The FutureSim paper evaluates the agent against ground truth (Brier),
not against market price. Beating the market net of friction is a
strictly harder bar — these three gates have to clear before paper
becomes real. See docs/futuresim-research.md §
Real-money readiness.
| Gate | Current | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward-resolved marketsCounted only when the agent predicted a market while it was OPEN and then watched it resolve. Hindsight forecasts on already-closed markets (the RESULTS-SINCE-LAST-SESSION history bundled into every run) don't count. | 70 | ≥ 50 | PASS ✓ |
| Net paper PnL (after 2% fee)Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar than the paper's Brier-vs-truth evaluation. | $+118.95 over 13 closed | > $0 across ≥ 50 closed | NO |
| Calibration RMSEReported only once gate 1 passes — RMSE on fewer than 50 resolved predictions is noise. | 0.135 | < 0.10 | NO |
❌ DO NOT BET real money — gates not yet cleared.
| Title | Agent | Market | Δ | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? | 86% | 89% | -2.5pp | 2026-07-15 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | 10% | 12% | -2.5pp | 2026-12-31 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026? | 74% | 71% | +2.5pp | 2026-07-09 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? | 6% | 4% | +1.0pp | 2026-09-30 |
| qid | title | Agent | Market | Δ pp | Resolves | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2658111 | GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026? | 86% | 89% | -2.5pp | 2026-07-15 | |
2006983 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | 10% | 12% | -2.5pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2760620 | GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026? | 74% | 71% | +2.5pp | 2026-07-09 | |
2760614 | GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026? | 13% | 12% | +1.5pp | 2026-07-07 | |
2648866 | GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? | 76% | 75% | +1.5pp | 2026-07-10 | |
2757753 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? | 6% | 4% | +1.0pp | 2026-09-30 | |
2648985 | GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? | 95% | 96% | -0.9pp | 2026-07-24 | |
2492625 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? | 2% | 1% | +0.7pp | 2026-06-30 | |
2658039 | GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? | 16% | 16% | +0.5pp | 2026-07-08 | |
2648984 | GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? | 90% | 91% | -0.5pp | 2026-07-17 | |
2100070 | GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | 96% | 97% | -0.5pp | 2026-07-31 | |
2658038 | GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? | 1% | 1% | +0.1pp | 2026-07-06 | |
2355076 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? | 2% | — | — | 2026-07-31 | |
2658110 | GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? | 80% | 80% | +0.0pp | 2026-07-13 |