The FutureSim paper evaluates the agent against ground truth (Brier),
not against market price. Beating the market net of friction is a
strictly harder bar — these three gates have to clear before paper
becomes real. See docs/futuresim-research.md §
Real-money readiness.
| Gate | Current | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward-resolved marketsCounted only when the agent predicted a market while it was OPEN and then watched it resolve. Hindsight forecasts on already-closed markets (the RESULTS-SINCE-LAST-SESSION history bundled into every run) don't count. | 0 | ≥ 50 | NO |
| Net paper PnL (after 2% fee)Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar than the paper's Brier-vs-truth evaluation. | $+0.00 over 0 closed | > $0 across ≥ 50 closed | NO |
| Calibration RMSEReported only once gate 1 passes — RMSE on fewer than 50 resolved predictions is noise. | — | < 0.10 | NO |
❌ DO NOT BET real money — gates not yet cleared.
| Title | Agent | Market | Δ | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | 75% | 72% | +3.4pp | 2026-07-31 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | 65% | 64% | +1.5pp | 2026-07-31 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 1% | 1% | +0.1pp | 2026-05-31 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | 12% | 12% | +0.0pp | 2026-05-29 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? | 15% | 15% | +0.0pp | 2026-05-30 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 14% | 14% | +0.0pp | 2026-05-31 |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2026-06-05 |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? | 14% | 14% | +0.0pp | 2026-06-08 |
| Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? | 22% | 22% | +0.0pp | 2026-06-30 |
| qid | title | Agent | Market | Δ pp | Resolves | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2100070 | GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | 75% | 72% | +3.4pp | 2026-07-31 | |
2270338 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | 65% | 64% | +1.5pp | 2026-07-31 | |
1809560 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 1% | 1% | +0.1pp | 2026-05-31 | |
2364498 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 2 | 12% | 12% | +0.0pp | 2026-05-29 | |
2364499 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 3 | 15% | 15% | +0.0pp | 2026-05-30 | |
2364500 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June | 32% | 32% | +0.0pp | 2026-06-03 | |
2354003 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June | 67% | 67% | +0.0pp | 2026-06-30 | |
1919425 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 14% | 14% | +0.0pp | 2026-05-31 | |
2334107 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | 28% | 28% | +0.0pp | 2026-06-07 | |
1962237 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 44% | 44% | +0.0pp | 2026-05-31 | |
2270330 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 38% | 38% | +0.0pp | 2026-06-15 | |
2303132 | GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2026-06-05 | |
2294941 | GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? | 14% | 14% | +0.0pp | 2026-06-08 | |
2268845 | GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | 55% | 55% | +0.0pp | 2026-06-15 | |
2100069 | GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | 70% | 70% | +0.0pp | 2026-06-30 | |
2034722 | Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? | 22% | 22% | +0.0pp | 2026-06-30 | |
2298741 | Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by June 30? | 99% | — | — | 2026-07-01 | ✓ |