FutureSim — 2026-05-30

51 forecasts · 51 active · 0 resolved today · regenerated 2026-05-30 01:14Z
Paper PnL · cumulative
$+65.10 (14 open · $+22.00 realized)
Avg Brier (resolved today)
— lower is better; 0 = perfect, 1 = totally wrong

Real-money readiness — paper-driven gates

The FutureSim paper evaluates the agent against ground truth (Brier), not against market price. Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar — these three gates have to clear before paper becomes real. See docs/futuresim-research.md § Real-money readiness.

GateCurrent ThresholdStatus
Forward-resolved marketsCounted only when the agent predicted a market while it was OPEN and then watched it resolve. Hindsight forecasts on already-closed markets (the RESULTS-SINCE-LAST-SESSION history bundled into every run) don't count.3≥ 50NO
Net paper PnL (after 2% fee)Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar than the paper's Brier-vs-truth evaluation.$+20.00 over 1 closed> $0 across ≥ 50 closedNO
Calibration RMSEReported only once gate 1 passes — RMSE on fewer than 50 resolved predictions is noise.—< 0.10NO

❌ DO NOT BET real money — gates not yet cleared.

Top edges — active markets

Deduped by question family so threshold ladders don't drown out other markets.
TitleAgentMarket ΔResolves
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?10%1%+8.6pp2026-05-29
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?13%12%+1.0pp2026-06-08
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?1%1%+0.6pp2026-06-30
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?10%10%+0.5pp2026-05-30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?6%6%+0.5pp2026-05-31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?36%36%+0.5pp2026-05-31
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?9%8%+0.5pp2026-06-05
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?12%12%+0.5pp2026-06-30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?5%6%-0.5pp2026-06-30
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?83%83%+0.4pp2026-06-30
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?2%1%+0.1pp2026-05-31
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?6%6%+0.1pp2026-05-31
PnL curve
Calibration plot (forward-resolved predictions)

Belief evolution — top markets by edge

Solid = agent's YES probability. Dashed = Polymarket. One color per market. Lines emerge after ≥2 days of data; day-1 runs show single points.
All 51 forecasts (click a column header to sort)
qidtitleAgent MarketΔ pp ResolvesResolved
2364498US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 210%1%+8.6pp2026-05-29
2294941GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?13%12%+1.0pp2026-06-08
631144Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?1%1%+0.6pp2026-06-30
2364499US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 310%10%+0.5pp2026-05-30
1919425US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?6%6%+0.5pp2026-05-31
1962237US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?36%36%+0.5pp2026-05-31
2334107US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?17%16%+0.5pp2026-06-07
2270330US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?23%22%+0.5pp2026-06-15
2270338US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?53%52%+0.5pp2026-07-31
2155052US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?76%76%+0.5pp2026-12-31
2354003US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 74%74%+0.5pp2026-06-30
2303132GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?9%8%+0.5pp2026-06-05
631139Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?12%12%+0.5pp2026-06-30
2100069GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?80%80%+0.5pp2026-06-30
2183424US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?5%6%-0.5pp2026-06-30
631140Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 20283%83%+0.4pp2026-06-30
2125755GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?2%1%+0.1pp2026-05-31
2133405Iran closes its airspace by May 31?6%6%+0.1pp2026-05-31
2296150Iran closes its airspace by June 15?16%16%+0.1pp2026-06-15
2241742Iran closes its airspace by June 30?22%22%-0.1pp2026-06-30
2100070GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?84%84%+0.1pp2026-07-31
2097648Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?4%4%+0.1pp2026-05-31
1707932Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?0%0%+0.1pp2026-05-31
1808970US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?0%0%-0.1pp2026-05-31
1809560Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?0%0%+0.1pp2026-05-31
906973Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Jun1%1%-0.1pp2026-06-17
906974Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June98%98%+0.1pp2026-06-17
906975Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Jun0%1%-0.1pp2026-06-17
906976Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Ju0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-17
631142Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631143Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631145Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 20260%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631146Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 20260%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631147Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631148Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631149Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631150Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631151Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631152Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631153Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
906972Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Ju0%1%-0.1pp2026-06-17
2364500US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 41%41%+0.0pp2026-06-03
2268845GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?57%57%+0.0pp2026-06-15
2034722Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?16%16%+0.0pp2026-06-30
631141Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?6%6%+0.0pp2026-06-30
631154Will Company F have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
631155Will Company G have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
631156Will Company H have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
631157Will any other company have the best AI model at the end of 0%——2026-06-30
2006983US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?22%22%+0.0pp2026-12-31
2355076US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?12%——2026-07-31