FutureSim — 2026-07-07

14 forecasts · 13 active · 1 resolved today · regenerated 2026-07-07 01:06Z

Paper PnL · cumulative

$+292.45 (6 open · $+179.45 realized)

Avg Brier (resolved today)

0.000 lower is better; 0 = perfect, 1 = totally wrong

Real-money readiness — paper-driven gates

The FutureSim paper evaluates the agent against ground truth (Brier), not against market price. Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar — these three gates have to clear before paper becomes real. See docs/futuresim-research.md § Real-money readiness.

Gate	Current	Threshold	Status
Forward-resolved marketsCounted only when the agent predicted a market while it was OPEN and then watched it resolve. Hindsight forecasts on already-closed markets (the RESULTS-SINCE-LAST-SESSION history bundled into every run) don't count.	71	≥ 50	PASS ✓
Net paper PnL (after 2% fee)Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar than the paper's Brier-vs-truth evaluation.	$+163.45 over 14 closed	> $0 across ≥ 50 closed	NO
Calibration RMSEReported only once gate 1 passes — RMSE on fewer than 50 resolved predictions is noise.	0.134	< 0.10	NO

❌ DO NOT BET real money — gates not yet cleared.

Top edges — active markets

Deduped by question family so threshold ladders don't drown out other markets.

Title	Agent	Market	Δ	Resolves
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	10%	12%	-2.5pp	2026-12-31
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?	95%	93%	+2.4pp	2026-07-24
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?	80%	82%	-1.5pp	2026-07-13
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?	6%	4%	+1.0pp	2026-09-30

Title

Agent

Market

Resolves

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

10%

12%

-2.5pp

2026-12-31

GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?

95%

93%

+2.4pp

2026-07-24

GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?

80%

82%

-1.5pp

2026-07-13

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?

+1.0pp

2026-09-30

PnL curve

Calibration plot (forward-resolved predictions)

Belief evolution — top markets by edge

Solid = agent's YES probability. Dashed = Polymarket. One color per market. Lines emerge after ≥2 days of data; day-1 runs show single points.

All 14 forecasts (click a column header to sort)

qid	title	Agent	Market	Δ pp	Resolves	Resolved
`2006983`	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	10%	12%	-2.5pp	2026-12-31
`2648985`	GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?	95%	93%	+2.4pp	2026-07-24
`2658110`	GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?	80%	82%	-1.5pp	2026-07-13
`2658111`	GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?	86%	88%	-1.5pp	2026-07-15
`2760620`	GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	78%	76%	+1.0pp	2026-07-09
`2757753`	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?	6%	4%	+1.0pp	2026-09-30
`2492625`	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?	2%	1%	+0.7pp	2026-06-30
`2658039`	GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?	8%	8%	-0.5pp	2026-07-08
`2648866`	GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?	81%	80%	+0.5pp	2026-07-10
`2100070`	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	96%	97%	-0.2pp	2026-07-31
`2648984`	GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?	90%	90%	+0.1pp	2026-07-17
`2760614`	GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?	5%	5%	+0.0pp	2026-07-07
`2355076`	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?	2%	—	—	2026-07-31
`2658038`	GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	1%	—	—	2026-07-06	✓