The FutureSim paper evaluates the agent against ground truth (Brier), not against market price. Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar — these three gates have to clear before paper becomes real.
| Gate | Current | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward-resolved marketsCounted only when the agent predicted a market while it was OPEN and then watched it resolve. Hindsight forecasts on already-closed markets (the RESULTS-SINCE-LAST-SESSION history bundled into every run) don't count. | 156 | ≥ 50 | PASS ✓ |
| Net paper PnL (after taker fees)Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar than the paper's Brier-vs-truth evaluation. Fees use Polymarket's live per-category taker caps per 100 shares (geopolitics $0, politics/macro/AI $1.00, crypto $1.75) charged at entry — redemption at resolution is free. | $+110.17 over 31 closed | > $0 across ≥ 50 closed | NO |
| Calibration RMSEReported only once gate 1 passes — RMSE on fewer than 50 resolved predictions is noise. | 0.101 | < 0.10 | NO |
❌ DO NOT BET real money — gates not yet cleared.
Gates pool across models by design — they measure the system (harness + evidence + watchlist + model), so a model swap carries the evidence forward instead of resetting. Forward-resolved by agent: minimalHarness_gpt-55_001 (97), minimalHarness_gpt-56-sol_001 (59).
edges ≥ 5pp on markets with no fillable book — forecast and scored, but not traded
| Title | Agent | Market | Δ | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August? | 31% | 36% | -5.6pp | 2026-09-11 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | 33% | 39% | -5.6pp | 2026-09-11 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in August? | 64% | 68% | -5.0pp | 2026-09-01 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026? | 52% | 47% | +5.0pp | 2026-09-15 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 66% | 70% | -4.7pp | 2026-09-16 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 32% | 28% | +4.7pp | 2026-09-16 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August? | 18% | 22% | -4.5pp | 2026-09-01 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in August? | 9% | 4% | +4.5pp | 2026-09-01 |
| Will Solana reach $80 in August? | 50% | 55% | -4.5pp | 2026-09-01 |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026? | 9% | 4% | +4.5pp | 2026-08-19 |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 23, 2026? | 9% | 4% | +4.5pp | 2026-08-23 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in August? | 14% | 10% | +4.0pp | 2026-09-01 |
No triggers today. Last tick blocked on: belief_stale 249, resolved 73, edge_small 21, horizon_short 19, price_band 13, moved_since_belief 5.
| Strategy | Realized | At risk (unrealized) | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold to resolution | $+129.75 | $-489.60 | 32 |
| Trade the move | $-79.00 | $+0.00 | 2 |
| qid | title | side | entry→exit | days | exit | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2658039 | GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? | NO | 0.40→0.84 | 1 | converged | +$45.00 |
3275538 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August | NO | 0.36→0.79 | 1 | converged | +$42.50 |
3399426 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 1 | YES | 0.56→0.20 | 1 | converged | $-36.00 |
2760614 | GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026? | NO | 0.54→0.89 | 1 | converged | +$35.00 |
3399427 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 1 | YES | 0.61→0.27 | 1 | converged | $-34.50 |
3096386 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in August? | YES | 0.64→1.00 | 1 | resolved | +$34.00 |
| qid | title | Agent | Market | Δ pp | Resolves | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3539674 | Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August? | 31% | 36% | -5.6pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3539673 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | 33% | 39% | -5.6pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3096170 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in August? | 64% | 68% | -5.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3379800 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026? | 52% | 47% | +5.0pp | 2026-09-15 | |
2252244 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept | 66% | 70% | -4.7pp | 2026-09-16 | |
2252245 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep | 32% | 28% | +4.7pp | 2026-09-16 | |
3096382 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in August? | 18% | 22% | -4.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096177 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in August? | 9% | 4% | +4.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257445 | Will Solana reach $80 in August? | 50% | 55% | -4.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3253023 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026? | 9% | 4% | +4.5pp | 2026-08-19 | |
3253027 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 23, 2026? | 9% | 4% | +4.5pp | 2026-08-23 | |
3257391 | Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in August? | 14% | 10% | +4.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096167 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in August? | 26% | 22% | +4.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257399 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August? | 30% | 26% | +4.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3253019 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 15, 2026? | 9% | 5% | +4.0pp | 2026-08-15 | |
3253021 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? | 10% | 6% | +4.0pp | 2026-08-17 | |
2159718 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | 74% | 70% | +4.0pp | 2026-09-30 | |
3102464 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? | 8% | 4% | +3.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
1366008 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 36% | 39% | -3.5pp | 2026-10-04 | |
3539696 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August? | 36% | 39% | -3.2pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3529064 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on Octob | 33% | 30% | +3.1pp | 2026-10-31 | |
1366009 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 27% | 30% | -3.0pp | 2026-10-04 | |
2853652 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | 34% | 32% | +3.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3257344 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August? | 10% | 6% | +3.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096390 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in August? | 12% | 16% | -3.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3253026 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 22, 2026? | 9% | 6% | +3.0pp | 2026-08-22 | |
3257392 | Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in August? | 26% | 24% | +3.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257393 | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August? | 54% | 50% | +3.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257358 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? | 10% | 6% | +3.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257342 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August? | 6% | 3% | +2.9pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3529065 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on Octob | 30% | 28% | +2.9pp | 2026-10-31 | |
677366 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | 93% | 90% | +2.8pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3539695 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in August? | 29% | 32% | -2.6pp | 2026-09-11 | |
2006983 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | 10% | 8% | +2.5pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3253022 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026? | 10% | 8% | +2.5pp | 2026-08-18 | |
3253028 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 24, 2026? | 8% | 6% | +2.5pp | 2026-08-24 | |
3253030 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 26, 2026? | 8% | 6% | +2.5pp | 2026-08-26 | |
3253034 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 30, 2026? | 10% | 8% | +2.5pp | 2026-08-30 | |
3096391 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in August? | 14% | 11% | +2.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3253029 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026? | 8% | 6% | +2.5pp | 2026-08-25 | |
3253033 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 29, 2026? | 9% | 6% | +2.5pp | 2026-08-29 | |
3257356 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August? | 18% | 15% | +2.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3399459 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 70% | 73% | -2.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3096179 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in August? | 5% | 3% | +2.4pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2128397 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 34% | 36% | -2.4pp | 2026-11-07 | |
3257390 | Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in August? | 6% | 4% | +2.4pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096395 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in August? | 3% | 1% | +2.4pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096392 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in August? | 6% | 4% | +2.4pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2757753 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? | 4% | 2% | +2.2pp | 2026-09-30 | |
3257405 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in August? | 6% | 3% | +2.2pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257407 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in August? | 3% | 1% | +2.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2128408 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 30% | 32% | -2.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
3529063 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on Octob | 17% | 14% | +2.1pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3223003 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on Augus | 46% | 44% | +2.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3096383 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in August? | 36% | 34% | +2.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2910438 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | 26% | 28% | -2.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3096180 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in August? | 4% | 2% | +2.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257348 | Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August? | 36% | 34% | +2.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2006983 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | 10% | 8% | +2.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3383654 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August? | 50% | 52% | -2.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096411 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? | 4% | 2% | +1.9pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3539675 | Will annual inflation be 3.5% in August? | 13% | 15% | -1.9pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3096181 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in August? | 2% | 0% | +1.9pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257364 | Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August? | 3% | 1% | +1.9pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257389 | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in August? | 4% | 2% | +1.8pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2128400 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 24% | 26% | -1.7pp | 2026-11-07 | |
3539697 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in August? | 19% | 20% | -1.7pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3257340 | Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August? | 3% | 1% | +1.7pp | 2026-09-01 | |
1321653 | SHEIN IPO before 2027? | 97% | 99% | -1.6pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3275538 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? | 15% | 16% | -1.5pp | 2026-08-30 | |
3096176 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in August? | 12% | 10% | +1.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3253032 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 28, 2026? | 8% | 6% | +1.5pp | 2026-08-28 | |
3253025 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 21, 2026? | 8% | 6% | +1.5pp | 2026-08-21 | |
3253031 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 27, 2026? | 9% | 8% | +1.5pp | 2026-08-27 | |
2487206 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? | 74% | 72% | +1.5pp | 2026-09-30 | |
3096169 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in August? | 39% | 40% | -1.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3492743 | Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August? | 70% | 72% | -1.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2412746 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at m | 19% | 20% | -1.5pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2412747 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at m | 17% | 18% | -1.4pp | 2026-12-31 | |
1366007 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 14% | 15% | -1.3pp | 2026-10-04 | |
3257362 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August? | 3% | 2% | +1.3pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096178 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in August? | 4% | 2% | +1.2pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257448 | Will Solana dip to $60 in August? | 5% | 4% | +1.2pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3102466 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August? | 3% | 1% | +1.2pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2757753 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? | 4% | 2% | +1.2pp | 2026-09-30 | |
2412745 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at m | 14% | 16% | -1.1pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3257441 | Will Solana reach $100 in August? | 3% | 2% | +1.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096394 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in August? | 3% | 2% | +1.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2412749 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at m | 13% | 14% | -1.1pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2412748 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at m | 13% | 14% | -1.1pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3223004 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on Augus | 24% | 22% | +1.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3515354 | Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 24% | 26% | -1.0pp | 2026-11-03 | |
3529066 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 20 | 10% | 10% | +1.0pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3096384 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in August? | 62% | 64% | -1.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3240665 | Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any d | 10% | 10% | +1.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3253020 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 16, 2026? | 9% | 8% | +1.0pp | 2026-08-16 | |
3257447 | Will Solana dip to $70 in August? | 36% | 36% | +1.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257368 | Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in August? | 1% | 0% | +1.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257403 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in August? | 8% | 6% | +1.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
676829 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | 84% | 84% | +1.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3257439 | Will Solana reach $110 in August? | 2% | 1% | +1.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2487205 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | 22% | 24% | -1.0pp | 2026-09-30 | |
3257443 | Will Solana reach $90 in August? | 8% | 7% | +1.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257346 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? | 14% | 14% | +1.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3399458 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 78% | 78% | -1.0pp | 2026-09-30 | |
2307825 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | 7% | 6% | +0.9pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539676 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August? | 5% | 6% | -0.9pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3539698 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in August? | 5% | 6% | -0.9pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3096166 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in August? | 14% | 15% | -0.9pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257451 | Will Solana dip to $30 in August? | 0% | 1% | -0.8pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257338 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August? | 2% | 1% | +0.8pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257386 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August? | 2% | 1% | +0.8pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257437 | Will Solana reach $120 in August? | 2% | 1% | +0.8pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257388 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in August? | 2% | 1% | +0.8pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257366 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in August? | 2% | 1% | +0.8pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3128585 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.8pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257370 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August? | 1% | 0% | +0.7pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257409 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in August? | 2% | 1% | +0.7pp | 2026-09-01 | |
1366010 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 7% | 8% | -0.7pp | 2026-10-04 | |
3257336 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August? | 1% | 0% | +0.7pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2412750 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at m | 8% | 8% | -0.6pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3539672 | Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August? | 3% | 4% | -0.6pp | 2026-09-11 | |
1366011 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil | 6% | 7% | -0.6pp | 2026-10-04 | |
3257384 | Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.6pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3515356 | Will Democrats win 7 or more House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 29% | 30% | -0.6pp | 2026-11-03 | |
2412752 | Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market cl | 7% | 8% | -0.6pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3539678 | Will annual inflation be 3.8% in August? | 3% | 4% | -0.5pp | 2026-09-11 | |
676780 | Cerebras IPO before 2027? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2026-12-31 | ✓ |
676794 | xAI IPO before 2027? | 0% | 0% | +0.5pp | 2026-12-31 | ✓ |
676795 | SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 202 | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2026-12-31 | ✓ |
676800 | Wealthfront IPO before 2027? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2026-12-31 | ✓ |
676801 | Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2026-12-31 | ✓ |
701497 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701498 | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701499 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701500 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701550 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701551 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701728 | Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701729 | Will Hyperliquid reach $66 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701730 | Will Hyperliquid reach $62 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701731 | Will Hyperliquid reach $58 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701732 | Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701733 | Will Hyperliquid reach $50 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701734 | Will Hyperliquid reach $46 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701735 | Will Hyperliquid reach $42 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701736 | Will Hyperliquid reach $38 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701737 | Will Hyperliquid reach $34 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701738 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701739 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
701740 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
1339746 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
1339767 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | 36% | 36% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1345526 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
1345529 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
1345530 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
2299952 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | 26% | 26% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299953 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | 40% | 39% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299958 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
2299959 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
2463847 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
2467211 | Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
2467361 | Will Ethereum reach $1,750 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
2468320 | Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
2468321 | Will Hyperliquid reach $65 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
2468322 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $55 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
2730613 | Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
2730628 | Will Ethereum reach $1,750 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
2730667 | Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | ✓ |
3387867 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026? | 76% | 76% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3399428 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | 14% | 14% | -0.5pp | 2026-08-22 | |
3128888 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 67% | 68% | -0.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3257401 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August? | 11% | 10% | +0.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3492744 | Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in August? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2026-09-01 | ✓ |
3542316 | Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in August? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2026-09-01 | ✓ |
3253024 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 20, 2026? | 9% | 8% | +0.5pp | 2026-08-20 | |
3257435 | Will Solana reach $130 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3307942 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August? | 80% | 80% | -0.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2850825 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? | 13% | 14% | -0.5pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3253035 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 31, 2026? | 9% | 8% | +0.5pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3275540 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026? | 89% | 88% | +0.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
562828 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 49% | 50% | -0.5pp | 2026-11-03 | |
2128413 | Will another result occur for the next governing coalition o | 4% | 5% | -0.5pp | 2026-11-07 | |
3515355 | Will Democrats win exactly 6 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 24% | 24% | -0.5pp | 2026-11-03 | |
3529061 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on October 31, 2 | 5% | 4% | +0.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3529062 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.25 on Octob | 5% | 4% | +0.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3539677 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in August? | 2% | 3% | -0.5pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3096393 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in August? | 4% | 4% | +0.5pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3377659 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August? | 32% | 32% | -0.4pp | 2026-09-03 | |
3223002 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $5.50 on August 31, 20 | 22% | 22% | +0.4pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3539669 | Will annual inflation be 2.9% or less in August? | 2% | 3% | -0.4pp | 2026-09-11 | |
2412744 | Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market cl | 5% | 6% | -0.4pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3377658 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August? | 28% | 28% | -0.4pp | 2026-09-03 | |
1366012 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil | 4% | 4% | -0.4pp | 2026-10-04 | |
3539671 | Will annual inflation be 3.1% in August? | 2% | 2% | -0.4pp | 2026-09-11 | |
562830 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 37% | 38% | -0.4pp | 2026-11-03 | |
3515353 | Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 18% | 18% | -0.4pp | 2026-11-03 | |
3539670 | Will annual inflation be 3.0% in August? | 2% | 2% | -0.4pp | 2026-09-11 | |
676777 | Discord IPO before 2027? | 28% | 27% | +0.3pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3539694 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.2% in August? | 3% | 4% | -0.3pp | 2026-09-11 | |
2252243 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep | 1% | 1% | -0.3pp | 2026-09-16 | |
1366013 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil | 4% | 4% | -0.3pp | 2026-10-04 | |
2307824 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | 8% | 8% | +0.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539679 | Will annual inflation be 3.9% in August? | 2% | 2% | -0.3pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3257433 | Will Solana reach $140 in August? | 1% | 0% | +0.3pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257334 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | 1% | 0% | +0.3pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096410 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August? | 2% | 1% | +0.3pp | 2026-09-01 | |
701544 | Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | +0.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2412751 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at m | 2% | 2% | -0.3pp | 2026-12-31 | |
701543 | Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 3% | -0.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539699 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in August? | 3% | 3% | -0.2pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3377660 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in August? | 17% | 17% | -0.2pp | 2026-09-03 | |
3539700 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in August? | 2% | 3% | -0.2pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3377657 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in August? | 15% | 16% | -0.2pp | 2026-09-03 | |
3539701 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% or more in August? | 2% | 2% | -0.2pp | 2026-09-11 | |
701545 | Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 4% | -0.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701546 | Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 3% | +0.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2853462 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? | 2% | 2% | +0.2pp | 2026-08-21 | |
3096417 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.2pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3223007 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.50 on August 31, 202 | 4% | 4% | +0.2pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3091050 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | 1% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-08-15 | |
2128402 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2128404 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2128409 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
3515350 | Will Democrats win fewer than 2 House seats in Ohio in the 2 | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-03 | |
3223005 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on Augus | 3% | 3% | +0.1pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3257382 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in August? | 1% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257416 | Will Ethereum dip to $900 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257360 | Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in August? | 4% | 4% | -0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
562831 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 12% | 12% | -0.1pp | 2026-11-03 | |
1366017 | Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilia | 1% | 1% | -0.1pp | 2026-10-04 | |
2128401 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 2% | 2% | -0.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
701487 | Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | -0.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701488 | Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | +0.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3257332 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257413 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in August? | 0% | 0% | -0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257411 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3203595 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31? | 1% | 1% | +0.1pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3257429 | Will Solana reach $160 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
1366014 | Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian | 1% | 1% | -0.1pp | 2026-10-04 | |
3515352 | Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 4% | 4% | -0.1pp | 2026-11-03 | |
3539680 | Will annual inflation be 4.0% or more in August? | 1% | 1% | -0.1pp | 2026-09-11 | |
2252242 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se | 1% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-16 | |
2128403 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 1% | 1% | -0.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2128406 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 1% | 1% | -0.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2412753 | Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? | 1% | 1% | -0.1pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2910437 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | 2% | 2% | +0.1pp | 2026-08-15 | |
3275537 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026? | 2% | 2% | -0.1pp | 2026-08-15 | |
562832 | 2026 Balance of Power: Other | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-03 | |
2128396 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2128398 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 1% | 1% | -0.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2128405 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2128411 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
3539692 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.0% or less in August? | 1% | 1% | -0.1pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3399427 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026? | 1% | 1% | -0.1pp | 2026-08-14 | |
2853384 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026? | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-08-14 | |
3240669 | Will at least 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any | 1% | 1% | +0.1pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3096416 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August? | 2% | 2% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096418 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096419 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096420 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2952488 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | 99% | 99% | +0.1pp | 2026-08-15 | |
3096408 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257431 | Will Solana reach $150 in August? | 0% | 0% | -0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257450 | Will Solana dip to $40 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2128410 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 1% | 1% | -0.0pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2128412 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 1% | 1% | -0.0pp | 2026-11-07 | |
3539693 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.1% in August? | 0% | 0% | -0.0pp | 2026-09-11 | |
1366015 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Bra | 0% | 0% | -0.0pp | 2026-10-04 | |
1366016 | Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the | 0% | 0% | -0.0pp | 2026-10-04 | |
2128399 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 0% | 0% | -0.0pp | 2026-11-07 | |
3377661 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in August? | 2% | 2% | -0.0pp | 2026-09-03 | |
3377662 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in August? | 2% | 2% | -0.0pp | 2026-09-03 | |
2128407 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 0% | 0% | -0.0pp | 2026-11-07 | |
3377656 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in August? | 1% | 1% | -0.0pp | 2026-09-03 | |
3377663 | Will ISM Services PMI be at least 58.0 in August? | 1% | 1% | -0.0pp | 2026-09-03 | |
562829 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | 1% | 1% | -0.0pp | 2026-11-03 | |
701541 | Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | -0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701542 | Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | -0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3377654 | Will ISM Services PMI be below 50.0 in August? | 1% | 1% | -0.0pp | 2026-09-03 | |
3377655 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 50.0 and 50.9 in August? | 1% | 1% | -0.0pp | 2026-09-03 | |
3515351 | Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 0% | 0% | -0.0pp | 2026-11-03 | |
3223006 | Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $7.50 on Augus | 0% | 0% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3240692 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15? | 5% | 5% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-15 | |
676778 | Stripe IPO before 2027? | 2% | 2% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676779 | Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676787 | Rippling IPO before 2027? | 14% | 14% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676781 | Ramp IPO before 2027? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676782 | Celonis IPO before 2027? | 10% | 10% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676783 | Vanta IPO before 2027? | 10% | 10% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676786 | Brex IPO before 2027? | 1% | 1% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676785 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | 16% | 16% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676784 | Anduril IPO before 2027? | 7% | 7% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676788 | Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? | 1% | 1% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676789 | Remote IPO before 2027? | 12% | 12% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676790 | Mistral AI IPO before 2027? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676791 | Deel IPO before 2027? | 4% | 4% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676792 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | 80% | 80% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676793 | Glean IPO before 2027? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676796 | Databricks IPO before 2027? | 9% | 9% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676797 | Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? | 12% | 12% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676798 | Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? | 7% | 7% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676799 | Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
701486 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701489 | Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701490 | Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 3% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701491 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 3% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701492 | Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 4% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701493 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 4% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701494 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701495 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701496 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701501 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | 55% | 55% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701502 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 24% | 24% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701503 | Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701504 | Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 3% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701539 | Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1% | 1% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701540 | Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701547 | Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 4% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701548 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701549 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | 10% | 10% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701552 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | 42% | 42% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701553 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | 9% | 9% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701554 | Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701726 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | 16% | 16% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701727 | Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? | 32% | 32% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701741 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701742 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 4% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701743 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 3% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701744 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 3% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1057883 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1057916 | Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1321654 | ByteDance IPO before 2027? | 12% | 12% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
1321740 | Waymo IPO before 2027? | 3% | 3% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
1321771 | Revolut IPO before 2027? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
1321865 | Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
1321866 | Canva IPO before 2027? | 4% | 4% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
1321867 | Epic Games IPO before 2027? | 9% | 9% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
1321868 | Ledger IPO before 2027? | 10% | 10% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
1339768 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | 14% | 14% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1339769 | Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1343219 | Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 3% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1343220 | Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1343228 | Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1345531 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | 16% | 16% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1808754 | WHOOP IPO before 2027? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
1393068 | Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1% | 1% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1393070 | Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1% | 1% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109512 | Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 20% | 20% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2109513 | Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 34% | 34% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2109514 | Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 12% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2109515 | Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 13% | 13% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2109516 | Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2109517 | Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2109518 | Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 10% | 10% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2109519 | Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2109520 | Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2109521 | Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 4% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2109522 | Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2109523 | Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2109524 | Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 12% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2109525 | Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2299954 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | 58% | 58% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299955 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | 66% | 66% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299956 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | 84% | 84% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299957 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | 96% | 96% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299960 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299961 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299962 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? | 2% | 2% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467206 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? | 10% | 10% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467207 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? | 20% | 20% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467208 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? | 30% | 30% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467209 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | 50% | 50% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467210 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | 68% | 68% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467356 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026? | 18% | 18% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467357 | Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026? | 22% | 22% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467358 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 by December 31, 2026? | 38% | 38% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467359 | Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026? | 56% | 56% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467360 | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026? | 83% | 83% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467362 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? | 18% | 18% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468319 | Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026? | 20% | 20% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468323 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? | 73% | 73% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468324 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? | 36% | 36% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468325 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 by December 31, 2026? | 16% | 16% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468459 | Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 4% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468460 | Will Ethereum dip to $600 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 4% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468461 | Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 3% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3013350 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | 78% | 78% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3387846 | Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? | 48% | 48% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3565575 | Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in August? | 94% | 94% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3253018 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 14, 2026? | 9% | 9% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-14 | |
3310013 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? | 60% | 60% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096413 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? | 28% | 28% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3102462 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | 14% | 14% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096412 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3096415 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August? | 20% | 20% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3102467 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3240664 | Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any d | 19% | 19% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3240666 | Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any d | 7% | 7% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3240667 | Will at least 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any d | 5% | 5% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3240668 | Will at least 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any d | 3% | 3% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3128887 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | 54% | 54% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-30 | |
3128886 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | 82% | 82% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2911832 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | 12% | 12% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3247642 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | 38% | 38% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-30 | |
3379789 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? | 40% | 40% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-15 | |
3275539 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? | 80% | 80% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-30 | |
3257397 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in August? | 59% | 59% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3399468 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 60% | 60% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2937527 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | 100% | — | — | 2026-08-31 | ✓ |
2355076 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? | 2% | — | — | 2026-07-31 | |
3257452 | Will Solana dip to $20 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2252246 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se | 0% | 0% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-16 | |
3096407 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
2952493 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 92% | 92% | +0.0pp | 2026-08-31 | |
3096409 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in August? | 1% | 1% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257449 | Will Solana dip to $50 in August? | 2% | 2% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257453 | Will Solana dip to $10 in August? | 0% | 0% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3257355 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? | 38% | 38% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-01 | |
3253017 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 13, 2026? | 4% | — | — | 2026-08-13 | ✓ |
3253015 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 11, 2026? | 6% | — | — | 2026-08-11 | ✓ |
3399426 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026? | 1% | — | — | 2026-08-13 | ✓ |