%+0.3pp2026-06-17
631144Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?1%1%+0.2pp2026-06-30
906974Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June97%97%-0.2pp2026-06-17
1707932Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?0%0%-0.1pp2026-05-31
631148Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631152Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631142Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631146Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 20260%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631150Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
906975Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Jun1%1%+0.1pp2026-06-17
906972Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Ju0%1%-0.1pp2026-06-17
906976Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Ju0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-17
631141Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?2%2%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631143Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631145Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 20260%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631147Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631149Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631151Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631153Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
1919425US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?24%24%+0.0pp2026-05-31
1808970US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?1%1%+0.0pp2026-05-31
2132639Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?98%——2026-06-01✓
2182198Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?99%——2026-06-01✓
2132777Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?99%——2026-06-01✓
2230536Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?66%——2026-06-01✓
2074238Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?99%——2026-06-01✓
2132649Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?98%——2026-06-01✓
2132648Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?66%——2026-06-01✓
2182200Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in May?99%——2026-06-01✓
2182203Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?98%——2026-06-01✓
2230535Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?98%——2026-06-01✓
2132778Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?88%——2026-06-01✓
631155Will Company G have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
2006983US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?22%22%+0.0pp2026-12-31
2355076US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?12%——2026-07-31
2298742Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30?99%——2026-07-01✓
631154Will Company F have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
631156Will Company H have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
2155052US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?82%82%+0.0pp2026-12-31
631157Will any other company have the best AI model at the end of 0%——2026-06-30
2074239Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?99%——2026-06-01✓
2160165Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?99%——2026-06-01✓
2230534Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?99%——2026-06-01✓
2321568Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026?1%——2026-06-06✓
2298743Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by June 30?99%——2026-07-01✓
2298741Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by June 30?98%——2026-07-01✓