The FutureSim paper evaluates the agent against ground truth (Brier), not against market price. Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar — these three gates have to clear before paper becomes real.
| Gate | Current | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward-resolved marketsCounted only when the agent predicted a market while it was OPEN and then watched it resolve. Hindsight forecasts on already-closed markets (the RESULTS-SINCE-LAST-SESSION history bundled into every run) don't count. | 131 | ≥ 50 | PASS ✓ |
| Net paper PnL (after taker fees)Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar than the paper's Brier-vs-truth evaluation. Fees use Polymarket's live per-category taker caps per 100 shares (geopolitics $0, politics/macro/AI $1.00, crypto $1.75) charged at entry — redemption at resolution is free. | $+176.17 over 26 closed | > $0 across ≥ 50 closed | NO |
| Calibration RMSEReported only once gate 1 passes — RMSE on fewer than 50 resolved predictions is noise. | 0.111 | < 0.10 | NO |
❌ DO NOT BET real money — gates not yet cleared.
Gates pool across models by design — they measure the system (harness + evidence + watchlist + model), so a model swap carries the evidence forward instead of resetting. Forward-resolved by agent: minimalHarness_gpt-55_001 (97), minimalHarness_gpt-56-sol_001 (34).
edges ≥ 5pp on markets with no fillable book — forecast and scored, but not traded
| Title | Agent | Market | Δ | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in August? | 88% | 51% | +37.0pp | 2026-09-01 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026? | 52% | 36% | +15.5pp | 2026-09-15 |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $5.50 on August 31, 2026? | 34% | 48% | -13.6pp | 2026-08-31 |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on August 31, 2026? | 16% | 4% | +12.1pp | 2026-08-31 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 30, 2026? | 73% | 84% | -10.5pp | 2026-08-30 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? | 33% | 24% | +8.5pp | 2026-08-30 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 35% | 44% | -8.5pp | 2026-09-16 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 20, 2026? | 86% | 94% | -8.0pp | 2026-08-20 |
| Will Solana dip to $70 in August? | 36% | 44% | -7.0pp | 2026-09-01 |
| Will Solana dip to $60 in August? | 12% | 4% | +7.0pp | 2026-09-01 |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 13, 2026? | 11% | 4% | +6.8pp | 2026-08-13 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | 45% | 38% | +6.5pp | 2026-08-31 |
No triggers today. Last tick blocked on: belief_stale 217, resolved 48, horizon_short 44, price_band 34, edge_small 20, moved_since_belief 11.
| Strategy | Realized | At risk (unrealized) | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold to resolution | $+195.75 | $-546.60 | 35 |
| Trade the move | $-78.50 | $+0.00 | 0 |
| qid | title | side | entry→exit | days | exit | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2658039 | GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? | NO | 0.40→0.84 | 1 | converged | +$45.00 |
3275538 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August | NO | 0.36→0.79 | 1 | converged | +$42.50 |
3399426 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 1 | YES | 0.56→0.20 | 1 | converged | $-36.00 |
2760614 | GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026? | NO | 0.54→0.89 | 1 | converged | +$35.00 |
3399427 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 1 | YES | 0.61→0.27 | 1 | converged | $-34.50 |
3096386 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in August? | YES | 0.64→1.00 | 1 | resolved | +$34.00 |
| qid | title | Agent | Market | Δ pp | Resolves | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3492744 | Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in August? | 88% | 51% | +37.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3379800 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026? | 52% | 36% | +15.5pp | 2026-09-15 | |
3223002 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $5.50 on August 31, 20 | 34% | 48% | -13.6pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3223005 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on Augus | 16% | 4% | +12.1pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3145217 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 30, 2026 | 73% | 84% | -10.5pp | 2026-08-30 | |
3275538 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? | 33% | 24% | +8.5pp | 2026-08-30 | |
2252245 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep | 35% | 44% | -8.5pp | 2026-09-16 | |
3223003 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on Augus | 15% | 23% | -8.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3145207 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 20, 2026 | 86% | 94% | -8.0pp | 2026-08-20 | |
3257447 | Will Solana dip to $70 in August? | 36% | 44% | -7.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257448 | Will Solana dip to $60 in August? | 12% | 4% | +7.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3253017 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 13, 2026? | 11% | 4% | +6.8pp | 2026-08-13 | |
2853652 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | 45% | 38% | +6.5pp | 2026-08-31 | |
2487205 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | 33% | 26% | +6.5pp | 2026-09-30 | |
2252244 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept | 62% | 56% | +6.1pp | 2026-09-16 | |
3257445 | Will Solana reach $80 in August? | 64% | 58% | +6.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3145208 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 21, 2026 | 84% | 90% | -6.0pp | 2026-08-21 | |
3145204 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 17, 2026 | 86% | 92% | -5.5pp | 2026-08-17 | |
3253029 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026? | 8% | 14% | -5.5pp | 2026-08-25 | |
3240664 | Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any d | 25% | 20% | +5.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
2937527 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | 90% | 94% | -5.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3145214 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 27, 2026 | 86% | 90% | -5.0pp | 2026-08-27 | |
3399468 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 43% | 48% | -5.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3145197 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 10, 2026 | 88% | 92% | -4.5pp | 2026-08-10 | |
3096382 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August? | 39% | 35% | +4.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2911832 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | 22% | 18% | +4.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
676829 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | 91% | 87% | +4.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2159718 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | 80% | 76% | +4.0pp | 2026-09-30 | |
3275539 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? | 84% | 80% | +3.8pp | 2026-09-30 | |
3145213 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 26, 2026 | 88% | 92% | -3.5pp | 2026-08-26 | |
3399458 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 64% | 68% | -3.5pp | 2026-09-30 | |
3145200 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 13, 2026 | 94% | 91% | +3.5pp | 2026-08-13 | |
2926628 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August | 54% | 50% | +3.1pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3096170 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in August? | 49% | 46% | +3.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3206142 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August | 6% | 10% | -3.0pp | 2026-08-14 | |
3223006 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $7.50 on Augus | 8% | 5% | +3.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3145215 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 28, 2026 | 88% | 91% | -3.0pp | 2026-08-28 | |
3145206 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 19, 2026 | 90% | 94% | -3.0pp | 2026-08-19 | |
3145212 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 25, 2026 | 90% | 94% | -3.0pp | 2026-08-25 | |
3145218 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 31, 2026 | 86% | 88% | -3.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
2952493 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 84% | 86% | -3.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3096180 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in August? | 4% | 2% | +3.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2006983 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | 10% | 8% | +2.5pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3240666 | Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any d | 12% | 9% | +2.5pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3145205 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 18, 2026 | 87% | 90% | -2.5pp | 2026-08-18 | |
3253032 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 28, 2026? | 8% | 10% | -2.5pp | 2026-08-28 | |
3257443 | Will Solana reach $90 in August? | 8% | 10% | -2.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3091050 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | 4% | 2% | +2.2pp | 2026-08-15 | |
2853384 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026? | 3% | 1% | +2.1pp | 2026-08-14 | |
3257405 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in August? | 6% | 3% | +2.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3145203 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 16, 2026 | 86% | 88% | -2.0pp | 2026-08-16 | |
3253020 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 16, 2026? | 9% | 7% | +2.0pp | 2026-08-16 | |
3253022 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026? | 10% | 8% | +2.0pp | 2026-08-18 | |
3253026 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 22, 2026? | 9% | 7% | +2.0pp | 2026-08-22 | |
3253030 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 26, 2026? | 8% | 6% | +2.0pp | 2026-08-26 | |
2006983 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | 10% | 8% | +2.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3096395 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in August? | 3% | 1% | +2.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257364 | Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August? | 3% | 1% | +1.8pp | 2026-09-01 | |
677366 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | 93% | 91% | +1.8pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3096179 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in August? | 5% | 3% | +1.6pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2925074 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? | 36% | 38% | -1.5pp | 2026-08-12 | |
2925075 | Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July? | 40% | 42% | -1.5pp | 2026-08-12 | |
3492743 | Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August? | 84% | 83% | +1.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096384 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in August? | 74% | 72% | +1.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3240665 | Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any d | 16% | 18% | -1.5pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3240667 | Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any d | 8% | 6% | +1.5pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3240692 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15? | 8% | 7% | +1.5pp | 2026-08-15 | |
3240669 | Will at least 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any | 3% | 2% | +1.5pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3253018 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 14, 2026? | 8% | 10% | -1.5pp | 2026-08-14 | |
2853462 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? | 7% | 5% | +1.5pp | 2026-08-21 | |
3223007 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.50 on August 31, 202 | 3% | 4% | -1.5pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3145216 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 29, 2026 | 87% | 88% | -1.5pp | 2026-08-29 | |
3253019 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 15, 2026? | 9% | 8% | +1.5pp | 2026-08-15 | |
3253035 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 31, 2026? | 9% | 10% | -1.5pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3257392 | Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in August? | 26% | 26% | +1.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257393 | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August? | 54% | 52% | +1.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3145199 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 12, 2026 | 89% | 90% | -1.0pp | 2026-08-12 | |
3206143 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August | 22% | 22% | +1.0pp | 2026-08-21 | |
2850825 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? | 23% | 22% | +1.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3253027 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 23, 2026? | 9% | 10% | -1.0pp | 2026-08-23 | |
3253031 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 27, 2026? | 9% | 8% | +1.0pp | 2026-08-27 | |
3399459 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 59% | 60% | -1.0pp | 2026-10-31 | |
2757753 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? | 4% | 4% | +0.9pp | 2026-09-30 | |
3257389 | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in August? | 4% | 3% | +0.9pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096181 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in August? | 2% | 1% | +0.8pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257437 | Will Solana reach $120 in August? | 2% | 1% | +0.8pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257407 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in August? | 3% | 2% | +0.8pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096394 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in August? | 3% | 2% | +0.8pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257342 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August? | 6% | 5% | +0.7pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257368 | Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.7pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257366 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in August? | 2% | 1% | +0.7pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3128585 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.7pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2925076 | Will annual inflation be 3.5% in July? | 13% | 14% | -0.5pp | 2026-08-12 | |
3399417 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026? | 3% | 2% | +0.5pp | 2026-08-12 | |
3096412 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? | 14% | 14% | +0.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3102462 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | 22% | 22% | +0.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3128887 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | 58% | 58% | +0.5pp | 2026-09-30 | |
3399427 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? | 8% | 7% | +0.5pp | 2026-08-14 | |
3399428 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | 18% | 19% | -0.5pp | 2026-08-22 | |
3096176 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in August? | 18% | 19% | -0.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096383 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in August? | 46% | 46% | +0.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3307942 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August? | 74% | 74% | -0.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3253016 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 12, 2026? | 9% | 10% | -0.5pp | 2026-08-12 | |
3145211 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 24, 2026 | 83% | 84% | -0.5pp | 2026-08-24 | |
3253028 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 24, 2026? | 8% | 8% | -0.5pp | 2026-08-24 | |
3253034 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 30, 2026? | 10% | 10% | +0.5pp | 2026-08-30 | |
3223004 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on Augus | 24% | 24% | -0.5pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3257401 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August? | 16% | 16% | -0.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096391 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in August? | 14% | 13% | +0.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3145202 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 15, 2026 | 89% | 90% | -0.5pp | 2026-08-15 | |
3145209 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 22, 2026 | 84% | 84% | -0.5pp | 2026-08-22 | |
3145210 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026 | 85% | 84% | +0.5pp | 2026-08-23 | |
3253025 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 21, 2026? | 8% | 8% | +0.5pp | 2026-08-21 | |
3253033 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026? | 9% | 8% | +0.5pp | 2026-08-29 | |
3275540 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026? | 89% | 88% | +0.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3257449 | Will Solana dip to $50 in August? | 2% | 2% | -0.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3247642 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | 52% | 52% | +0.5pp | 2026-09-30 | |
3379789 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? | 54% | 54% | +0.5pp | 2026-09-15 | |
3275537 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026? | 3% | 3% | +0.5pp | 2026-08-15 | |
3257382 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in August? | 1% | 0% | +0.4pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2252243 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep | 2% | 2% | +0.3pp | 2026-09-16 | |
2925080 | Will annual inflation be 3.9% in July? | 0% | 0% | -0.3pp | 2026-08-12 | |
3257336 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.3pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257409 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in August? | 2% | 1% | +0.3pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257388 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in August? | 2% | 2% | -0.3pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096409 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in August? | 1% | 1% | -0.3pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257340 | Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August? | 3% | 3% | +0.3pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2925079 | Will annual inflation be 3.8% in July? | 0% | 0% | -0.2pp | 2026-08-12 | |
3257435 | Will Solana reach $130 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.2pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257441 | Will Solana reach $100 in August? | 3% | 3% | +0.2pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3102466 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August? | 3% | 3% | -0.2pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096411 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? | 4% | 5% | -0.2pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2925072 | Will annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July? | 2% | 3% | -0.2pp | 2026-08-12 | |
2925073 | Will annual inflation be 3.2% in July? | 5% | 5% | -0.2pp | 2026-08-12 | |
3128886 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | 79% | 79% | -0.2pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3096166 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in August? | 14% | 14% | +0.2pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257451 | Will Solana dip to $30 in August? | 0% | 0% | -0.2pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257338 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August? | 2% | 1% | +0.2pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2925077 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in July? | 3% | 3% | -0.1pp | 2026-08-12 | |
3102464 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? | 8% | 7% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257386 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August? | 2% | 2% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257416 | Will Ethereum dip to $900 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096393 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in August? | 4% | 4% | -0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096407 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in August? | 0% | 1% | -0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2925081 | Will annual inflation be 4.0% in July? | 0% | 0% | -0.1pp | 2026-08-12 | |
3340541 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August? | 100% | 100% | -0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | ✓ |
3096385 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 in August? | 100% | 100% | -0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | ✓ |
3096178 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in August? | 4% | 3% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257332 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257413 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257370 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August? | 1% | 1% | -0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096392 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in August? | 6% | 6% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096417 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257429 | Will Solana reach $160 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257360 | Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in August? | 4% | 4% | -0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2252242 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se | 1% | 1% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-16 | |
2925078 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in July? | 0% | 0% | -0.1pp | 2026-08-12 | |
3399416 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026? | 1% | 1% | +0.1pp | 2026-08-11 | |
3096167 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in August? | 19% | 19% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3240668 | Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any d | 4% | 4% | -0.1pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3257452 | Will Solana dip to $20 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257411 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3203595 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31? | 1% | 1% | -0.1pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3096418 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096419 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in August? | 0% | 0% | -0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096420 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096408 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096410 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August? | 2% | 1% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2757753 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? | 4% | 4% | -0.1pp | 2026-09-30 | |
3257439 | Will Solana reach $110 in August? | 2% | 2% | -0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257362 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August? | 3% | 3% | -0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2925082 | Will annual inflation be 4.1% in July? | 0% | 0% | -0.0pp | 2026-08-12 | |
2925083 | Will annual inflation be 4.2% or more in July? | 0% | 0% | -0.0pp | 2026-08-12 | |
2252246 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se | 1% | 1% | -0.0pp | 2026-09-16 | |
3145198 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 11, 2026 | 90% | 90% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-11 | |
3253015 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 11, 2026? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-11 | |
2910437 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | 10% | 10% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-15 | |
3096416 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August? | 2% | 2% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2910438 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | 32% | 32% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3096415 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August? | 28% | 28% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096413 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? | 40% | 40% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3102467 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August? | 11% | 11% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3128888 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 66% | 66% | +0.0pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3310013 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? | 68% | 68% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3383654 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August? | 50% | 50% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3399426 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? | 4% | 4% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-13 | |
3096169 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in August? | 24% | 24% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2952488 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | 96% | 96% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-15 | |
2937526 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | 94% | 94% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-14 | |
3096390 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in August? | 12% | 12% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257344 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August? | 10% | 10% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257346 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? | 22% | 22% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257348 | Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August? | 44% | 44% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257355 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? | 38% | 38% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257356 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August? | 18% | 18% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257358 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? | 10% | 10% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257390 | Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in August? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257391 | Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in August? | 14% | 14% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257397 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in August? | 68% | 68% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257399 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August? | 36% | 36% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257403 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in August? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2355076 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? | 2% | — | — | 2026-07-31 | |
3253024 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 20, 2026? | 9% | 9% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-20 | |
3257433 | Will Solana reach $140 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096177 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in August? | 9% | 9% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257384 | Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3145201 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 14, 2026 | 90% | 90% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-14 | |
3257334 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3253021 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? | 10% | 10% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-17 | |
3253023 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026? | 9% | 9% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-19 | |
3257431 | Will Solana reach $150 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2487206 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? | 74% | 74% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-30 | |
3257450 | Will Solana dip to $40 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257453 | Will Solana dip to $10 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3253012 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 8, 2026? | 1% | — | — | 2026-08-08 | ✓ |
3145196 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 9, 2026? | 82% | — | — | 2026-08-09 | ✓ |
3253014 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 10, 2026? | 6% | — | — | 2026-08-10 | ✓ |
3399415 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? | 3% | — | — | 2026-08-10 | ✓ |
3402349 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in August? | 99% | — | — | 2026-09-01 | ✓ |