The FutureSim paper evaluates the agent against ground truth (Brier), not against market price. Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar — these three gates have to clear before paper becomes real.
| Gate | Current | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward-resolved marketsCounted only when the agent predicted a market while it was OPEN and then watched it resolve. Hindsight forecasts on already-closed markets (the RESULTS-SINCE-LAST-SESSION history bundled into every run) don't count. | 390 | ≥ 50 | PASS ✓ |
| Net paper PnL (after taker fees)Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar than the paper's Brier-vs-truth evaluation. Fees use Polymarket's live per-category taker caps per 100 shares (geopolitics $0, politics/macro/AI $1.00, crypto $1.75) charged at entry — redemption at resolution is free. | $-391.42 over 68 closed | > $0 across ≥ 50 closed | NO |
| Calibration RMSEReported only once gate 1 passes — RMSE on fewer than 50 resolved predictions is noise. | 0.073 | < 0.10 | PASS ✓ |
❌ DO NOT BET real money — gates not yet cleared.
Gates pool across models by design — they measure the system (harness + evidence + watchlist + model), so a model swap carries the evidence forward instead of resetting. Forward-resolved by agent: minimalHarness_gpt-56-sol_001 (293), minimalHarness_gpt-56-sol_002 (104), minimalHarness_gpt-55_001 (97).
every fresh edge today had a fillable book
| Title | Agent | Market | Δ | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $65 by December 31, 2026? | 42% | 60% | -18.0pp | 2027-01-01 |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? | 39% | 21% | +18.0pp | 2027-01-01 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026? | 31% | 15% | +16.0pp | 2026-10-31 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | 36% | 20% | +15.5pp | 2027-01-01 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian preside | 23% | 7% | +15.3pp | 2026-10-04 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026? | 23% | 38% | -14.5pp | 2026-10-31 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | 15% | 1% | +14.4pp | 2026-09-08 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | 48% | 34% | +13.5pp | 2027-01-01 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian preside | 20% | 7% | +13.0pp | 2026-10-04 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO d | 14% | 2% | +12.8pp | 2026-12-31 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | 12% | 1% | +11.9pp | 2026-09-08 |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | 18% | 8% | +9.0pp | 2027-01-01 |
No triggers today. Last tick blocked on: belief_stale 367, resolved 267, edge_small 26, price_band 8, risk 8, horizon_short 6.
| Strategy | Realized | At risk (unrealized) | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold to resolution | $-352.45 | $-253.35 | 10 |
| Trade the move | $-371.35 | $-5.00 | 8 |
| qid | title | side | entry→exit | days | exit | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3933484 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 in August? | YES | 0.63→0.00 | 1 | resolved | $-63.00 |
3847190 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in August? | YES | 0.37→1.00 | 1 | resolved | +$61.00 |
3584199 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026? | NO | 0.64→0.12 | 2 | stopped | $-52.00 |
3584199 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026? | NO | 0.59→0.12 | 3 | stopped | $-47.00 |
3257386 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August? | NO | 0.43→0.90 | 1 | converged | +$46.75 |
2658039 | GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? | NO | 0.40→0.84 | 1 | converged | +$45.00 |
| qid | title | Agent | Market | Δ pp | Resolves | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3866013 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $65 by December 31, 2026? | 42% | 60% | -18.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866009 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? | 39% | 21% | +18.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3529065 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on Octob | 31% | 15% | +16.0pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3013350 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | 36% | 20% | +15.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366009 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 23% | 7% | +15.3pp | 2026-10-04 | |
3529066 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 20 | 23% | 38% | -14.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3866008 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026? | 50% | 64% | -14.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3702025 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | 15% | 1% | +14.4pp | 2026-09-08 | |
3865962 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | 48% | 34% | +13.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366009 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 20% | 7% | +13.0pp | 2026-10-04 | |
3866009 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? | 34% | 21% | +13.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2412745 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at m | 14% | 2% | +12.8pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3702025 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | 12% | 1% | +11.9pp | 2026-09-08 | |
3866011 | Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026? | 50% | 38% | +11.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866011 | Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026? | 50% | 38% | +11.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3529065 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on Octob | 25% | 15% | +10.0pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3866013 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $65 by December 31, 2026? | 50% | 60% | -10.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3702042 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | 12% | 3% | +9.6pp | 2026-09-15 | |
701501 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | 28% | 18% | +9.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676785 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | 18% | 8% | +9.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3865960 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | 63% | 54% | +9.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2252244 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept | 41% | 50% | -8.6pp | 2026-09-16 | |
3247642 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | 16% | 8% | +8.5pp | 2026-09-30 | |
1339767 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | 22% | 14% | +8.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3702045 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | 16% | 8% | +8.5pp | 2026-09-22 | |
3866008 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026? | 56% | 64% | -8.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2252245 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep | 58% | 50% | +8.4pp | 2026-09-16 | |
3702042 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | 11% | 3% | +8.1pp | 2026-09-15 | |
676785 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | 16% | 8% | +8.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3128886 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | 67% | 59% | +7.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366007 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 36% | 44% | -7.5pp | 2026-10-04 | |
1321654 | ByteDance IPO before 2027? | 12% | 4% | +7.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299956 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | 88% | 95% | -7.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866007 | Will Hyperliquid reach $140 by December 31, 2026? | 25% | 18% | +7.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3128887 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | 24% | 18% | +6.5pp | 2026-10-01 | |
676792 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | 86% | 93% | -6.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3670499 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? | 64% | 57% | +6.5pp | 2027-03-31 | |
3515355 | Will Democrats win exactly 6 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 51% | 44% | +6.5pp | 2026-11-03 | |
676799 | Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? | 8% | 1% | +6.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3702045 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | 14% | 8% | +6.0pp | 2026-09-22 | |
3865960 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | 48% | 54% | -6.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3865961 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | 84% | 78% | +6.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866006 | Will Hyperliquid reach $150 by December 31, 2026? | 19% | 13% | +6.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3128888 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 42% | 36% | +5.5pp | 2026-11-01 | |
3399468 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 67% | 62% | +5.5pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2468324 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? | 16% | 10% | +5.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128413 | Will another result occur for the next governing coalition o | 4% | 9% | -5.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
676792 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | 88% | 93% | -5.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539672 | Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August? | 3% | 8% | -4.7pp | 2026-09-11 | |
2412744 | Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market cl | 5% | 1% | +4.5pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2006983 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | 10% | 6% | +4.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1321867 | Epic Games IPO before 2027? | 9% | 4% | +4.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128408 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 44% | 40% | +4.5pp | 2026-11-07 | |
701496 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | 30% | 26% | +4.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109520 | Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 15% | 10% | +4.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701554 | Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 3% | +4.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109519 | Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 3% | +4.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2006983 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | 10% | 6% | +4.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676787 | Rippling IPO before 2027? | 14% | 10% | +4.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676782 | Celonis IPO before 2027? | 10% | 6% | +4.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468325 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 4% | +4.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701548 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | 20% | 16% | +4.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2412749 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at m | 22% | 18% | +4.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2128400 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 18% | 14% | +4.0pp | 2026-11-07 | |
701494 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | 14% | 10% | +4.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866006 | Will Hyperliquid reach $150 by December 31, 2026? | 17% | 13% | +4.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866010 | Will Hyperliquid reach $130 by December 31, 2026? | 32% | 28% | +4.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3902370 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 70% | 66% | +4.0pp | 2026-11-30 | |
3539694 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.2% in August? | 3% | 7% | -4.0pp | 2026-09-11 | |
2412746 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at m | 14% | 10% | +3.8pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2757753 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? | 4% | 1% | +3.7pp | 2026-10-01 | |
3539676 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August? | 5% | 2% | +3.6pp | 2026-09-11 | |
701553 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | 9% | 6% | +3.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366008 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 40% | 36% | +3.5pp | 2026-10-04 | |
3539673 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | 27% | 30% | -3.5pp | 2026-09-11 | |
701549 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | 30% | 26% | +3.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866012 | Will Hyperliquid reach $120 by December 31, 2026? | 40% | 36% | +3.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866012 | Will Hyperliquid reach $120 by December 31, 2026? | 40% | 36% | +3.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
4117193 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | 21% | 18% | +3.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3539672 | Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August? | 12% | 8% | +3.4pp | 2026-09-11 | |
1366012 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil | 6% | 2% | +3.3pp | 2026-10-04 | |
676783 | Vanta IPO before 2027? | 10% | 6% | +3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701502 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 10% | 8% | +3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701503 | Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 4% | +3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1321865 | Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? | 8% | 6% | +3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109525 | Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 4% | +3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467357 | Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026? | 66% | 68% | -3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2510767 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 44% | 42% | +3.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3399458 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 88% | 84% | +3.0pp | 2026-09-30 | |
562830 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 38% | 36% | +3.0pp | 2026-11-03 | |
3128887 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | 20% | 18% | +3.0pp | 2026-10-01 | |
2128408 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 42% | 40% | +3.0pp | 2026-11-07 | |
3670499 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? | 60% | 57% | +3.0pp | 2027-03-31 | |
2467357 | Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026? | 66% | 68% | -3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701501 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | 22% | 18% | +3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299952 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | 28% | 26% | +3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866007 | Will Hyperliquid reach $140 by December 31, 2026? | 21% | 18% | +3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701502 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 10% | 8% | +3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
4117193 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | 20% | 18% | +3.0pp | 2026-10-31 | |
2128397 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 19% | 22% | -3.0pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2412751 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at m | 8% | 5% | +2.9pp | 2026-12-31 | |
701493 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 7% | -2.9pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701552 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | 15% | 12% | +2.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2412746 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at m | 13% | 10% | +2.8pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3515355 | Will Democrats win exactly 6 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 47% | 44% | +2.7pp | 2026-11-03 | |
2757753 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? | 4% | 1% | +2.7pp | 2026-10-01 | |
2109523 | Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 6% | 3% | +2.6pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299954 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | 79% | 82% | -2.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467206 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? | 38% | 35% | +2.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3529064 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on Octob | 18% | 20% | -2.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3539696 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August? | 46% | 48% | -2.5pp | 2026-09-11 | |
2109518 | Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 11% | 8% | +2.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366008 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 39% | 36% | +2.5pp | 2026-10-04 | |
2467206 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? | 38% | 35% | +2.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3013350 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | 23% | 20% | +2.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676784 | Anduril IPO before 2027? | 10% | 8% | +2.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3529062 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.25 on Octob | 5% | 7% | -2.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
1339769 | Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | 6% | 4% | +2.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539698 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in August? | 5% | 2% | +2.4pp | 2026-09-11 | |
1366011 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil | 5% | 3% | +2.4pp | 2026-10-04 | |
3539678 | Will annual inflation be 3.8% in August? | 3% | 1% | +2.4pp | 2026-09-11 | |
701546 | Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 6% | -2.4pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468459 | Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 2% | +2.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676796 | Databricks IPO before 2027? | 8% | 10% | -2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3399459 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 74% | 72% | +2.0pp | 2026-10-31 | |
676779 | Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | 8% | 6% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676789 | Remote IPO before 2027? | 12% | 10% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676793 | Glean IPO before 2027? | 8% | 6% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701495 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | 18% | 16% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701547 | Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 10% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701741 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 6% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1345531 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | 54% | 52% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1808754 | WHOOP IPO before 2027? | 8% | 6% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109518 | Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 10% | 8% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109522 | Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 6% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299955 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | 88% | 90% | -2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467356 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026? | 48% | 50% | -2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468323 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? | 22% | 20% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468324 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 10% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3387867 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026? | 20% | 18% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539695 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in August? | 32% | 30% | +2.0pp | 2026-09-11 | |
1339767 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 14% | -2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468323 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? | 22% | 20% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701495 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | 18% | 16% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1345531 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | 54% | 52% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467356 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026? | 48% | 50% | -2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
562828 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 48% | 50% | -2.0pp | 2026-11-03 | |
701552 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | 10% | 12% | -2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3865961 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | 80% | 78% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3865999 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? | 36% | 34% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866000 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026? | 56% | 58% | -2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866000 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026? | 60% | 58% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3865999 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? | 36% | 34% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3902370 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 68% | 66% | +2.0pp | 2026-11-30 | |
3539669 | Will annual inflation be 2.9% or less in August? | 2% | 0% | +2.0pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3515354 | Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 23% | 22% | +1.9pp | 2026-11-03 | |
676797 | Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? | 12% | 11% | +1.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128405 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 0% | 2% | -1.8pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2468460 | Will Ethereum dip to $600 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 2% | +1.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2412748 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at m | 21% | 23% | -1.6pp | 2026-12-31 | |
562830 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 37% | 36% | +1.6pp | 2026-11-03 | |
3539701 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% or more in August? | 2% | 1% | +1.5pp | 2026-09-11 | |
2412747 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at m | 26% | 24% | +1.5pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3529063 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on Octob | 10% | 12% | -1.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3529064 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on Octob | 22% | 20% | +1.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3529066 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 20 | 36% | 38% | -1.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
2467207 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? | 72% | 73% | -1.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539675 | Will annual inflation be 3.5% in August? | 16% | 18% | -1.5pp | 2026-09-11 | |
2109512 | Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 21% | 22% | -1.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299954 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | 80% | 82% | -1.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3387867 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026? | 16% | 18% | -1.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467207 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? | 72% | 73% | -1.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539674 | Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August? | 44% | 46% | -1.5pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3866004 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $75 by December 31, 2026? | 60% | 62% | -1.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539670 | Will annual inflation be 3.0% in August? | 2% | 1% | +1.5pp | 2026-09-11 | |
701543 | Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 4% | -1.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1321866 | Canva IPO before 2027? | 4% | 3% | +1.4pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366010 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 4% | 3% | +1.4pp | 2026-10-04 | |
701544 | Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 4% | -1.4pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2307824 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | 10% | 9% | +1.4pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539679 | Will annual inflation be 3.9% in August? | 2% | 0% | +1.4pp | 2026-09-11 | |
701492 | Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 5% | -1.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468461 | Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 2% | +1.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366017 | Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilia | 1% | 0% | +1.2pp | 2026-10-04 | |
1366013 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil | 3% | 2% | +1.2pp | 2026-10-04 | |
676797 | Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? | 12% | 11% | +1.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128401 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 2% | 0% | +1.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
3529061 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on October 31, 2 | 5% | 4% | +1.1pp | 2026-10-31 | |
2412750 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at m | 12% | 13% | -1.1pp | 2026-12-31 | |
676778 | Stripe IPO before 2027? | 2% | 3% | -1.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2307825 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | 7% | 6% | +1.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2412749 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at m | 17% | 18% | -1.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3399458 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | 84% | 84% | -1.0pp | 2026-09-30 | |
676781 | Ramp IPO before 2027? | 8% | 10% | -1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676784 | Anduril IPO before 2027? | 7% | 8% | -1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676790 | Mistral AI IPO before 2027? | 8% | 8% | +1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676796 | Databricks IPO before 2027? | 9% | 10% | -1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701494 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 10% | +1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701496 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | 26% | 26% | +1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701504 | Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 2% | +1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701726 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | 65% | 64% | +1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1321868 | Ledger IPO before 2027? | 10% | 10% | +1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1339768 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 6% | +1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128396 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 0% | 1% | -1.0pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2299952 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | 26% | 26% | +1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299961 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? | 6% | 4% | +1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299962 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? | 2% | 4% | -1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539674 | Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August? | 47% | 46% | +1.0pp | 2026-09-11 | |
2109524 | Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 10% | +1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3247642 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | 8% | 8% | +1.0pp | 2026-09-30 | |
3399468 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 62% | 62% | +1.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3515356 | Will Democrats win 7 or more House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 18% | 16% | +1.0pp | 2026-11-03 | |
701547 | Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? | 10% | 10% | +1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299955 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | 89% | 90% | -1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3128888 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 38% | 36% | +1.0pp | 2026-11-01 | |
2412747 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at m | 26% | 24% | +1.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
701726 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | 63% | 64% | -1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3865962 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | 34% | 34% | -1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866010 | Will Hyperliquid reach $130 by December 31, 2026? | 27% | 28% | -1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539700 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in August? | 2% | 1% | +1.0pp | 2026-09-11 | |
701489 | Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | +0.9pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128397 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 21% | 22% | -0.9pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2412753 | Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? | 1% | 0% | +0.9pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3240664 | Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any d | 2% | 1% | +0.9pp | 2026-08-31 | |
2252244 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept | 49% | 50% | -0.9pp | 2026-09-16 | |
2252245 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep | 50% | 50% | +0.8pp | 2026-09-16 | |
701545 | Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 4% | -0.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539677 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in August? | 2% | 2% | +0.8pp | 2026-09-11 | |
1366014 | Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian | 1% | 0% | +0.8pp | 2026-10-04 | |
701488 | Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | +0.7pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701491 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 4% | -0.7pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539699 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in August? | 3% | 2% | +0.7pp | 2026-09-11 | |
676777 | Discord IPO before 2027? | 20% | 21% | -0.7pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2412748 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at m | 22% | 23% | -0.7pp | 2026-12-31 | |
701486 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 1% | +0.7pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109521 | Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 3% | +0.7pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539693 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.1% in August? | 0% | 1% | -0.6pp | 2026-09-11 | |
1057883 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 1% | +0.6pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1393070 | Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1% | 0% | +0.6pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128406 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 1% | 0% | +0.6pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2128403 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 1% | 2% | -0.5pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2109520 | Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 11% | 10% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109524 | Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 11% | 10% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3949523 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 7, 2026? | 100% | 100% | -0.5pp | 2026-09-07 | ✓ |
676798 | Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? | 7% | 6% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701539 | Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1% | 2% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701549 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | 26% | 26% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1057916 | Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1343219 | Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 2% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109515 | Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 13% | 12% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299953 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | 46% | 46% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2307824 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | 8% | 9% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3529063 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on Octob | 12% | 12% | +0.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3539675 | Will annual inflation be 3.5% in August? | 17% | 18% | -0.5pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3539695 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in August? | 30% | 30% | -0.5pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3240664 | Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any d | 2% | 1% | +0.5pp | 2026-08-31 | |
562831 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 12% | 12% | -0.5pp | 2026-11-03 | |
2109513 | Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 30% | 30% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539673 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | 31% | 30% | +0.5pp | 2026-09-11 | |
2299953 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | 46% | 46% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3515353 | Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 10% | 10% | -0.5pp | 2026-11-03 | |
3866004 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $75 by December 31, 2026? | 62% | 62% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
562828 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 49% | 50% | -0.5pp | 2026-11-03 | |
3515353 | Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 10% | 10% | -0.5pp | 2026-11-03 | |
701542 | Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 3% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128410 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 1% | 0% | +0.5pp | 2026-11-07 | |
701490 | Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 3% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701743 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 3% | +0.4pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2412750 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at m | 13% | 13% | +0.4pp | 2026-12-31 | |
562831 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 12% | 12% | +0.4pp | 2026-11-03 | |
1343220 | Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | +0.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1393068 | Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1% | 1% | -0.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1343228 | Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1% | 1% | -0.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366016 | Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the | 0% | 0% | +0.3pp | 2026-10-04 | |
676777 | Discord IPO before 2027? | 21% | 21% | +0.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3128886 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | 59% | 59% | -0.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
562829 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | 1% | 1% | +0.3pp | 2026-11-03 | |
3515356 | Will Democrats win 7 or more House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 16% | 16% | -0.3pp | 2026-11-03 | |
2128399 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 0% | 0% | +0.3pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2128407 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 0% | 1% | -0.3pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2412752 | Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market cl | 7% | 7% | -0.3pp | 2026-12-31 | |
701487 | Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 1% | +0.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701490 | Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 3% | -0.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3515352 | Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 3% | 3% | -0.2pp | 2026-11-03 | |
1366015 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Bra | 0% | 0% | +0.2pp | 2026-10-04 | |
701541 | Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 3% | -0.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1393068 | Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1% | 1% | +0.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539671 | Will annual inflation be 3.1% in August? | 2% | 2% | +0.2pp | 2026-09-11 | |
676788 | Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? | 1% | 1% | +0.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1343228 | Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 1% | +0.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128402 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2128404 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2128409 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2128411 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
3539692 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.0% or less in August? | 1% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3515351 | Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-03 | |
2252246 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se | 1% | 1% | -0.1pp | 2026-09-16 | |
701540 | Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | -0.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701742 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 4% | +0.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701744 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 3% | +0.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128398 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 1% | 1% | -0.1pp | 2026-11-07 | |
3515350 | Will Democrats win fewer than 2 House seats in Ohio in the 2 | 0% | 0% | -0.1pp | 2026-11-03 | |
2252243 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-09-16 | |
562832 | 2026 Balance of Power: Other | 0% | 0% | -0.1pp | 2026-11-03 | |
676786 | Brex IPO before 2027? | 1% | 1% | -0.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1343220 | Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | -0.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128412 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 1% | 1% | -0.0pp | 2026-11-07 | |
3539680 | Will annual inflation be 4.0% or more in August? | 1% | 1% | -0.0pp | 2026-09-11 | |
2109512 | Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 22% | 22% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109513 | Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 30% | 30% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109514 | Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 12% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2355076 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? | 2% | — | — | 2026-07-31 | |
2252242 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se | 0% | 0% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-16 | |
676791 | Deel IPO before 2027? | 4% | 4% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701548 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | 16% | 16% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1321740 | Waymo IPO before 2027? | 3% | 3% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1321771 | Revolut IPO before 2027? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109516 | Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109517 | Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128400 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 14% | 14% | +0.0pp | 2026-11-07 | |
2299960 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467362 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 8% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468319 | Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026? | 88% | 88% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539697 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in August? | 13% | 13% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3539697 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in August? | 13% | 13% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-11 | |
3399459 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 72% | 72% | +0.0pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3515354 | Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 22% | 22% | +0.0pp | 2026-11-03 | |
1366007 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 44% | 44% | +0.0pp | 2026-10-04 | |
2109515 | Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 12% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109514 | Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 12% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676789 | Remote IPO before 2027? | 10% | 10% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468319 | Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026? | 88% | 88% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2510767 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | 42% | 42% | +0.0pp | 2026-12-31 | |
2006983 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3539696 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August? | 48% | 48% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-11 | |
2252243 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep | 0% | 0% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-16 | |
2252242 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se | 0% | 0% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-16 | |
2252246 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se | 1% | 1% | +0.0pp | 2026-09-16 | |
701487 | Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1% | 1% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1321868 | Ledger IPO before 2027? | 10% | 10% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 |