FutureSim — 2026-08-04

256 forecasts · 228 active · 28 resolved today · regenerated 2026-08-04 21:00Z
Paper PnL · cumulative
$+246.25 (2 open · $+246.75 realized)
Avg Brier (resolved today)
0.039 lower is better; 0 = perfect, 1 = totally wrong
Signals not traded (untradable book)
1 edges ≥ 5pp on markets with no fillable book — forecast and scored, but not traded
Skill vs market (all forward-resolved)
0.025 vs 0.034 agent vs market Brier over 91 resolutions · 1.4× closer · head-to-head 31/35/25

Real-money readiness — paper-driven gates

The FutureSim paper evaluates the agent against ground truth (Brier), not against market price. Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar — these three gates have to clear before paper becomes real. See docs/futuresim-research.md § Real-money readiness.

GateCurrent ThresholdStatus
Forward-resolved marketsCounted only when the agent predicted a market while it was OPEN and then watched it resolve. Hindsight forecasts on already-closed markets (the RESULTS-SINCE-LAST-SESSION history bundled into every run) don't count.97≥ 50PASS ✓
Net paper PnL (after taker fees)Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar than the paper's Brier-vs-truth evaluation. Fees use Polymarket's live per-category taker caps per 100 shares (geopolitics $0, politics/macro/AI $1.00, crypto $1.75) charged at entry — redemption at resolution is free.$+229.02 over 20 closed> $0 across ≥ 50 closedNO
Calibration RMSEReported only once gate 1 passes — RMSE on fewer than 50 resolved predictions is noise.0.138< 0.10NO

❌ DO NOT BET real money — gates not yet cleared.

Gates pool across models by design — they measure the system (harness + evidence + watchlist + model), so a model swap carries the evidence forward instead of resetting. Forward-resolved by agent: minimalHarness_gpt-55_001 (97).

Top edges — active markets

Deduped by question family so threshold ladders don't drown out other markets.
TitleAgentMarket ΔResolves
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?4%13%-9.0pp2026-08-04
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 6, 2026?12%17%-5.5pp2026-08-06
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?29%26%+3.5pp2026-09-01
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in August?14%16%-2.2pp2026-09-01
Will Solana reach $80 in August?55%56%-2.0pp2026-09-01
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in August?42%40%+2.0pp2026-09-01
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in August?91%93%-1.3pp2026-09-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?62%62%+1.0pp2026-08-15
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?78%80%-1.0pp2026-09-01
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?42%40%+1.0pp2026-09-01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?55%54%+1.0pp2026-08-31
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?74%73%+1.0pp2026-09-30

Resolved today

TitleAgentTruthBrier
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in August?100%Yes0.000
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in August?100%Yes0.000
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $208 in August?100%Yes0.000
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?0%No0.000
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?100%Yes0.000
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in August?100%Yes0.000
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in August?100%Yes0.000
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?100%Yes0.000

Skill — cumulative Brier, agent vs market

Every market the agent predicted while it was OPEN and then watched resolve, in resolution order. Agent's last forecast vs the market's last open price, both scored against the outcome. Lower is better; the gap is the edge. The market price is same-day or fresher than the agent's carried belief, so the comparison never favours the agent. Those 91 resolutions span 29 title families (largest: 16 rungs of “will wti crude oil”). Ladder rungs of one question correlate almost perfectly, so the effective sample is closer to the family count than to the resolution count — and topics can correlate across families too.
PnL curve
Calibration plot (forward-resolved predictions)
Bars are 95% Wilson intervals. A bin holding 1–4 predictions spans most of the chart — that is sample starvation, not miscalibration.

Belief evolution — top markets by edge

Solid = agent's YES probability. Dashed = Polymarket. One color per market. Lines emerge after ≥2 days of data; day-1 runs show single points.

Execution — trigger loop

shadow — logs intended orders, places none · 2 ticks today · last 21:00 · 1 open intent(s), $4.20 deployed
TimeMarketSideSharesLimitEdgeEst. EVHorizon
21:00Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?NO50.84-5.5pp2.96pp28d

Trade-the-move (convergence) — second PnL track

Same entries as the hold track, but each position is sold when the market price converges to the agent's number (green fill), stopped on a 15pp adverse move (amber), or held to resolution (fallback). Solid = agent, dashed = market; the shaded gap is the edge being harvested. Separate from the readiness gates — a parallel backtest.
StrategyRealizedAt risk (unrealized)Open
Hold to resolution$+246.75$-0.502
Trade the move$+136.70$+0.001
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? · NO · +$45.00 (converged, 1d)
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026? · NO · +$35.00 (converged, 1d)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extens · NO · +$26.50 (converged, 1d)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? · YES · $-24.50 (resolved, 70d)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extens · NO · +$21.00 (converged, 1d)
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? · NO · +$20.50 (converged, 1d)
qidtitlesideentry→exitdaysexitP&L
2658039GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?NO0.40→0.841converged+$45.00
2760614GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?NO0.54→0.891converged+$35.00
2364499US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extensNO0.58→0.851converged+$26.50
2132637Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?YES0.24→0.0070resolved$-24.50
2364498US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extensNO0.67→0.881converged+$21.00
2658038GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?NO0.54→0.741converged+$20.50
All 256 forecasts (click a column header to sort)
qidtitleAgent MarketΔ pp ResolvesResolved
3253007Will Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?4%13%-9.0pp2026-08-04
3253009Will Iran target a Arab country on August 6, 2026?12%17%-5.5pp2026-08-06
3096413Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?29%26%+3.5pp2026-09-01
3096167Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in August?14%16%-2.2pp2026-09-01
3257445Will Solana reach $80 in August?55%56%-2.0pp2026-09-01
3096170Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in August?42%40%+2.0pp2026-09-01
3253029Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026?13%14%-1.5pp2026-08-25
3257395Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in August?91%93%-1.3pp2026-09-01
3096172Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 in August?64%62%+1.0pp2026-09-01
2910437US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?62%62%+1.0pp2026-08-15
3253013Will Iran target a Arab country on August 9, 2026?18%16%+1.0pp2026-08-09
3253024Will Iran target a Arab country on August 20, 2026?13%14%-1.0pp2026-08-20
3307942Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?78%80%-1.0pp2026-09-01
3257399Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?42%40%+1.0pp2026-09-01
2911832US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?55%54%+1.0pp2026-08-31
3253027Will Iran target a Arab country on August 23, 2026?12%12%-1.0pp2026-08-23
2487206Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?74%73%+1.0pp2026-09-30
3247642US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?70%70%+1.0pp2026-09-30
3340541Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?66%65%+1.0pp2026-09-01
3257346Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?26%28%-1.0pp2026-09-01
2757753US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?4%4%+1.0pp2026-09-30
3096416Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?5%6%-0.8pp2026-09-01
3253008Will Iran target a Arab country on August 5, 2026?9%10%-0.5pp2026-08-05
3145192Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 5, 2026?89%90%-0.5pp2026-08-05
2937526US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?78%79%-0.5pp2026-08-14
3253012Will Iran target a Arab country on August 8, 2026?17%16%+0.5pp2026-08-08
3096385Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 in August?35%36%-0.5pp2026-09-01
3257344Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?13%14%-0.5pp2026-09-01
3223003Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on Augus28%27%+0.5pp2026-08-31
3257391Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in August?18%18%-0.5pp2026-09-01
3096179Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in August?5%6%-0.5pp2026-09-01
3096384Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in August?25%26%-0.5pp2026-09-01
3091050US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?34%34%+0.5pp2026-08-15
3253020Will Iran target a Arab country on August 16, 2026?14%14%-0.5pp2026-08-16
3253028Will Iran target a Arab country on August 24, 2026?10%10%+0.5pp2026-08-24
3257348Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?54%55%-0.5pp2026-09-01
3257390Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in August?8%9%-0.5pp2026-09-01
3257405Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in August?6%5%+0.5pp2026-09-01
3257392Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in August?31%32%-0.5pp2026-09-01
3257393Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?59%60%-0.5pp2026-09-01
3096387Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 in August?74%74%+0.5pp2026-09-01
3102467Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?28%28%+0.5pp2026-09-01
3145209Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 22, 202684%84%-0.5pp2026-08-22
3253015Will Iran target a Arab country on August 11, 2026?17%16%+0.5pp2026-08-11
3253019Will Iran target a Arab country on August 15, 2026?14%13%+0.5pp2026-08-15
3275540Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?84%84%-0.5pp2026-10-31
3257448Will Solana dip to $60 in August?12%12%-0.5pp2026-09-01
3257355Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?43%42%+0.5pp2026-09-01
3096169Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in August?22%22%+0.5pp2026-09-01
2006983US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?10%10%+0.5pp2026-12-31
3102465Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?95%94%+0.5pp2026-09-01
3257439Will Solana reach $110 in August?2%2%-0.1pp2026-09-01
3128889US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?39%39%+0.1pp2026-08-07
3102463Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in August?100%100%-0.1pp2026-09-01✓
3096414Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in August?100%100%-0.1pp2026-09-01✓
3096174Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $208 in August?100%100%-0.1pp2026-09-01✓
2252243Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep1%1%+0.1pp2026-09-16
2487204Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-09-30✓
3290978Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?100%100%-0.1pp2026-09-01✓
3310012Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?100%100%-0.1pp2026-09-01✓
3096175Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in August?100%100%-0.1pp2026-09-01✓
3096389Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in August?100%100%-0.1pp2026-09-01✓
3257352Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?100%100%-0.1pp2026-09-01✓
3247965Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?100%100%+0.1pp2026-08-04
2874988Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 2%2%-0.1pp2026-08-07
3223002Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $5.50 on August 31, 2024%23%+0.1pp2026-08-31
3096388Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $60 in August?100%100%-0.1pp2026-09-01
3096181Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in August?2%2%+0.1pp2026-09-01
3257364Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August?3%3%+0.1pp2026-09-01
2925081Will annual inflation be 4.0% in July?0%0%+0.1pp2026-08-12
3257342Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?6%6%-0.1pp2026-09-01
3257336Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?1%1%+0.1pp2026-09-01
3257416Will Ethereum dip to $900 in August?0%0%+0.1pp2026-09-01
3257389Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in August?4%4%-0.1pp2026-09-01
3096420Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in August?0%0%+0.1pp2026-09-01
3145191Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 4, 2026?82%82%+0.0pp2026-08-04
3145193Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 6, 2026?78%78%+0.0pp2026-08-06
3275538Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?29%29%+0.0pp2026-08-30
3240666Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any d28%28%+0.0pp2026-08-31
2925074Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?33%33%+0.0pp2026-08-12
3253010Will Iran target a Arab country on August 7, 2026?13%13%+0.0pp2026-08-07
3091787US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?4%4%+0.0pp2026-08-07
3145194Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 7, 2026?78%78%+0.0pp2026-08-07
3240665Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any d44%44%+0.0pp2026-08-31
3096166Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in August?8%8%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3240667Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any d28%28%+0.0pp2026-08-31
2925072Will annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?2%2%+0.0pp2026-08-12
3145195Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 8, 2026?76%76%+0.0pp2026-08-08
2925075Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?44%44%+0.0pp2026-08-12
3206142Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 74%74%+0.0pp2026-08-14
2925083Will annual inflation be 4.2% or more in July?0%0%+0.0pp2026-08-12
3096415Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?60%60%+0.0pp2026-09-01
2853652Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?56%56%+0.0pp2026-08-31
3096173Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 in August?88%88%+0.0pp2026-09-01
2853307Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?1%1%+0.0pp2026-08-07
3096178Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in August?16%16%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3096176Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in August?44%44%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3096382Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August?8%8%+0.0pp2026-09-01
2910438US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?72%72%+0.0pp2026-08-31
3145196Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 9, 2026?85%85%+0.0pp2026-08-09
3145199Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 12, 202681%81%+0.0pp2026-08-12
3145203Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 16, 202686%86%+0.0pp2026-08-16
2925076Will annual inflation be 3.5% in July?16%16%+0.0pp2026-08-12
2925077Will annual inflation be 3.6% in July?2%2%+0.0pp2026-08-12
2925073Will annual inflation be 3.2% in July?5%5%+0.0pp2026-08-12
3253016Will Iran target a Arab country on August 12, 2026?14%14%+0.0pp2026-08-12
2853384Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?1%1%+0.0pp2026-08-14
3128786Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?94%94%+0.0pp2026-08-09
3206143Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 76%76%+0.0pp2026-08-21
3275537Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026?2%2%+0.0pp2026-08-15
3257433Will Solana reach $140 in August?1%1%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3223006Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $7.50 on Augus4%4%+0.0pp2026-08-31
3240664Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any d64%64%+0.0pp2026-08-31
3240692Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?16%16%+0.0pp2026-08-15
3257332Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?0%0%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3096177Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in August?30%30%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3096180Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in August?4%4%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257384Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in August?1%1%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257397Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in August?74%74%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257413Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in August?0%0%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3096383Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in August?12%12%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3102462Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?12%12%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3096390Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in August?60%60%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257382Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?1%1%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3102464Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?6%6%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3240668Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any d7%7%+0.0pp2026-08-31
3240669Will at least 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any 4%4%+0.0pp2026-08-31
3145197Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 10, 202684%84%+0.0pp2026-08-10
3145200Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 13, 202683%83%+0.0pp2026-08-13
3145201Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 14, 202686%86%+0.0pp2026-08-14
3145204Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 17, 202686%86%+0.0pp2026-08-17
3145205Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 18, 202687%87%+0.0pp2026-08-18
3145207Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 20, 202686%86%+0.0pp2026-08-20
3145211Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 24, 202683%83%+0.0pp2026-08-24
3145213Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 26, 202688%88%+0.0pp2026-08-26
3145215Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 28, 202688%88%+0.0pp2026-08-28
2925078Will annual inflation be 3.7% in July?0%0%+0.0pp2026-08-12
2925080Will annual inflation be 3.9% in July?1%1%+0.0pp2026-08-12
2925079Will annual inflation be 3.8% in July?0%0%+0.0pp2026-08-12
3253014Will Iran target a Arab country on August 10, 2026?15%15%+0.0pp2026-08-10
3253017Will Iran target a Arab country on August 13, 2026?14%14%+0.0pp2026-08-13
3253018Will Iran target a Arab country on August 14, 2026?10%10%+0.0pp2026-08-14
3253022Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026?14%14%+0.0pp2026-08-18
2853462Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?14%14%+0.0pp2026-08-21
3253026Will Iran target a Arab country on August 22, 2026?12%12%+0.0pp2026-08-22
3253030Will Iran target a Arab country on August 26, 2026?13%13%+0.0pp2026-08-26
3253032Will Iran target a Arab country on August 28, 2026?14%14%+0.0pp2026-08-28
3253034Will Iran target a Arab country on August 30, 2026?12%12%+0.0pp2026-08-30
3257447Will Solana dip to $70 in August?64%64%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257437Will Solana reach $120 in August?2%2%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257451Will Solana dip to $30 in August?0%0%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257435Will Solana reach $130 in August?1%1%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257441Will Solana reach $100 in August?3%3%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257452Will Solana dip to $20 in August?0%0%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3223004Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on Augus21%21%+0.0pp2026-08-31
3223007Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.50 on August 31, 20212%12%+0.0pp2026-08-31
2413571US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?100%——2026-08-31✓
3257368Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in August?1%1%+0.0pp2026-09-01
2252242Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se1%1%+0.0pp2026-09-16
3257338Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?2%2%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257370Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?1%1%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257334Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?1%1%+0.0pp2026-09-01
2006983US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?10%10%+0.0pp2026-12-31
3257386Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August?2%2%+0.0pp2026-09-01
2252244Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept50%50%+0.0pp2026-09-16
2252245Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep48%48%+0.0pp2026-09-16
3257401Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August?22%22%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257403Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in August?11%11%+0.0pp2026-09-01
2252246Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se2%2%+0.0pp2026-09-16
3257409Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in August?2%2%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257407Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in August?3%3%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257411Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in August?1%1%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3128888US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?92%92%+0.0pp2026-10-31
3257388Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in August?2%2%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3096386Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in August?46%46%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257366Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in August?2%2%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3102466Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?2%2%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3096393Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in August?11%11%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3096394Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in August?6%6%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3145198Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 11, 202682%82%+0.0pp2026-08-11
3096391Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in August?40%40%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3096395Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in August?3%3%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3145202Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 15, 202684%84%+0.0pp2026-08-15
3128585Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in August?2%2%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3203595US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31?1%1%+0.0pp2026-08-31
3096392Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in August?18%18%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3145206Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 19, 202690%90%+0.0pp2026-08-19
3096417Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in August?1%1%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3145208Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 21, 202684%84%+0.0pp2026-08-21
3145210Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 202685%85%+0.0pp2026-08-23
3096418Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in August?0%0%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3145212Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 25, 202690%90%+0.0pp2026-08-25
2937527US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?82%82%+0.0pp2026-08-31
3145214Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 27, 202686%86%+0.0pp2026-08-27
3096419Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in August?0%0%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3145216Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 202687%87%+0.0pp2026-08-29
3145217Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 30, 202673%73%+0.0pp2026-08-30
3145218Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 31, 202686%86%+0.0pp2026-08-31
2952488Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?86%86%+0.0pp2026-08-15
3096407Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in August?0%0%+0.0pp2026-09-01
2925082Will annual inflation be 4.1% in July?0%0%+0.0pp2026-08-12
3096408Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?1%1%+0.0pp2026-09-01
2952493Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?76%76%+0.0pp2026-08-31
676829Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?91%91%+0.0pp2026-12-31
3096409Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in August?1%1%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3253021Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?12%12%+0.0pp2026-08-17
2850825Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?23%23%+0.0pp2026-08-31
3253023Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026?10%10%+0.0pp2026-08-19
3128886US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?94%94%+0.0pp2026-12-31
3253025Will Iran target a Arab country on August 21, 2026?10%10%+0.0pp2026-08-21
3096410Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?2%2%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3096411Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?4%4%+0.0pp2026-09-01
2926628Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 85%85%+0.0pp2026-08-31
3253031Will Iran target a Arab country on August 27, 2026?14%14%+0.0pp2026-08-27
2757753US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?4%4%+0.0pp2026-09-30
3253033Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026?15%15%+0.0pp2026-08-29
3096412Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?8%8%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3253035Will Iran target a Arab country on August 31, 2026?14%14%+0.0pp2026-08-31
3257429Will Solana reach $160 in August?0%0%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257431Will Solana reach $150 in August?0%0%+0.0pp2026-09-01
677366Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?93%93%+0.0pp2026-12-31
3275539Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?73%73%+0.0pp2026-09-30
3257449Will Solana dip to $50 in August?2%2%+0.0pp2026-09-01
2487205Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?33%33%+0.0pp2026-09-30
2159718Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?80%80%+0.0pp2026-09-30
3257450Will Solana dip to $40 in August?1%1%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257443Will Solana reach $90 in August?12%12%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3310013Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?40%40%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257453Will Solana dip to $10 in August?0%0%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257350Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?88%88%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257356Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?22%22%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3223005Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on Augus18%18%+0.0pp2026-08-31
3128887US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?82%82%+0.0pp2026-09-30
3257340Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August?3%3%+0.0pp2026-09-01
2155052US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?100%——2026-12-31✓
2413572US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?100%——2026-10-31✓
3257358Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?14%14%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257360Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in August?8%8%+0.0pp2026-09-01
3257362Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?5%5%+0.0pp2026-09-01
2355076US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?2%——2026-07-31
2074233Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?0%——2026-06-01✓
2074234Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?1%——2026-06-01✓
2074235Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?1%——2026-06-01✓
2074236Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?2%——2026-06-01✓
2074237Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?7%——2026-06-01✓
2074240Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?11%——2026-06-01✓
2074241Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?2%——2026-06-01✓
2074242Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?0%——2026-06-01✓
2074243Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?0%——2026-06-01✓
2074244Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?0%——2026-06-01✓
2074245Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May?0%——2026-06-01✓
2074246Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?0%——2026-06-01✓
2128304Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?0%——2026-06-01✓
2132637Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?31%——2026-06-01✓
2132638Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?4%——2026-06-01✓
2322404Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?100%——2026-06-01✓