FutureSim — 2026-06-14

47 forecasts · 47 active · 0 resolved today · regenerated 2026-06-14 01:09Z
Paper PnL · cumulative
$+171.10 (7 open · $+223.00 realized)
Avg Brier (resolved today)
— lower is better; 0 = perfect, 1 = totally wrong

Real-money readiness — paper-driven gates

The FutureSim paper evaluates the agent against ground truth (Brier), not against market price. Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar — these three gates have to clear before paper becomes real. See docs/futuresim-research.md § Real-money readiness.

GateCurrent ThresholdStatus
Forward-resolved marketsCounted only when the agent predicted a market while it was OPEN and then watched it resolve. Hindsight forecasts on already-closed markets (the RESULTS-SINCE-LAST-SESSION history bundled into every run) don't count.25≥ 50NO
Net paper PnL (after 2% fee)Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar than the paper's Brier-vs-truth evaluation.$+213.00 over 8 closed> $0 across ≥ 50 closedNO
Calibration RMSEReported only once gate 1 passes — RMSE on fewer than 50 resolved predictions is noise.—< 0.10NO

❌ DO NOT BET real money — gates not yet cleared.

Top edges — active markets

Deduped by question family so threshold ladders don't drown out other markets.
TitleAgentMarket ΔResolves
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?26%48%-22.0pp2026-05-31
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?15%3%+11.7pp2026-06-13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?58%62%-3.5pp2026-07-31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?86%88%-2.5pp2026-06-30
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?96%95%+1.9pp2026-07-31
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?19%18%+1.5pp2026-12-31
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?52%51%+1.0pp2026-06-16
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?41%42%-0.5pp2026-06-22
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?10%10%+0.5pp2026-06-30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?6%6%+0.5pp2026-06-30
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?2%2%-0.2pp2026-06-15
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?3%3%+0.2pp2026-06-30
PnL curve
Calibration plot (forward-resolved predictions)

Belief evolution — top markets by edge

Solid = agent's YES probability. Dashed = Polymarket. One color per market. Lines emerge after ≥2 days of data; day-1 runs show single points.
All 47 forecasts (click a column header to sort)
qidtitleAgent MarketΔ pp ResolvesResolved
1962237US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?26%48%-22.0pp2026-05-31
2508397US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15%3%+11.7pp2026-06-13
2270338US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?58%62%-3.5pp2026-07-31
2413571US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?67%70%-2.5pp2026-08-31
2155052US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?80%82%-2.5pp2026-12-31
631140Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 20286%88%-2.5pp2026-06-30
2413572US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?74%76%-2.0pp2026-10-31
2100070GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?96%95%+1.9pp2026-07-31
2270330US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?23%25%-1.8pp2026-06-15
2006983US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?19%18%+1.5pp2026-12-31
2508399US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 52%51%+1.0pp2026-06-16
2354003US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 78%79%-1.0pp2026-06-30
2508398US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 25%24%+0.5pp2026-06-14
2420738US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 87%88%-0.5pp2026-06-30
2493076GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?41%42%-0.5pp2026-06-22
631139Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?10%10%+0.5pp2026-06-30
2492625US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?6%6%+0.5pp2026-06-30
2268845GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?2%2%-0.2pp2026-06-15
631141Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?3%3%+0.2pp2026-06-30
906974Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June99%99%-0.2pp2026-06-17
631145Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 20260%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
906975Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Jun0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-17
631142Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631143Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631144Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631146Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 20260%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631147Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631148Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631149Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631150Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631151Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631152Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631153Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
906972Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Ju0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-17
906973Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Jun0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-17
906976Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Ju0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-17
2183424US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?2%2%+0.1pp2026-06-30
2508400US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 60%60%+0.0pp2026-06-17
2508401US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 64%64%+0.0pp2026-06-18
2508402US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 67%67%+0.0pp2026-06-19
2100069GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?77%77%+0.0pp2026-06-30
2034722Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?10%10%+0.0pp2026-06-30
631154Will Company F have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
631155Will Company G have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
631156Will Company H have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
631157Will any other company have the best AI model at the end of 0%——2026-06-30
2355076US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?6%——2026-07-31