FutureSim — 2026-06-04

52 forecasts · 51 active · 1 resolved today · regenerated 2026-06-04 01:10Z
Paper PnL · cumulative
$+79.55 (11 open · $+87.55 realized)
Avg Brier (resolved today)
0.001 lower is better; 0 = perfect, 1 = totally wrong

Real-money readiness — paper-driven gates

The FutureSim paper evaluates the agent against ground truth (Brier), not against market price. Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar — these three gates have to clear before paper becomes real. See docs/futuresim-research.md § Real-money readiness.

GateCurrent ThresholdStatus
Forward-resolved marketsCounted only when the agent predicted a market while it was OPEN and then watched it resolve. Hindsight forecasts on already-closed markets (the RESULTS-SINCE-LAST-SESSION history bundled into every run) don't count.13≥ 50NO
Net paper PnL (after 2% fee)Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar than the paper's Brier-vs-truth evaluation.$+81.55 over 4 closed> $0 across ≥ 50 closedNO
Calibration RMSEReported only once gate 1 passes — RMSE on fewer than 50 resolved predictions is noise.—< 0.10NO

❌ DO NOT BET real money — gates not yet cleared.

Top edges — active markets

Deduped by question family so threshold ladders don't drown out other markets.
TitleAgentMarket ΔResolves
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?60%64%-4.0pp2026-10-31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?11%14%-3.5pp2026-06-15
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?29%32%-3.5pp2026-07-31
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?58%60%-2.5pp2026-06-30
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?24%27%-2.5pp2026-07-15
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?14%16%-2.0pp2026-06-30
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?4%3%+1.4pp2026-06-03
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?81%80%+1.3pp2026-06-30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?20%20%+1.0pp2026-12-31
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?4%3%+0.9pp2026-06-30
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?96%97%-0.8pp2026-07-31
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?1%0%+0.8pp2026-06-30
PnL curve
Calibration plot (forward-resolved predictions)

Belief evolution — top markets by edge

Solid = agent's YES probability. Dashed = Polymarket. One color per market. Lines emerge after ≥2 days of data; day-1 runs show single points.
All 52 forecasts (click a column header to sort)
qidtitleAgent MarketΔ pp ResolvesResolved
2413572US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?60%64%-4.0pp2026-10-31
2270330US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?11%14%-3.5pp2026-06-15
2413535Iran closes its airspace by July 31?29%32%-3.5pp2026-07-31
2413571US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?48%52%-3.0pp2026-08-31
2270338US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?40%38%+2.5pp2026-07-31
2354003US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 58%60%-2.5pp2026-06-30
2413534Iran closes its airspace by July 15?24%27%-2.5pp2026-07-15
631139Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?14%16%-2.0pp2026-06-30
2420782US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 4%3%+1.4pp2026-06-03
631140Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 20281%80%+1.3pp2026-06-30
2241742Iran closes its airspace by June 30?19%20%-1.3pp2026-06-30
2334107US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?4%5%-1.1pp2026-06-07
2429035Iran closes its airspace by June 22?18%19%-1.0pp2026-06-22
1962237US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?26%26%+1.0pp2026-05-31
2006983US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?20%20%+1.0pp2026-12-31
2183424US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?4%3%+0.9pp2026-06-30
2100070GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?96%97%-0.8pp2026-07-31
631144Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?1%0%+0.8pp2026-06-30
2420753US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17%18%-0.5pp2026-06-30
2155052US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?71%72%-0.5pp2026-12-31
2420738US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 73%74%-0.5pp2026-06-30
631141Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?4%3%+0.4pp2026-06-30
906974Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June98%98%-0.2pp2026-06-17
2303132GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?4%4%+0.2pp2026-06-05
2296150Iran closes its airspace by June 15?13%13%+0.1pp2026-06-15
631142Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631143Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631145Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 20260%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631146Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 20260%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631147Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631148Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631149Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631150Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631151Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631152Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631153Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
906972Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Ju0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-17
906973Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Jun1%1%+0.1pp2026-06-17
906975Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Jun0%1%-0.1pp2026-06-17
906976Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Ju0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-17
2429034Iran closes its airspace by June 8?4%4%+0.0pp2026-06-08
2268845GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?66%66%+0.0pp2026-06-15
2100069GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?92%92%+0.0pp2026-06-30
2340844US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12%12%+0.0pp2026-06-30
2294941GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?10%10%+0.0pp2026-06-08
631154Will Company F have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
631155Will Company G have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
631156Will Company H have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
631157Will any other company have the best AI model at the end of 0%——2026-06-30
2034722Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?13%13%+0.0pp2026-06-30
2355076US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?9%——2026-07-31
2364500US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3%——2026-06-03✓