FutureSim · 2026-09-10
Behind the market
0.037agent
vs
0.028market
Family-weighted Brier over 69 event families (372 settled markets) — lower is better. 82 won · 231 lost · 59 tied per market; ahead in 14 of 69 families. Since reset (2026-09-08): 5 settled, ahead in 1 of 5 families, paper $-59.

Today

Beat the price
1/2
of today's resolutions
Paper money · realised
$-450
69 settled · 39 open ($-203 unrealised)

Resolved today

Is it beating the market?

Every market predicted while OPEN and watched to resolution, in resolution order. Agent's last forecast vs the market's last open price, both scored against the outcome. Lower is better; the gap is the edge. The market price is same-day or fresher than the agent's carried belief, so the comparison never favours the agent.
Weighted by family, not by market. Those 372 resolutions span only 69 event families (largest: 36 rungs of “what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-august-2026”), and a ladder is one view wearing several hats. Counting rungs separately is what made batch 1 look like a +0.032 edge when 73% of it was a single Iranian-airspace call spread over 7 rungs. Each family now counts once. Median family edge is -0.0000 and the agent is ahead in 14 of 69 families — the mean is carried by a handful of calls, so read it as an underpowered sample, not a result.

Paper trading

Real-money readiness — 1 of 3 gates passed

The FutureSim paper evaluates the agent against ground truth (Brier), not against market price. Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar — these three gates have to clear before paper becomes real.

GateCurrent ThresholdStatus
Forward-resolved marketsCounted only when the agent predicted a market while it was OPEN and then watched it resolve. Hindsight forecasts on already-closed markets (the RESULTS-SINCE-LAST-SESSION history bundled into every run) don't count.397≥ 50PASS ✓
Net paper PnL (after taker fees)Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar than the paper's Brier-vs-truth evaluation. Fees use Polymarket's live per-category taker caps per 100 shares (geopolitics $0, politics/macro/AI $1.00, crypto $1.75) charged at entry — redemption at resolution is free.$-450.42 over 69 closed> $0 across ≥ 50 closedNO
Calibration RMSEReported only once gate 1 passes — RMSE on fewer than 50 resolved predictions is noise.0.126< 0.10NO

❌ DO NOT BET real money — gates not yet cleared.

Gates pool across models by design — they measure the system (harness + evidence + watchlist + model), so a model swap carries the evidence forward instead of resetting. Forward-resolved by agent: minimalHarness_gpt-56-sol_001 (300), minimalHarness_gpt-56-sol_002 (108), minimalHarness_gpt-55_001 (97).

Calibration — are the percentages honest?
Bars are 95% Wilson intervals. A bin holding 1–4 predictions spans most of the chart — that is sample starvation, not miscalibration.
Signals not traded today — 18

edges ≥ 5pp on markets with no fillable book — forecast and scored, but not traded

Top open disagreements
Deduped by question family so threshold ladders don't drown out other markets.
TitleAgentMarket ΔResolves
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?95%20%+74.5pp2026-10-01
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?72%10%+62.5pp2026-10-01
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?96%34%+61.5pp2026-10-15
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?84%24%+60.0pp2026-10-16
Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?1%57%-56.1pp2027-01-01
Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?60%7%+53.0pp2027-01-01
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?30%82%-52.0pp2026-10-01
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?85%40%+45.0pp2027-01-01
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?65%30%+35.5pp2027-01-01
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher65%30%+35.5pp2027-01-01
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher90%59%+31.0pp2027-01-01
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?30%60%-30.5pp2029-01-01

Belief evolution — top markets by edge

Solid = agent's YES probability. Dashed = Polymarket. One color per market. Lines emerge after ≥2 days of data; day-1 runs show single points.

Execution — trigger loop

shadow — logs intended orders, places none · 6 ticks today · last 01:15 · 12 open intent(s), $23.29 deployed
TimeMarketSideSharesLimitEdgeEst. EVHorizon
01:15minimalHarness_gpt-56-sol_001mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-afd-vote-shareYES51.0pp0.0493pp5.3d
01:15minimalHarness_gpt-56-sol_001what-price-will-xauusd-hit-in-september-2026YES51.0pp0.0495pp6.0d

Trade-the-move (convergence) — second PnL track

Same entries as the hold track, but each position is sold when the market price converges to the agent's number (green fill), stopped on a 15pp adverse move (amber), or held to resolution (fallback). Solid = agent, dashed = market; the shaded gap is the edge being harvested. Separate from the readiness gates — a parallel backtest.
StrategyRealizedAt risk (unrealized)Open
Hold to resolution$-411.45$-202.8539
Trade the move$-405.30$-54.5096
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 in August? · YES · $-63.00 (resolved, 1d)
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in August? · YES · +$61.00 (resolved, 1d)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026? · NO · $-52.00 (stopped, 2d)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026? · NO · $-47.00 (stopped, 3d)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August? · NO · +$46.75 (converged, 1d)
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? · NO · +$45.00 (converged, 1d)
qidtitlesideentry→exitdaysexitP&L
3933484Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 in August?YES0.63→0.001resolved$-63.00
3847190Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in August?YES0.37→1.001resolved+$61.00
3584199Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?NO0.64→0.122stopped$-52.00
3584199Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?NO0.59→0.123stopped$-47.00
3257386Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August?NO0.43→0.901converged+$46.75
2658039GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?NO0.40→0.841converged+$45.00
All 582 forecasts (click a column header to sort)
qidtitleAgent MarketΔ pp ResolvesResolved
2591183Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?95%20%+74.5pp2026-10-01
3667936Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by Septemb72%10%+62.5pp2026-10-01
4118936Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?96%34%+61.5pp2026-10-15
4366394Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October84%24%+60.0pp2026-10-16
2698813Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 201%57%-56.1pp2027-01-01
2698815Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?60%7%+53.0pp2027-01-01
3668503Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?30%82%-52.0pp2026-10-01
1831769Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 85%40%+45.0pp2027-01-01
4118937Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?96%58%+38.5pp2026-10-31
1831760Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 65%30%+35.5pp2027-01-01
3072292Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 265%30%+35.5pp2027-01-01
3667937Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October92%58%+33.5pp2026-11-01
1831761Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 45%13%+31.9pp2027-01-01
3072291Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 290%59%+31.0pp2027-01-01
3090818Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb30%60%-30.5pp2029-01-01
1193305Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 78%48%+30.0pp2027-01-31
3592096Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?58%88%-29.5pp2026-11-01
2875119Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 20255%84%-28.9pp2026-12-31
1193304Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.20%49%-28.8pp2027-01-31
3866475Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 98.00 in September?64%36%+28.0pp2026-09-30
4118938Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?96%70%+27.0pp2026-11-30
3748600Will BSW win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?15%41%-26.4pp2026-09-20
3866498Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in September?30%56%-25.5pp2026-10-01
3251555Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?45%20%+25.0pp2026-10-30
3866499Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in September?48%73%-25.0pp2026-10-01
3504054Will CDU win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?12%36%-23.5pp2026-09-20
4052420Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?78%55%+23.5pp2026-10-01
3866497Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $74 in September?18%40%-22.5pp2026-10-01
3748599Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?68%46%+22.5pp2026-09-20
2591184Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?97%74%+22.5pp2027-01-01
3748222Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?18%39%-21.0pp2027-01-01
4319440Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?64%84%-19.5pp2027-07-01
3072293Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 235%16%+19.5pp2027-01-01
3866013Will Hyperliquid dip to $65 by December 31, 2026?42%60%-18.5pp2027-01-01
3685223Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least45%26%+18.5pp2027-01-01
4063373Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?56%38%+18.5pp2026-10-01
4118937Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?40%58%-18.0pp2026-10-31
3748222Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?57%39%+18.0pp2027-01-01
1366009Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2023%5%+17.9pp2026-10-04
3866477Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 97.00 in September?32%14%+17.8pp2026-09-30
3866474Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 98.50 in September?88%70%+17.5pp2026-09-30
3251556Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?35%52%-17.5pp2026-10-30
4052451Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September?59%42%+17.5pp2026-10-01
3866012Will Hyperliquid reach $120 by December 31, 2026?40%57%-17.0pp2027-01-01
3866012Will Hyperliquid reach $120 by December 31, 2026?40%57%-17.0pp2027-01-01
4370132Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 99.00 in September?92%76%+16.5pp2026-09-30
3685220Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least80%64%+16.5pp2027-01-01
4149412Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in September?82%65%+16.5pp2026-10-01
4338638Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September?97%81%+16.0pp2026-10-01
4052458Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in September?30%14%+16.0pp2026-10-01
1366009Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2020%5%+15.6pp2026-10-04
2875122Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 20214%30%-15.5pp2026-12-31
4052456Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in September?52%36%+15.5pp2026-10-01
3685224Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least33%18%+15.5pp2027-01-01
2109512Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?21%36%-15.0pp2027-01-01
2875121Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.50 (LOW) by December 31, 20225%40%-15.0pp2026-12-31
3866498Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in September?40%56%-15.0pp2026-10-01
3090817Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb12%26%-14.5pp2028-01-01
3539674Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?62%48%+14.5pp2026-09-11
3748342Will Linke win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes47%32%+14.5pp2026-09-20
3748343Will Linke win at least 23% of all valid second votes?6%20%-14.5pp2026-09-20
4052419Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?50%36%+14.5pp2026-10-01
2698813Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2043%57%-14.1pp2027-01-01
2109512Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?22%36%-13.5pp2027-01-01
3748582Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes?18%32%-13.5pp2026-09-20
2698814Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?22%35%-13.2pp2027-01-01
2412745Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at m14%1%+13.2pp2026-12-31
2698814Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?48%35%+12.8pp2027-01-01
3748600Will BSW win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?29%41%-12.8pp2026-09-20
3866008Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?50%62%-12.5pp2027-01-01
3504053Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?50%38%+12.5pp2026-09-20
3866491Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in September?30%42%-12.5pp2026-10-01
3866515Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?30%18%+12.5pp2026-10-01
4052452Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in September?78%66%+12.5pp2026-10-01
653788OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?12%24%-11.5pp2026-12-31
4319439Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?72%84%-11.5pp2027-07-01
676797Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?12%1%+11.1pp2027-01-01
701501Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?28%17%+11.0pp2027-01-01
1366007Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2036%47%-11.0pp2026-10-04
3866009Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?39%28%+11.0pp2027-01-01
3728737Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government?65%76%-11.0pp2027-01-31
4190831Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September?80%91%-10.8pp2026-10-01
2299993Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?23%12%+10.5pp2027-01-01
3013350Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?36%26%+10.5pp2027-01-01
676797Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?12%1%+10.5pp2027-01-01
3866013Will Hyperliquid dip to $65 by December 31, 2026?50%60%-10.5pp2027-01-01
677025Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?36%26%+10.3pp2026-12-31
3702042US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?12%2%+10.2pp2026-09-15
2299990Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?78%88%-9.5pp2027-01-01
1366008Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2039%30%+9.5pp2026-10-04
3865962Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?48%38%+9.5pp2027-01-01
4215003Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?25%34%-9.5pp2027-03-31
4052419Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?44%36%+9.0pp2026-10-01
3702042US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?11%2%+8.7pp2026-09-15
3866513Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?68%60%+8.5pp2026-10-01
4319440Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?75%84%-8.5pp2027-07-01
3517858Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 20220%12%+8.5pp2026-11-01
3685221Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least70%62%+8.5pp2027-01-01
2299986Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?10%18%-8.5pp2027-01-01
2299988Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?30%38%-8.5pp2027-01-01
2307824Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?8%17%-8.3pp2027-01-01
4052447Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in September?18%10%+8.1pp2026-10-01
1345531Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?54%46%+8.0pp2027-01-01
2467206Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?38%30%+8.0pp2027-01-01
676785OpenAI IPO before 2027?18%10%+8.0pp2027-01-01
1345531Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?54%46%+8.0pp2027-01-01
2467206Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?38%30%+8.0pp2027-01-01
1090496NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?14%22%-8.0pp2027-01-01
2822674Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in Se5%13%-7.8pp2026-12-31
3539674Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?55%48%+7.5pp2026-09-11
3728733Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish governmen36%28%+7.5pp2027-01-31
1339767Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?22%14%+7.5pp2027-01-01
2299956Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?88%96%-7.5pp2027-01-01
2412747Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at m26%18%+7.5pp2026-12-31
3702045US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?16%8%+7.5pp2026-09-22
3865960Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?48%56%-7.5pp2027-01-01
3866486Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?32%24%+7.5pp2026-10-01
3072291Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 266%59%+7.5pp2027-01-01
3090818Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb53%60%-7.5pp2029-01-01
3748340Will Linke win less than 17% of all valid second votes?3%10%-7.5pp2026-09-20
2412746Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at m14%7%+7.2pp2026-12-31
1366011Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil22%15%+7.2pp2026-10-04
676785OpenAI IPO before 2027?16%10%+7.0pp2027-01-01
1321654ByteDance IPO before 2027?12%4%+7.0pp2027-01-01
2299954Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?79%86%-7.0pp2027-01-01
2467207Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?72%64%+7.0pp2027-01-01
2412747Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at m26%18%+7.0pp2026-12-31
2467207Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?72%64%+7.0pp2027-01-01
4052423Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?56%64%-7.0pp2026-10-01
4063374Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in September?50%44%+7.0pp2026-10-01
2299953Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?46%53%-6.5pp2027-01-01
2510767US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?42%36%+6.5pp2026-12-31
3529065Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on Octob25%18%+6.5pp2026-10-31
701496Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?30%24%+6.5pp2027-01-01
2299953Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?46%53%-6.5pp2027-01-01
3866008Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?56%62%-6.5pp2027-01-01
2822675Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in S76%70%+6.5pp2026-12-31
3866494Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in September?5%12%-6.5pp2026-10-01
4063374Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in September?50%44%+6.5pp2026-10-01
3685224Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least24%18%+6.5pp2027-01-01
676777Discord IPO before 2027?21%15%+6.5pp2027-01-01
2307824Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?10%17%-6.5pp2027-01-01
676799Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?8%1%+6.4pp2027-01-01
2468319Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026?88%81%+6.4pp2027-01-01
2468319Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026?88%81%+6.4pp2027-01-01
2412746Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at m13%7%+6.2pp2026-12-31
3866492Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in September?18%24%-6.0pp2026-10-01
3081965Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?80%86%-6.0pp2026-10-29
2299952Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?26%32%-6.0pp2027-01-01
3529066Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2044%38%+6.0pp2026-10-31
3128887US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?20%14%+6.0pp2026-10-01
2510767US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?42%36%+6.0pp2026-12-31
2299954Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?80%86%-6.0pp2027-01-01
3866009Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?34%28%+6.0pp2027-01-01
3748343Will Linke win at least 23% of all valid second votes?14%20%-6.0pp2026-09-20
3866515Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?24%18%+6.0pp2026-10-01
3685223Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least32%26%+6.0pp2027-01-01
3748580Will AfD win between 32% and 35% of all valid second votes?28%22%+6.0pp2026-09-20
2324610Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on I48%42%+6.0pp2027-01-01
3728732Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish govern16%22%-6.0pp2027-01-31
3866471Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 100.00 in September?52%46%+6.0pp2026-09-30
2324608Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market 15%21%-6.0pp2027-01-01
4218280Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in September?76%70%+5.5pp2026-10-01
2109513Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?30%36%-5.5pp2027-01-01
2468324Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?16%10%+5.5pp2027-01-01
701494Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?14%9%+5.5pp2027-01-01
4118936Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?29%34%-5.5pp2026-10-15
3090817Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb32%26%+5.5pp2028-01-01
3748341Will Linke win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes45%40%+5.5pp2026-09-20
2324607Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market 12%6%+5.5pp2027-01-01
3866486Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?30%24%+5.5pp2026-10-01
4215004Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?55%60%-5.5pp2027-06-30
4319441Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?80%86%-5.5pp2027-07-01
676777Discord IPO before 2027?20%15%+5.5pp2027-01-01
3539672Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August?12%6%+5.2pp2026-09-11
4218286Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?72%67%+5.2pp2026-10-01
2128413Will another result occur for the next governing coalition o4%9%-5.0pp2026-11-07
4190833Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in September?76%81%-5.0pp2026-10-01
676787Rippling IPO before 2027?14%8%+5.0pp2027-01-01
676782Celonis IPO before 2027?10%5%+5.0pp2027-01-01
701495Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?18%14%+5.0pp2027-01-01
2109513Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?30%36%-5.0pp2027-01-01
2109514Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?12%6%+5.0pp2027-01-01
3702045US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?14%8%+5.0pp2026-09-22
3529064Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on Octob22%17%+5.0pp2026-10-31
701495Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?18%14%+5.0pp2027-01-01
2109514Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?12%6%+5.0pp2027-01-01
701548Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?20%14%+5.0pp2027-01-01
3865962Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?34%38%-5.0pp2027-01-01
3902370Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?64%70%-5.0pp2026-11-30
3685221Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least56%62%-5.0pp2027-01-01
3667937Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October64%58%+5.0pp2026-11-01
3866506Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in September?13%8%+5.0pp2026-10-01
4035901Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?15%10%+4.8pp2026-10-01
701554Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?8%3%+4.8pp2027-01-01
3748581Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes?49%44%+4.8pp2026-09-20
2412750Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at m12%16%-4.7pp2026-12-31
2252244Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept41%46%-4.5pp2026-09-16
2006983US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?10%6%+4.5pp2027-01-01
3399468Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?60%64%-4.5pp2026-12-31
2412749Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at m17%22%-4.5pp2026-12-31
3539673Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?27%32%-4.5pp2026-09-11
701501Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?22%17%+4.5pp2027-01-01
3866007Will Hyperliquid reach $140 by December 31, 2026?25%20%+4.5pp2027-01-01
3866006Will Hyperliquid reach $150 by December 31, 2026?19%14%+4.5pp2027-01-01
2109520Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?15%10%+4.5pp2027-01-01
3667936Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by Septemb14%10%+4.5pp2026-10-01
2421094Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?64%60%+4.5pp2027-07-01
1397281Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2045%40%+4.5pp2027-01-01
2421094Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?55%60%-4.5pp2027-07-01
3090816Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb2%6%-4.5pp2027-01-01
1321867Epic Games IPO before 2027?9%4%+4.5pp2027-01-01
2252245Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep58%54%+4.4pp2026-09-16
3515354Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Ohio in the 202623%19%+4.4pp2026-11-03
2109519Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?8%3%+4.2pp2027-01-01
2412744Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market cl5%1%+4.1pp2026-12-31
3081966Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 18%14%+4.0pp2026-10-29
4218280Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in September?74%70%+4.0pp2026-10-01
2006983US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?10%6%+4.0pp2027-01-01
701726Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?65%61%+4.0pp2027-01-01
3128888US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?38%34%+4.0pp2026-11-01
3670499US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?60%56%+4.0pp2027-03-31
2299952Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?28%32%-4.0pp2027-01-01
3866010Will Hyperliquid reach $130 by December 31, 2026?32%28%+4.0pp2027-01-01
2324607Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market 10%6%+4.0pp2027-01-01
4215004Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?56%60%-4.0pp2027-06-30
2299989Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?55%59%-4.0pp2027-01-01
4052456Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in September?32%36%-4.0pp2026-10-01
3090816Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb10%6%+4.0pp2027-01-01
2757753US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?4%1%+3.8pp2026-10-01
2412751Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at m8%4%+3.8pp2026-12-31
4191228Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 99.50 in September?72%68%+3.5pp2026-09-30
4052427Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?29%26%+3.5pp2026-10-01
3399459Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?72%76%-3.5pp2026-10-31
676778Stripe IPO before 2027?2%5%-3.5pp2027-01-01
701553Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?9%6%+3.5pp2027-01-01
2128400Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab14%17%-3.5pp2026-11-07
701549Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?30%26%+3.5pp2027-01-01
3865999Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?36%33%+3.5pp2027-01-01
3865999Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?36%33%+3.5pp2027-01-01
676784Anduril IPO before 2027?10%7%+3.5pp2027-01-01
653788OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?20%24%-3.5pp2026-12-31
3072292Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 233%30%+3.5pp2027-01-01
3072294Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 216%12%+3.5pp2027-01-01
3748340Will Linke win less than 17% of all valid second votes?14%10%+3.5pp2026-09-20
4366394Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October28%24%+3.5pp2026-10-16
701741Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?8%5%+3.3pp2027-01-01
3515355Will Democrats win exactly 6 House seats in Ohio in the 202647%50%-3.3pp2026-11-03
2412750Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at m13%16%-3.2pp2026-12-31
3539676Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August?5%2%+3.1pp2026-09-11
2109523Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?6%2%+3.0pp2027-01-01
676783Vanta IPO before 2027?10%6%+3.0pp2027-01-01
701496Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?26%24%+3.0pp2027-01-01
701503Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?8%4%+3.0pp2027-01-01
701546Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?4%7%-3.0pp2027-01-01
1321865Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?8%6%+3.0pp2027-01-01
2109525Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?8%4%+3.0pp2027-01-01
2299955Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?88%91%-3.0pp2027-01-01
2467357Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026?66%68%-3.0pp2027-01-01
2468325Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 by December 31, 2026?8%6%+3.0pp2027-01-01
3399459Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?72%76%-3.0pp2026-10-31
1339767Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?12%14%-3.0pp2027-01-01
5628302026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House38%36%+3.0pp2026-11-03
5628282026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House48%50%-3.0pp2026-11-03
2467357Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026?66%68%-3.0pp2027-01-01
3865961Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?84%81%+3.0pp2027-01-01
4117193US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?20%18%+3.0pp2026-10-31
4052458Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in September?11%14%-3.0pp2026-10-01
2698815Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?10%7%+3.0pp2027-01-01
3748581Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes?47%44%+3.0pp2026-09-20
2324609Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market 22%25%-3.0pp2027-01-01
2299989Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?56%59%-3.0pp2027-01-01
3539672Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August?3%6%-2.9pp2026-09-11
4190831Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September?88%91%-2.9pp2026-10-01
2757753US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?4%1%+2.8pp2026-10-01
3748580Will AfD win between 32% and 35% of all valid second votes?19%22%-2.8pp2026-09-20
3539678Will annual inflation be 3.8% in August?3%0%+2.7pp2026-09-11
1366011Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil12%15%-2.6pp2026-10-04
677024Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?68%70%-2.5pp2026-12-31
4052452Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in September?68%66%+2.5pp2026-10-01
4052420Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?57%55%+2.5pp2026-10-01
3128888US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?36%34%+2.5pp2026-11-01
3128887US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?17%14%+2.5pp2026-10-01
701494Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?12%9%+2.5pp2027-01-01
1321771Revolut IPO before 2027?6%3%+2.5pp2027-01-01
2468323Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?22%19%+2.5pp2027-01-01
3539695Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in August?30%32%-2.5pp2026-09-11
2109518Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?11%8%+2.5pp2027-01-01
3515354Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Ohio in the 202622%19%+2.5pp2026-11-03
2468323Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?22%19%+2.5pp2027-01-01
2128408Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat42%45%-2.5pp2026-11-07
3387867Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?16%18%-2.5pp2027-01-01
3013350Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?23%26%-2.5pp2027-01-01
3866000Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?56%58%-2.5pp2027-01-01
3866004Will Hyperliquid dip to $75 by December 31, 2026?60%62%-2.5pp2027-01-01
3866006Will Hyperliquid reach $150 by December 31, 2026?17%14%+2.5pp2027-01-01
2591183Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?18%20%-2.5pp2026-10-01
2589812Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Octo65%68%-2.5pp2026-10-28
3748598Will BSW win less than 3% of all valid second votes?15%12%+2.5pp2026-09-20
3866493Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in September?10%12%-2.5pp2026-10-01
1339769Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?6%4%+2.5pp2027-01-01
701552Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?15%13%+2.4pp2027-01-01
701552Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?10%13%-2.4pp2027-01-01
2128397Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab19%21%-2.3pp2026-11-07
3539677Will annual inflation be 3.7% in August?2%0%+2.3pp2026-09-11
2822675Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in S72%70%+2.2pp2026-12-31
2468459Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026?4%2%+2.1pp2027-01-01
1366013Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil3%1%+2.1pp2026-10-04
3539669Will annual inflation be 2.9% or less in August?2%0%+2.0pp2026-09-11
3866505Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in September?18%16%+2.0pp2026-10-01
3728736Will the Christian Democrats (KD) be in the next Swedish gov32%30%+2.0pp2027-01-31
4338638Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September?83%81%+2.0pp2026-10-01
4190833Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in September?79%81%-2.0pp2026-10-01
3399458Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?84%86%-2.0pp2026-09-30
676779Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?8%6%+2.0pp2027-01-01
676792Anthropic IPO before 2027?86%88%-2.0pp2027-01-01
676793Glean IPO before 2027?8%6%+2.0pp2027-01-01
701502Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?10%8%+2.0pp2027-01-01
701547Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?12%10%+2.0pp2027-01-01
1808754WHOOP IPO before 2027?8%6%+2.0pp2027-01-01
2109518Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?10%8%+2.0pp2027-01-01
2109522Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?8%6%+2.0pp2027-01-01
2468324Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?12%10%+2.0pp2027-01-01
3539675Will annual inflation be 3.5% in August?17%15%+2.0pp2026-09-11
3399468Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?62%64%-2.0pp2026-12-31
3515356Will Democrats win 7 or more House seats in Ohio in the 202618%16%+2.0pp2026-11-03
2299955Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?89%91%-2.0pp2027-01-01
701726Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?63%61%+2.0pp2027-01-01
701502Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?10%8%+2.0pp2027-01-01
1831769Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 42%40%+2.0pp2027-01-01
1831760Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 32%30%+2.0pp2027-01-01
3072293Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 218%16%+2.0pp2027-01-01
3728737Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government?78%76%+2.0pp2027-01-31
2413330Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?86%88%-2.0pp2027-07-01
4149412Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in September?63%65%-2.0pp2026-10-01
4052425Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?40%42%-2.0pp2026-10-01
701544Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026?2%4%-2.0pp2027-01-01
701743Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026?3%1%+1.9pp2027-01-01
3529062Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.25 on Octob5%7%-1.9pp2026-10-31
1366012Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil6%4%+1.8pp2026-10-04
2468460Will Ethereum dip to $600 by December 31, 2026?4%2%+1.8pp2027-01-01
2822676Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in S16%18%-1.8pp2026-12-31
3539701Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% or more in August?2%1%+1.7pp2026-09-11
701493Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?4%6%-1.6pp2027-01-01
5628302026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House37%36%+1.6pp2026-11-03
1366010Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 204%3%+1.6pp2026-10-04
3539679Will annual inflation be 3.9% in August?2%0%+1.6pp2026-09-11
653788OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?25%24%+1.5pp2026-12-31
3728733Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish governmen30%28%+1.5pp2027-01-31
4052451Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September?43%42%+1.5pp2026-10-01
2252244Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept47%46%+1.5pp2026-09-16
676798Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?7%8%-1.5pp2027-01-01
3529065Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on Octob20%18%+1.5pp2026-10-31
3529063Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on Octob10%12%-1.5pp2026-10-31
3529066Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2036%38%-1.5pp2026-10-31
676789Remote IPO before 2027?10%12%-1.5pp2027-01-01
3539696Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August?48%47%+1.5pp2026-09-11
3866011Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026?50%52%-1.5pp2027-01-01
3866000Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?60%58%+1.5pp2027-01-01
3866011Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026?50%52%-1.5pp2027-01-01
3902370Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?68%70%-1.5pp2026-11-30
3592096Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?89%88%+1.5pp2026-11-01
1090496NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?20%22%-1.5pp2027-01-01
1397281Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2042%40%+1.5pp2027-01-01
2589813Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Oct32%30%+1.5pp2026-10-28
4052423Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?62%64%-1.5pp2026-10-01
3685220Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least65%64%+1.5pp2027-01-01
5628282026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House49%50%-1.5pp2026-11-03
1321866Canva IPO before 2027?4%3%+1.4pp2027-01-01
3539692Will Core CPI YoY be 2.0% or less in August?1%2%-1.4pp2026-09-11
1193304Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.50%49%+1.4pp2027-01-31
2128401Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab2%0%+1.3pp2026-11-07
701543Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026?2%4%-1.3pp2027-01-01
1343219Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?3%2%+1.3pp2027-01-01
2822676Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in S19%18%+1.2pp2026-12-31
2128405Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat0%2%-1.2pp2026-11-07
1366017Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilia1%0%+1.2pp2026-10-04
3539698Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in August?5%3%+1.2pp2026-09-11
701490Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?3%2%+1.1pp2027-01-01
3529061Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on October 31, 25%4%+1.1pp2026-10-31
701504Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?3%2%+1.1pp2027-01-01
701545Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?4%5%-1.1pp2027-01-01
3539694Will Core CPI YoY be 2.2% in August?3%4%-1.1pp2026-09-11
701492Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?4%5%-1.1pp2027-01-01
701744Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026?3%2%+1.1pp2027-01-01
2299962Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?2%4%-1.1pp2027-01-01
3539693Will Core CPI YoY be 2.1% in August?0%2%-1.0pp2026-09-11
3539700Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in August?2%1%+1.0pp2026-09-11
3866513Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?60%60%+1.0pp2026-10-01
4063373Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?36%38%-1.0pp2026-10-01
2252245Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep52%54%-1.0pp2026-09-16
676781Ramp IPO before 2027?8%10%-1.0pp2027-01-01
676790Mistral AI IPO before 2027?8%8%+1.0pp2027-01-01
701548Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?16%14%+1.0pp2027-01-01
1321868Ledger IPO before 2027?10%10%+1.0pp2027-01-01
1339768Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?8%6%+1.0pp2027-01-01
2128408Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat44%45%-1.0pp2026-11-07
2299960Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?6%4%+1.0pp2027-01-01
2299961Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?6%4%+1.0pp2027-01-01
2467356Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?48%48%-1.0pp2027-01-01
3387867Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?20%18%+1.0pp2027-01-01
3529063Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on Octob10%12%-1.0pp2026-10-31
3539696Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August?46%47%-1.0pp2026-09-11
3399458Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?88%86%+1.0pp2026-09-30
2109524Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?12%10%+1.0pp2027-01-01
3539675Will annual inflation be 3.5% in August?16%15%+1.0pp2026-09-11
3247642US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?8%8%+1.0pp2026-09-30
2467356Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?48%48%-1.0pp2027-01-01
5628312026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House12%12%-1.0pp2026-11-03
701547Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?10%10%+1.0pp2027-01-01
3865961Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?80%81%-1.0pp2027-01-01
3866010Will Hyperliquid reach $130 by December 31, 2026?27%28%-1.0pp2027-01-01
3504054Will CDU win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?36%36%+1.0pp2026-09-20
3748341Will Linke win between 17% and 20% of all valid second votes40%40%+1.0pp2026-09-20
3748342Will Linke win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes34%32%+1.0pp2026-09-20
2589813Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Oct30%30%-1.0pp2026-10-28
2875121Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.50 (LOW) by December 31, 20239%40%-1.0pp2026-12-31
665513Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?14%16%-1.0pp2027-01-01
2413330Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?87%88%-1.0pp2027-07-01
3866506Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in September?9%8%+1.0pp2026-10-01
3072294Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 212%12%-1.0pp2027-01-01
701486Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?2%1%+0.9pp2027-01-01
701490Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?3%2%+0.9pp2027-01-01
2128396Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab0%1%-0.9pp2026-11-07
3539699Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in August?3%2%+0.9pp2026-09-11
2412748Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at m21%22%-0.9pp2026-12-31
3539671Will annual inflation be 3.1% in August?2%1%+0.9pp2026-09-11
701488Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?2%1%+0.9pp2027-01-01
3539670Will annual inflation be 3.0% in August?2%1%+0.8pp2026-09-11
2468461Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026?3%2%+0.8pp2027-01-01
3748599Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?45%46%-0.8pp2026-09-20
1057883Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?2%1%+0.8pp2027-01-01
1343220Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?2%1%+0.8pp2027-01-01
4052447Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in September?11%10%+0.8pp2026-10-01
3515356Will Democrats win 7 or more House seats in Ohio in the 202616%16%+0.7pp2026-11-03
1057916Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?2%2%+0.7pp2027-01-01
701489Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?2%2%+0.7pp2027-01-01
2109521Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?4%3%+0.7pp2027-01-01
1366014Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian 1%0%+0.6pp2026-10-04
1393070Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?1%0%+0.6pp2027-01-01
677026Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?14%13%+0.6pp2026-12-31
2128398Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab1%1%-0.6pp2026-11-07
2822674Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in Se12%13%-0.6pp2026-12-31
3515353Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Ohio in the 202610%10%+0.5pp2026-11-03
3866497Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $74 in September?41%40%+0.5pp2026-10-01
3866492Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in September?24%24%-0.5pp2026-10-01
3866493Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in September?12%12%-0.5pp2026-10-01
677024Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?70%70%-0.5pp2026-12-31
3748598Will BSW win less than 3% of all valid second votes?13%12%+0.5pp2026-09-20
3247642US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?8%8%+0.5pp2026-09-30
676789Remote IPO before 2027?12%12%+0.5pp2027-01-01
676796Databricks IPO before 2027?9%8%+0.5pp2027-01-01
701549Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?26%26%-0.5pp2027-01-01
2109515Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?13%12%+0.5pp2027-01-01
2109520Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?11%10%+0.5pp2027-01-01
2109524Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?11%10%+0.5pp2027-01-01
2307825Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?7%6%+0.5pp2027-01-01
2467362Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?8%8%+0.5pp2027-01-01
3539697Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in August?13%12%+0.5pp2026-09-11
3670499US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?56%56%-0.5pp2027-03-31
3539697Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in August?13%12%+0.5pp2026-09-11
676792Anthropic IPO before 2027?88%88%-0.5pp2027-01-01
3515355Will Democrats win exactly 6 House seats in Ohio in the 202651%50%+0.5pp2026-11-03
2412749Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at m22%22%+0.5pp2026-12-31
3539673Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?31%32%-0.5pp2026-09-11
2128400Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab18%17%+0.5pp2026-11-07
3515353Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Ohio in the 202610%10%+0.5pp2026-11-03
3866007Will Hyperliquid reach $140 by December 31, 2026?21%20%+0.5pp2027-01-01
3865960Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?55%56%-0.5pp2027-01-01
3866004Will Hyperliquid dip to $75 by December 31, 2026?62%62%-0.5pp2027-01-01
4117193US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?17%18%-0.5pp2026-10-31
1393068Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?1%1%+0.5pp2027-01-01
676796Databricks IPO before 2027?8%8%-0.5pp2027-01-01
676787Rippling IPO before 2027?9%8%+0.5pp2027-01-01
3748582Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes?32%32%+0.5pp2026-09-20
3866474Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 98.50 in September?70%70%-0.5pp2026-09-30
3251555Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?20%20%+0.5pp2026-10-30
3728732Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish govern22%22%+0.5pp2027-01-31
4319439Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?84%84%+0.5pp2027-07-01
665513Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?16%16%+0.5pp2027-01-01
4215005Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?86%86%-0.5pp2027-12-31
4052425Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?42%42%+0.5pp2026-10-01
3866471Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 100.00 in September?46%46%-0.5pp2026-09-30
2299988Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?38%38%-0.5pp2027-01-01
2299986Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?18%18%-0.5pp2027-01-01
2128406Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat1%0%+0.5pp2026-11-07
701541Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?2%3%-0.5pp2027-01-01
701542Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026?2%3%-0.5pp2027-01-01
2128410Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat1%0%+0.5pp2026-11-07
3539680Will annual inflation be 4.0% or more in August?1%0%+0.5pp2026-09-11
701487Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?2%1%+0.5pp2027-01-01
701742Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?4%4%+0.5pp2027-01-01
3128886US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?59%59%+0.5pp2027-01-01
701491Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?3%3%+0.4pp2027-01-01
701539Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?1%2%-0.4pp2027-01-01
1343228Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?1%1%-0.4pp2027-01-01
2412753Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?1%1%+0.4pp2026-12-31
4218286Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?66%67%-0.3pp2026-10-01
677025Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?26%26%+0.3pp2026-12-31
1343220Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?2%1%+0.3pp2027-01-01
1366016Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 0%0%+0.3pp2026-10-04
3128886US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?59%59%+0.3pp2027-01-01
2128397Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab21%21%-0.3pp2026-11-07
2128399Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab0%0%+0.3pp2026-11-07
676788Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?1%1%+0.2pp2027-01-01
1366015Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Bra0%0%+0.2pp2026-10-04
2128407Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat0%1%-0.2pp2026-11-07
701487Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?1%1%+0.2pp2027-01-01
2128403Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab1%1%+0.2pp2026-11-07
3515352Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Ohio in the 20263%3%+0.2pp2026-11-03
2252246Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se1%1%-0.1pp2026-09-16
2128402Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab0%0%+0.1pp2026-11-07
2128404Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat0%0%+0.1pp2026-11-07
2128409Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat0%0%+0.1pp2026-11-07
2128411Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat0%0%+0.1pp2026-11-07
1831761Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 13%13%+0.1pp2027-01-01
2412752Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market cl7%7%+0.1pp2026-12-31
3515351Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Ohio in the 20260%0%+0.1pp2026-11-03
5628312026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House12%12%-0.1pp2026-11-03
676786Brex IPO before 2027?1%1%-0.1pp2027-01-01
1343228Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?2%1%+0.1pp2027-01-01
3866477Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 97.00 in September?14%14%-0.1pp2026-09-30
5628292026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House1%1%+0.1pp2026-11-03
4035901Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?10%10%+0.1pp2026-10-01
2875119Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 20284%84%+0.1pp2026-12-31
677026Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?14%13%+0.1pp2026-12-31
2252243Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep0%0%+0.1pp2026-09-16
5628322026 Balance of Power: Other0%0%-0.1pp2026-11-03
1393068Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?1%1%-0.1pp2027-01-01
2412748Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at m22%22%+0.1pp2026-12-31
3515350Will Democrats win fewer than 2 House seats in Ohio in the 20%0%-0.1pp2026-11-03
2252246Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se1%1%-0.1pp2026-09-16
2128412Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat1%1%-0.0pp2026-11-07
4191228Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 99.50 in September?68%68%+0.0pp2026-09-30
4370132Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 99.00 in September?76%76%+0.0pp2026-09-30
3866505Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in September?16%16%+0.0pp2026-10-01
4052427Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?26%26%+0.0pp2026-10-01
3081965Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?86%86%+0.0pp2026-10-29
3081966Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 14%14%+0.0pp2026-10-29
4118938Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?70%70%+0.0pp2026-11-30
2875122Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 20230%30%+0.0pp2026-12-31
2299990Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?88%88%+0.0pp2027-01-01
2299993Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?12%12%+0.0pp2027-01-01
3728736Will the Christian Democrats (KD) be in the next Swedish gov30%30%+0.0pp2027-01-31
3866491Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in September?42%42%+0.0pp2026-10-01
3866499Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in September?73%73%+0.0pp2026-10-01
3866494Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in September?12%12%+0.0pp2026-10-01
2591184Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?74%74%+0.0pp2027-01-01
2324608Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market 21%21%+0.0pp2027-01-01
2324609Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market 25%25%+0.0pp2027-01-01
2324610Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on I42%42%+0.0pp2027-01-01
1366007Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2047%47%+0.0pp2026-10-04
1366008Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2030%30%+0.0pp2026-10-04
2355076US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?2%——2026-07-31
2252242Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se0%0%+0.0pp2026-09-16
676784Anduril IPO before 2027?7%7%+0.0pp2027-01-01
676791Deel IPO before 2027?4%4%+0.0pp2027-01-01
701540Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026?2%2%+0.0pp2027-01-01
1321740Waymo IPO before 2027?3%3%+0.0pp2027-01-01
2109516Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?8%8%+0.0pp2027-01-01
2109517Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?6%6%+0.0pp2027-01-01
3529064Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on Octob17%17%+0.0pp2026-10-31
3539695Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in August?32%32%+0.0pp2026-09-11
2109515Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?12%12%+0.0pp2027-01-01
2006983US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?6%6%+0.0pp2027-01-01
2252243Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep0%0%+0.0pp2026-09-16
2252242Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Se0%0%+0.0pp2026-09-16
1321868Ledger IPO before 2027?10%10%+0.0pp2027-01-01
3504053Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?38%38%+0.0pp2026-09-20
3866475Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 98.00 in September?36%36%+0.0pp2026-09-30
3668503Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?82%82%+0.0pp2026-10-01
2589812Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Octo68%68%+0.0pp2026-10-28
3251556Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?52%52%+0.0pp2026-10-30
3517858Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 20212%12%+0.0pp2026-11-01
1193305Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 48%48%+0.0pp2027-01-31
4215003Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?34%34%+0.0pp2027-03-31
4215005Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?86%86%+0.0pp2027-12-31
4319441Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?86%86%+0.0pp2027-07-01
3866500Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in September?80%——2026-09-09✓
3954343Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?74%——2026-09-09✓
3954343Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September?72%——2026-09-09✓
3866500Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in September?72%——2026-09-09✓