FutureSim — 2026-06-17

41 forecasts · 36 active · 5 resolved today · regenerated 2026-06-17 01:08Z
Paper PnL · cumulative
$+237.90 (5 open · $+233.45 realized)
Avg Brier (resolved today)
0.113 lower is better; 0 = perfect, 1 = totally wrong

Real-money readiness — paper-driven gates

The FutureSim paper evaluates the agent against ground truth (Brier), not against market price. Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar — these three gates have to clear before paper becomes real. See docs/futuresim-research.md § Real-money readiness.

GateCurrent ThresholdStatus
Forward-resolved marketsCounted only when the agent predicted a market while it was OPEN and then watched it resolve. Hindsight forecasts on already-closed markets (the RESULTS-SINCE-LAST-SESSION history bundled into every run) don't count.36≥ 50NO
Net paper PnL (after 2% fee)Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar than the paper's Brier-vs-truth evaluation.$+219.45 over 11 closed> $0 across ≥ 50 closedNO
Calibration RMSEReported only once gate 1 passes — RMSE on fewer than 50 resolved predictions is noise.—< 0.10NO

❌ DO NOT BET real money — gates not yet cleared.

Top edges — active markets

Deduped by question family so threshold ladders don't drown out other markets.
TitleAgentMarket ΔResolves
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?4%2%+1.2pp2026-06-30
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?26%26%-1.0pp2026-06-22
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?6%5%+0.5pp2026-06-30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?100%100%-0.2pp2026-07-31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?100%100%-0.2pp2026-08-31
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?1%1%-0.1pp2026-06-30
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?95%95%+0.1pp2026-07-31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?91%91%+0.1pp2026-06-30
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30

Resolved today

TitleAgentTruthBrier
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?100%Yes0.000
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?100%Yes0.000
PnL curve
Calibration plot (forward-resolved predictions)

Belief evolution — top markets by edge

Solid = agent's YES probability. Dashed = Polymarket. One color per market. Lines emerge after ≥2 days of data; day-1 runs show single points.
All 41 forecasts (click a column header to sort)
qidtitleAgent MarketΔ pp ResolvesResolved
631141Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?4%2%+1.2pp2026-06-30
2493076GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?26%26%-1.0pp2026-06-22
631139Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?6%5%+0.5pp2026-06-30
2270338US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?100%100%-0.2pp2026-07-31
2413571US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?100%100%-0.2pp2026-08-31
2413572US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?100%100%-0.2pp2026-10-31
2155052US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?100%100%-0.2pp2026-12-31
631145Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 20260%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
2183424US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?1%1%-0.1pp2026-06-30
2508401US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 100%100%-0.1pp2026-06-18✓
2508402US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 100%100%-0.1pp2026-06-19✓
2100070GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?95%95%+0.1pp2026-07-31
631140Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 20291%91%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631142Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631143Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631144Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%-0.1pp2026-06-30
631146Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 20260%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631147Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631148Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631149Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631150Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631151Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631152Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
631153Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%0%+0.1pp2026-06-30
2492625US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?4%3%+0.1pp2026-06-30
906974Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June100%100%+0.0pp2026-06-17
906973Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Jun0%0%+0.0pp2026-06-17
2100069GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?79%79%+0.0pp2026-06-30
2034722Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?10%10%+0.0pp2026-06-30
631154Will Company F have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
631155Will Company G have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
631156Will Company H have the best AI model at the end of June 2020%——2026-06-30
631157Will any other company have the best AI model at the end of 0%——2026-06-30
906972Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Ju0%0%+0.0pp2026-06-17
906975Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Jun0%0%+0.0pp2026-06-17
906976Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Ju0%0%+0.0pp2026-06-17
2006983US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?14%14%+0.0pp2026-12-31
2355076US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?4%——2026-07-31
1962237US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?26%——2026-05-31✓
2270330US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?94%——2026-06-15✓
2508397US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15%——2026-06-13✓