FutureSim — 2026-05-29

59 forecasts · 51 active · 8 resolved today · regenerated 2026-05-29 13:49Z
Paper PnL · cumulative
$+113.95 (14 open · $+22.00 realized)
Avg Brier (resolved today)
0.003 lower is better; 0 = perfect, 1 = totally wrong

Real-money readiness — paper-driven gates

The FutureSim paper evaluates the agent against ground truth (Brier), not against market price. Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar — these three gates have to clear before paper becomes real. See docs/futuresim-research.md § Real-money readiness.

GateCurrent ThresholdStatus
Forward-resolved marketsCounted only when the agent predicted a market while it was OPEN and then watched it resolve. Hindsight forecasts on already-closed markets (the RESULTS-SINCE-LAST-SESSION history bundled into every run) don't count.3≥ 50NO
Net paper PnL (after 2% fee)Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar than the paper's Brier-vs-truth evaluation.$+20.00 over 1 closed> $0 across ≥ 50 closedNO
Calibration RMSEReported only once gate 1 passes — RMSE on fewer than 50 resolved predictions is noise.—< 0.10NO

❌ DO NOT BET real money — gates not yet cleared.

Top edges — active markets

Deduped by question family so threshold ladders don't drown out other markets.
TitleAgentMarket ΔResolves
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?82%78%+4.0pp2026-12-31
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?21%18%+3.5pp2026-05-30
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?43%40%+3.5pp2026-06-03
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?22%20%+2.5pp2026-06-30
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?80%82%-2.0pp2026-06-30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?60%58%+1.5pp2026-07-31
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?23%24%-1.5pp2026-06-05
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?9%8%+1.5pp2026-05-31
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?20%19%+1.1pp2026-06-15
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?84%85%-0.8pp2026-07-31
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?24%24%+0.7pp2026-06-30
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?4%5%-0.7pp2026-05-31

Resolved today

TitleAgentTruthBrier
Iran closes its airspace by May 6?0%No0.000
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?0%No0.000
PnL curve
Calibration plot (forward-resolved predictions)

Belief evolution — top markets by edge

Solid = agent's YES probability. Dashed = Polymarket. One color per market. Lines emerge after ≥2 days of data; day-1 runs show single points.

Trade-the-move (convergence) — second PnL track

Same entries as the hold track, but each position is sold when the market price converges to the agent's number (green fill), stopped on a 15pp adverse move (amber), or held to resolution (fallback). Solid = agent, dashed = market; the shaded gap is the edge being harvested. Separate from the readiness gates — a parallel backtest.
StrategyRealizedAt risk (unrealized)Open
Hold to resolution$+22.00$+91.9514
Trade the move$+76.90$-5.504
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extens · NO · +$26.50 (converged, 1d)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extens · NO · +$21.00 (converged, 1d)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extens · NO · +$17.50 (converged, 1d)
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? · YES · +$8.85 (converged, 1d)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? · YES · $-7.00 (converged, 1d)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? · YES · +$6.05 (converged, 2d)
qidtitlesideentry→exitdaysexitP&L
2364499US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extensNO0.58→0.851converged+$26.50
2364498US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extensNO0.67→0.881converged+$21.00
2354002US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extensNO0.78→0.951converged+$17.50
2296150Iran closes its airspace by June 15?YES0.20→0.281converged+$8.85
2100069GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?YES0.77→0.701converged$-7.00
2100070GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?YES0.79→0.852converged+$6.05
All 59 forecasts (click a column header to sort)
qidtitleAgent MarketΔ pp ResolvesResolved
2155052US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?82%78%+4.0pp2026-12-31
2364499US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 321%18%+3.5pp2026-05-30
2364500US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 43%40%+3.5pp2026-06-03
2034722Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?22%20%+2.5pp2026-06-30
2364498US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 210%8%+2.0pp2026-05-29
2100069GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?80%82%-2.0pp2026-06-30
2270338US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?60%58%+1.5pp2026-07-31
2303132GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?23%24%-1.5pp2026-06-05
2268845GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?61%62%-1.5pp2026-06-15
2097648Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?9%8%+1.5pp2026-05-31
2296150Iran closes its airspace by June 15?20%19%+1.1pp2026-06-15
2334107US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?22%21%+1.0pp2026-06-07
2294941GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?34%35%-1.0pp2026-06-08
2100070GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?84%85%-0.8pp2026-07-31
2241742Iran closes its airspace by June 30?24%24%+0.7pp2026-06-30
2125755GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?4%5%-0.7pp2026-05-31
906973Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Jun2%1%+0.6pp2026-06-17
2354003US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 80%80%+0.5pp2026-06-30
1919425US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?12%12%+0.5pp2026-05-31
2270330US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?30%30%+0.5pp2026-06-15
2183424US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?5%4%+0.5pp2026-06-30
631139Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?12%12%+0.5pp2026-06-30
631144Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?1%1%+0.5pp2026-06-30
2133405Iran closes its airspace by May 31?6%5%+0.3pp2026-05-31
906974Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June97%98%-0.3pp2026-06-17
631140Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 20285%85%+0.1pp2026-06-30
906975Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Jun1%1%+0.1pp2026-06-17
2167541Iran closes its airspace by May 6?0%0%+0.1pp2026-05-31✓
2167542Iran closes its airspace by May 7?0%0%+0.1pp2026-05-31✓
2133404Iran closes its airspace by May 8?0%0%+0.1pp2026-05-31✓
1808970US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?0%1%-0.1pp2026-05-31
631142Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631143Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631145Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 20260%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631146Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 20260%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631147Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631148Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631149Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631150Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631151Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631152Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631153Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
906972Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Ju0%1%-0.1pp2026-06-17
906976Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Ju0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-17
1707932Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?0%0%+0.1pp2026-05-31
2132648Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?99%——2026-06-01✓
2230536Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?99%——2026-06-01✓
2132778Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?99%——2026-06-01✓
631141Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?3%3%+0.0pp2026-06-30
2321568Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 22, 2026?0%——2026-06-06✓
1809560Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?0%0%+0.0pp2026-05-31
631154Will Company F have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
631155Will Company G have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
631156Will Company H have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
631157Will any other company have the best AI model at the end of 0%——2026-06-30
1962237US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?44%44%+0.0pp2026-05-31
2006983US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?22%22%+0.0pp2026-12-31
2355076US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?12%——2026-07-31
2354002US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 214%——2026-05-28✓