FutureSim — 2026-07-02

16 forecasts · 16 active · 0 resolved today · regenerated 2026-07-02 01:07Z

Paper PnL · cumulative

$+192.35 (5 open · $+156.45 realized)

Avg Brier (resolved today)

— lower is better; 0 = perfect, 1 = totally wrong

Real-money readiness — paper-driven gates

The FutureSim paper evaluates the agent against ground truth (Brier), not against market price. Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar — these three gates have to clear before paper becomes real. See docs/futuresim-research.md § Real-money readiness.

Gate	Current	Threshold	Status
Forward-resolved marketsCounted only when the agent predicted a market while it was OPEN and then watched it resolve. Hindsight forecasts on already-closed markets (the RESULTS-SINCE-LAST-SESSION history bundled into every run) don't count.	68	≥ 50	PASS ✓
Net paper PnL (after 2% fee)Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar than the paper's Brier-vs-truth evaluation.	$+142.45 over 12 closed	> $0 across ≥ 50 closed	NO
Calibration RMSEReported only once gate 1 passes — RMSE on fewer than 50 resolved predictions is noise.	0.137	< 0.10	NO

❌ DO NOT BET real money — gates not yet cleared.

Top edges — active markets

Deduped by question family so threshold ladders don't drown out other markets.

Title	Agent	Market	Δ	Resolves
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?	83%	88%	-4.5pp	2026-07-15
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?	85%	89%	-4.0pp	2026-07-17
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	10%	12%	-2.5pp	2026-12-31
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?	6%	6%	-1.0pp	2026-09-30
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	2%	1%	+0.9pp	2026-06-30

Title

Agent

Market

Resolves

GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?

83%

88%

-4.5pp

2026-07-15

GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?

85%

89%

-4.0pp

2026-07-17

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

10%

12%

-2.5pp

2026-12-31

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?

-1.0pp

2026-09-30

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?

+0.9pp

2026-06-30

PnL curve

Calibration plot (forward-resolved predictions)

Belief evolution — top markets by edge

Solid = agent's YES probability. Dashed = Polymarket. One color per market. Lines emerge after ≥2 days of data; day-1 runs show single points.

All 16 forecasts (click a column header to sort)

qid	title	Agent	Market	Δ pp	Resolves
`2658111`	GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?	83%	88%	-4.5pp	2026-07-15
`2648984`	GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?	85%	89%	-4.0pp	2026-07-17
`2658110`	GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?	78%	82%	-3.5pp	2026-07-13
`2648866`	GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?	77%	80%	-3.0pp	2026-07-10
`2658039`	GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?	64%	66%	-2.5pp	2026-07-08
`2006983`	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	10%	12%	-2.5pp	2026-12-31
`2100070`	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	93%	95%	-2.0pp	2026-07-31
`2648985`	GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?	90%	92%	-1.9pp	2026-07-24
`2757753`	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?	6%	6%	-1.0pp	2026-09-30
`2034722`	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	2%	1%	+0.9pp	2026-06-30
`2760614`	GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?	50%	50%	+0.5pp	2026-07-07
`2760620`	GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	70%	70%	+0.5pp	2026-07-09
`2648798`	GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?	3%	3%	-0.1pp	2026-07-03
`2658038`	GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	4%	4%	+0.0pp	2026-07-06
`2355076`	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?	2%	—	—	2026-07-31
`2492625`	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?	2%	2%	+0.0pp	2026-06-30