FutureSim · 2026-10-01
Behind the market
0.055agent
vs
0.037market
Family-weighted Brier over 84 event families (496 settled markets) — lower is better. 120 won · 316 lost · 60 tied per market; ahead in 17 of 84 families. Since reset (2026-09-08): 129 settled, ahead in 4 of 25 families, paper $-67.

Today

Beat the price
2/29
of today's resolutions
Paper money · realised
$-459
92 settled · 47 open ($+9 unrealised)

Resolved today

Is it beating the market?

Every market predicted while OPEN and watched to resolution, in resolution order. Agent's last forecast vs the market's last open price, both scored against the outcome. Lower is better; the gap is the edge. The market price is same-day or fresher than the agent's carried belief, so the comparison never favours the agent.
Weighted by family, not by market. Those 496 resolutions span only 84 event families (largest: 36 rungs of “what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-august-2026”), and a ladder is one view wearing several hats. Counting rungs separately is what made batch 1 look like a +0.032 edge when 73% of it was a single Iranian-airspace call spread over 7 rungs. Each family now counts once. Median family edge is -0.0000 and the agent is ahead in 17 of 84 families — the mean is carried by a handful of calls, so read it as an underpowered sample, not a result.

Paper trading

Real-money readiness — 1 of 3 gates passed

The FutureSim paper evaluates the agent against ground truth (Brier), not against market price. Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar — these three gates have to clear before paper becomes real.

GateCurrent ThresholdStatus
Forward-resolved marketsCounted only when the agent predicted a market while it was OPEN and then watched it resolve. Hindsight forecasts on already-closed markets (the RESULTS-SINCE-LAST-SESSION history bundled into every run) don't count.521≥ 50PASS ✓
Net paper PnL (after taker fees)Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar than the paper's Brier-vs-truth evaluation. Fees use Polymarket's live per-category taker caps per 100 shares (geopolitics $0, politics/macro/AI $1.00, crypto $1.75) charged at entry — redemption at resolution is free.$-458.87 over 92 closed> $0 across ≥ 50 closedNO
Calibration RMSEReported only once gate 1 passes — RMSE on fewer than 50 resolved predictions is noise.0.119< 0.10NO

❌ DO NOT BET real money — gates not yet cleared.

Gates pool across models by design — they measure the system (harness + evidence + watchlist + model), so a model swap carries the evidence forward instead of resetting. Forward-resolved by agent: minimalHarness_gpt-56-sol_001 (424), minimalHarness_gpt-56-sol_002 (217), minimalHarness_gpt-55_001 (97).

Calibration — are the percentages honest?
Bars are 95% Wilson intervals. A bin holding 1–4 predictions spans most of the chart — that is sample starvation, not miscalibration.
Signals not traded today — 5

edges ≥ 5pp on markets with no fillable book — forecast and scored, but not traded

Top open disagreements
Deduped by question family so threshold ladders don't drown out other markets.
TitleAgentMarket ΔResolves
Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?1%98%-97.3pp2026-09-20
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?95%1%+94.1pp2026-10-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September?87%0%+87.0pp2026-10-01
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?21%100%-79.0pp2027-01-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?99%21%+78.0pp2026-10-01
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?96%20%+76.5pp2026-10-15
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 in September?76%0%+75.8pp2026-10-01
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?34%100%-66.0pp2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?64%0%+64.0pp2026-10-01
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?63%4%+59.1pp2026-11-01
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 in September?56%0%+55.9pp2026-10-01
Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?60%6%+53.5pp2027-01-01

Belief evolution — top markets by edge

Solid = agent's YES probability. Dashed = Polymarket. One color per market. Lines emerge after ≥2 days of data; day-1 runs show single points.

Execution — trigger loop

shadow — logs intended orders, places none · 6 ticks today · last 01:15 · 11 open intent(s), $18.95 deployed
TimeMarketSideSharesLimitEdgeEst. EVHorizon
01:15minimalHarness_gpt-56-sol_001what-price-will-hyperliquid-hit-before-2027YES55.0pp0.0874pp10.5d
01:15minimalHarness_gpt-56-sol_001will-any-ai-model-reach-coding-arena-score-by-december-31YES51.0pp0.0461pp5.5d

Trade-the-move (convergence) — second PnL track

Same entries as the hold track, but each position is sold when the market price converges to the agent's number (green fill), stopped on a 15pp adverse move (amber), or held to resolution (fallback). Solid = agent, dashed = market; the shaded gap is the edge being harvested. Separate from the readiness gates — a parallel backtest.
StrategyRealizedAt risk (unrealized)Open
Hold to resolution$-401.55$+9.2047
Trade the move$+276.90$-129.6579
Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin stat · YES · +$82.20 (converged, 7d)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in Septem · NO · $-71.00 (resolved, 1d)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 in August? · YES · $-63.00 (resolved, 1d)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in September · NO · +$61.15 (converged, 1d)
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in August? · YES · +$61.00 (resolved, 1d)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 202 · NO · $-58.00 (resolved, 10d)
qidtitlesideentry→exitdaysexitP&L
3504053Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin statYES0.16→0.987converged+$82.20
4884203Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in SeptemNO0.71→0.001resolved$-71.00
3933484Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 in August?YES0.63→0.001resolved$-63.00
3866492Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in SeptemberNO0.29→0.911converged+$61.15
3847190Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in August?YES0.37→1.001resolved+$61.00
2510767US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 202NO0.58→0.0010resolved$-58.00
All 563 forecasts (click a column header to sort)
qidtitleAgent MarketΔ pp ResolvesResolved
3504053Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?1%98%-97.3pp2026-09-20
2591183Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?95%1%+94.1pp2026-10-01
4689728Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September?87%0%+87.0pp2026-10-01
2109512Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?21%100%-79.0pp2027-01-01
5157395Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?99%21%+78.0pp2026-10-01
4118936Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?96%20%+76.5pp2026-10-15
4689737Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 in September?76%0%+75.8pp2026-10-01
2109512Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?34%100%-66.0pp2027-01-01
4617905Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?64%0%+64.0pp2026-10-01
2421094Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?63%4%+59.1pp2026-11-01
4689737Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 in September?56%0%+55.9pp2026-10-01
4118937Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?96%41%+55.5pp2026-10-31
2698815Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?60%6%+53.5pp2027-01-01
2698813Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 201%54%-52.6pp2027-01-01
2421094Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?56%4%+52.1pp2026-11-01
4797724Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September?52%1%+50.6pp2026-10-01
1831769Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 85%36%+49.5pp2027-01-01
4797724Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September?50%1%+48.6pp2026-10-01
4618778Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?48%0%+48.0pp2026-10-01
4052455Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in September?47%0%+47.0pp2026-10-01
4218280Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in September?43%0%+43.0pp2026-10-01
4052457Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in September?43%0%+43.0pp2026-10-01
4618778Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?43%0%+43.0pp2026-10-01
4052425Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?42%0%+42.0pp2026-10-01
4689728Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September?42%0%+42.0pp2026-10-01
4052449Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September?40%0%+39.8pp2026-10-01
1831760Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 65%26%+39.5pp2027-01-01
1831761Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 45%6%+39.1pp2027-01-01
4366394Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October60%22%+38.5pp2026-10-16
4319440Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?65%26%+38.5pp2026-11-16
3667937Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October87%49%+38.0pp2026-11-01
4118938Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?96%58%+38.0pp2026-11-30
4052425Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?38%0%+38.0pp2026-10-01
4838804Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October82%44%+37.5pp2026-10-24
3251555Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?45%8%+37.0pp2026-10-30
1193305Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 78%44%+34.5pp2027-02-01
4890804Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?55%90%-34.5pp2027-01-01
3504054Will CDU win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?36%2%+34.2pp2026-09-20
2324608Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market 36%3%+33.1pp2027-01-01
3728734Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?19%52%-32.5pp2027-02-01
3081966Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 42%10%+32.0pp2026-10-30
4689727Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?32%0%+31.7pp2026-10-01
3748222Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?18%50%-31.5pp2027-01-01
3081965Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?56%88%-31.5pp2026-10-30
3072292Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 265%34%+31.0pp2027-01-01
3072291Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 290%59%+31.0pp2027-01-01
2299953Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?22%52%-30.5pp2027-01-05
4052456Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in September?30%0%+29.9pp2026-10-01
2324608Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market 32%3%+29.1pp2027-01-01
4052427Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?29%0%+28.9pp2026-10-01
2589812Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Octo38%66%-27.5pp2026-10-29
2324607Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market 30%3%+27.2pp2027-01-01
1193304Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.20%47%-27.1pp2027-02-01
4838803Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October43%16%+27.0pp2026-10-16
4218280Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in September?27%0%+26.9pp2026-10-01
3866000Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?55%28%+26.5pp2027-01-01
2589813Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Oct60%34%+26.5pp2026-10-29
2591184Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?97%70%+26.5pp2027-01-01
3866515Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?25%0%+24.9pp2026-10-01
4761842Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?25%1%+24.4pp2026-10-01
4761842Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?25%1%+24.4pp2026-10-01
2324609Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market 25%1%+24.1pp2027-01-01
1397281Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2045%21%+24.0pp2027-01-01
4052427Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?24%0%+23.9pp2026-10-01
3866511Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?24%0%+23.9pp2026-10-01
3866512Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?24%0%+23.9pp2026-10-01
4052456Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in September?24%0%+23.9pp2026-10-01
3251556Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?35%58%-23.5pp2026-10-30
3866515Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?24%0%+23.4pp2026-10-01
3866009Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?39%16%+23.0pp2027-01-01
665513Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 32%10%+22.5pp2027-01-01
4617905Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?22%0%+21.9pp2026-10-01
4052448Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in September?22%0%+21.9pp2026-10-01
1366009Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2023%1%+21.6pp2026-10-05
1366007Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2036%57%-21.5pp2026-10-05
3865999Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?38%17%+21.0pp2027-01-01
2324607Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market 23%3%+20.2pp2027-01-01
3865962Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?38%18%+19.5pp2027-01-01
1366009Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2020%1%+19.2pp2026-10-05
5157091Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September?52%34%+18.5pp2026-10-01
3866013Will Hyperliquid dip to $65 by December 31, 2026?42%24%+18.5pp2027-01-01
3728736Will the Christian Democrats (KD) be in the next Swedish gov4%22%-18.5pp2027-02-01
4844455Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September?19%1%+18.4pp2026-10-01
3866009Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?34%16%+18.0pp2027-01-01
4052447Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in September?18%0%+17.9pp2026-10-01
3866512Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?18%0%+17.9pp2026-10-01
3865960Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?52%34%+17.5pp2027-01-01
3866012Will Hyperliquid reach $120 by December 31, 2026?40%22%+17.5pp2027-01-01
3072293Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 235%18%+17.5pp2027-01-01
2324609Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market 18%1%+17.1pp2027-01-01
2591183Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?18%1%+17.1pp2026-10-01
3517858Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 20220%3%+17.1pp2026-11-01
3866008Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?62%45%+17.0pp2027-01-01
3128888US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?12%28%-16.5pp2026-11-01
3728733Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish governmen39%22%+16.5pp2027-02-01
2299988Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?48%32%+16.0pp2027-01-05
3866007Will Hyperliquid reach $140 by December 31, 2026?32%16%+16.0pp2027-01-01
4215003Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?25%41%-16.0pp2027-03-31
4052431Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?16%0%+15.9pp2026-10-01
3866511Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?16%0%+15.9pp2026-10-01
3529066Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2018%34%-15.5pp2026-11-01
2299954Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?60%76%-15.5pp2027-01-05
4319439Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?76%60%+15.5pp2026-12-01
3515355Will Democrats win exactly 6 House seats in Ohio in the 202651%36%+15.0pp2026-11-04
676785OpenAI IPO before 2027?18%3%+14.8pp2027-01-01
4597026Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 317%2%+14.8pp2027-01-01
4052417Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?15%0%+14.6pp2026-10-01
1366008Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2029%14%+14.5pp2026-10-05
1339767Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?22%8%+14.5pp2027-01-01
2299952Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?8%22%-14.5pp2027-01-05
4906128US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?28%42%-14.5pp2026-12-01
3128886US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?45%59%-14.2pp2027-01-01
3251557Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?18%32%-14.0pp2026-10-30
4035901Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?14%0%+13.9pp2026-10-01
4052455Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in September?14%0%+13.9pp2026-10-01
676785OpenAI IPO before 2027?16%3%+13.8pp2027-01-01
4052448Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in September?14%0%+13.8pp2026-10-01
4052449Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September?14%0%+13.8pp2026-10-01
4689727Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?14%0%+13.7pp2026-10-01
701495Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?30%16%+13.5pp2027-01-01
701496Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?48%34%+13.5pp2027-01-01
3013350Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?28%14%+13.5pp2027-01-01
3866012Will Hyperliquid reach $120 by December 31, 2026?36%22%+13.5pp2027-01-01
2299990Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?78%92%-13.5pp2027-01-05
2299993Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?23%10%+13.5pp2027-01-05
2875119Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 20257%44%+13.5pp2027-01-01
3529061Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on October 31, 217%4%+13.0pp2026-10-31
701501Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?22%8%+13.0pp2027-01-01
2875121Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.50 (LOW) by December 31, 20212%25%-13.0pp2027-01-01
2109513Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?30%18%+12.5pp2027-01-01
3866013Will Hyperliquid dip to $65 by December 31, 2026?36%24%+12.5pp2027-01-01
3251556Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?46%58%-12.5pp2026-10-30
4890804Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?77%90%-12.5pp2027-01-01
1397281Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2033%21%+12.0pp2027-01-01
4035901Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?12%0%+11.9pp2026-10-01
4052457Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in September?12%0%+11.9pp2026-10-01
3515356Will Democrats win 7 or more House seats in Ohio in the 202616%28%-11.8pp2026-11-04
676787Rippling IPO before 2027?14%2%+11.8pp2027-01-01
2698814Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?22%34%-11.8pp2027-01-01
2412745Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at m14%3%+11.6pp2028-01-01
3866006Will Hyperliquid reach $150 by December 31, 2026?27%16%+11.5pp2027-01-01
2875119Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 20255%44%+11.5pp2027-01-01
3728735Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?7%18%-11.5pp2027-02-01
4052431Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?12%0%+11.4pp2026-10-01
4844455Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September?12%1%+11.4pp2026-10-01
3515355Will Democrats win exactly 6 House seats in Ohio in the 202647%36%+11.2pp2026-11-04
4052447Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in September?11%0%+10.7pp2026-10-01
2299953Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?42%52%-10.5pp2027-01-05
3529066Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2023%34%-10.5pp2026-11-01
3515356Will Democrats win 7 or more House seats in Ohio in the 202618%28%-10.5pp2026-11-04
2467206Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?60%50%+10.5pp2027-01-01
3866011Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026?58%48%+10.5pp2027-01-01
4215004Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?55%66%-10.5pp2027-06-30
2468323Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?22%12%+10.0pp2027-01-01
3728737Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government?57%67%-10.0pp2027-02-01
1321654ByteDance IPO before 2027?12%2%+9.8pp2027-01-01
3504054Will CDU win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?12%2%+9.8pp2026-09-20
1366008Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2024%14%+9.5pp2026-10-05
2299955Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?88%78%+9.5pp2027-01-05
3529064Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on Octob35%26%+9.5pp2026-10-31
701548Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?25%16%+9.5pp2027-01-01
3866010Will Hyperliquid reach $130 by December 31, 2026?27%18%+9.5pp2027-01-01
3748222Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?40%50%-9.5pp2027-01-01
1090496NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?14%24%-9.5pp2027-01-01
2299990Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?82%92%-9.5pp2027-01-05
676777Discord IPO before 2027?20%11%+9.4pp2027-01-01
3667936Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by Septemb10%1%+9.3pp2026-10-01
676789Remote IPO before 2027?12%3%+9.2pp2027-01-01
2299989Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?68%77%-9.0pp2027-01-05
2468324Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?16%7%+9.0pp2027-01-01
1366013Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil10%1%+8.8pp2026-10-05
2299986Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?15%6%+8.6pp2027-01-05
3517858Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 20212%3%+8.6pp2026-11-01
4319440Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?18%26%-8.5pp2026-11-16
676797Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?12%4%+8.5pp2027-01-01
701494Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?18%10%+8.5pp2027-01-01
3866011Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026?56%48%+8.5pp2027-01-01
653788OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?25%16%+8.5pp2027-01-01
1366011Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil17%25%-8.3pp2026-10-05
1321868Ledger IPO before 2027?10%2%+8.3pp2027-01-01
2698814Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?42%34%+8.2pp2027-01-01
677028Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?16%8%+8.2pp2027-01-01
3387867Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?16%8%+8.0pp2027-01-01
3072292Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 242%34%+8.0pp2027-01-01
676797Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?12%4%+8.0pp2027-01-01
4597026Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 310%2%+7.8pp2027-01-01
2109518Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?11%3%+7.7pp2027-01-01
4052417Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?8%0%+7.6pp2026-10-01
3399468Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?70%62%+7.5pp2026-12-31
2299954Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?68%76%-7.5pp2027-01-05
2412749Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at m16%24%-7.5pp2028-01-01
3902370Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?76%68%+7.5pp2026-11-30
3090816Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb10%3%+7.5pp2027-01-01
677027Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?28%21%+7.5pp2027-01-01
676793Glean IPO before 2027?8%1%+7.4pp2027-01-01
676784Anduril IPO before 2027?10%3%+7.4pp2027-01-01
2875123Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $3.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2025%12%-7.4pp2027-01-01
1831761Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 13%6%+7.3pp2027-01-01
1321868Ledger IPO before 2027?10%2%+7.3pp2027-01-01
676783Vanta IPO before 2027?10%2%+7.2pp2027-01-01
676789Remote IPO before 2027?10%3%+7.2pp2027-01-01
676787Rippling IPO before 2027?9%2%+7.2pp2027-01-01
1321867Epic Games IPO before 2027?9%2%+7.2pp2027-01-01
2109518Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?10%3%+7.2pp2027-01-01
1808754WHOOP IPO before 2027?8%2%+7.0pp2027-01-01
3387867Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?15%8%+7.0pp2027-01-01
3251555Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%?15%8%+7.0pp2026-10-30
3251557Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?39%32%+7.0pp2026-10-30
676790Mistral AI IPO before 2027?8%2%+6.8pp2027-01-01
2109516Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?8%1%+6.7pp2027-01-01
2299986Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?13%6%+6.6pp2027-01-05
3399459Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?85%78%+6.5pp2026-10-31
676792Anthropic IPO before 2027?75%82%-6.5pp2027-01-01
701501Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?15%8%+6.5pp2027-01-01
2412747Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at m26%20%+6.5pp2028-01-01
1345531Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?75%68%+6.5pp2027-01-01
5628282026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House56%62%-6.5pp2026-11-04
2412747Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at m26%20%+6.5pp2028-01-01
2109520Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?15%8%+6.5pp2027-01-01
665513Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 16%10%+6.5pp2027-01-01
3728735Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?12%18%-6.5pp2027-02-01
4890803Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?70%64%+6.5pp2027-01-01
676781Ramp IPO before 2027?8%2%+6.1pp2027-01-01
2412751Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at m8%2%+6.0pp2028-01-01
4319441Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?82%76%+6.0pp2026-12-16
676796Databricks IPO before 2027?9%3%+5.9pp2027-01-01
701502Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?10%5%+5.8pp2027-01-01
701502Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?10%5%+5.8pp2027-01-01
1193304Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.53%47%+5.8pp2027-02-01
2128397Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab19%25%-5.8pp2026-11-08
1321865Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?8%3%+5.5pp2027-01-01
2468324Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?12%7%+5.5pp2027-01-01
5628302026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House34%28%+5.5pp2026-11-04
3529065Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on Octob28%22%+5.5pp2026-11-01
3866000Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?34%28%+5.5pp2027-01-01
2698815Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?12%6%+5.5pp2027-01-01
1831769Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 41%36%+5.5pp2027-01-01
3090818Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb30%36%-5.5pp2029-01-01
2875120Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 20233%38%-5.5pp2027-01-01
3728732Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish govern2%7%-5.3pp2027-02-01
2412752Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market cl7%2%+5.3pp2028-01-01
2412750Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at m7%12%-5.3pp2028-01-01
2412748Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at m22%27%-5.2pp2028-01-01
701741Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?8%3%+5.0pp2027-01-01
2299989Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?82%77%+5.0pp2027-01-05
676779Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?8%2%+5.0pp2027-01-01
3866008Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?50%45%+5.0pp2027-01-01
3728737Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government?62%67%-5.0pp2027-02-01
701503Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?8%3%+5.0pp2027-01-01
676796Databricks IPO before 2027?8%3%+4.9pp2027-01-01
5628312026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House12%8%+4.9pp2026-11-04
2468325Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 by December 31, 2026?8%4%+4.8pp2027-01-01
2698813Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2049%54%-4.7pp2027-01-01
701554Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?8%3%+4.7pp2027-01-01
3529063Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on Octob16%11%+4.6pp2026-11-01
701552Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?11%6%+4.5pp2027-01-01
653788OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?12%16%-4.5pp2027-01-01
2006983US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?10%6%+4.5pp2027-01-01
676782Celonis IPO before 2027?10%6%+4.5pp2027-01-01
701495Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?21%16%+4.5pp2027-01-01
701553Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?9%4%+4.5pp2027-01-01
2109519Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?8%3%+4.5pp2027-01-01
2467206Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?54%50%+4.5pp2027-01-01
3529064Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on Octob30%26%+4.5pp2026-10-31
3399468Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?58%62%-4.5pp2026-12-31
701549Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?40%36%+4.5pp2027-01-01
3866010Will Hyperliquid reach $130 by December 31, 2026?22%18%+4.5pp2027-01-01
2413330Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?76%80%-4.5pp2027-01-01
3090817Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb17%12%+4.5pp2028-01-01
2413330Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?85%80%+4.5pp2027-01-01
3072294Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 216%12%+4.5pp2027-01-01
2875122Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 20214%18%-4.5pp2027-01-01
2299987Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?18%14%+4.5pp2027-01-05
2299992Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?18%14%+4.5pp2027-01-05
3728734Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?47%52%-4.5pp2027-02-01
4906127US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?16%12%+4.5pp2026-10-16
2757753US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?4%0%+4.5pp2026-10-01
677027Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?25%21%+4.5pp2027-01-01
2412746Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at m14%10%+4.3pp2028-01-01
1366010Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 204%0%+4.1pp2026-10-05
1339769Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?6%2%+4.0pp2027-01-01
701726Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?72%68%+4.0pp2027-01-01
2109514Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?12%8%+4.0pp2027-01-01
2299952Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?26%22%+4.0pp2027-01-05
2467356Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?70%66%+4.0pp2027-01-01
1339767Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?12%8%+4.0pp2027-01-01
2109514Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?12%8%+4.0pp2027-01-01
5628312026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House12%8%+4.0pp2026-11-04
2128408Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat42%46%-4.0pp2026-11-08
701726Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?72%68%+4.0pp2027-01-01
2591184Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?74%70%+4.0pp2027-01-01
4215005Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?86%90%-4.0pp2027-12-31
4838803Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October12%16%-4.0pp2026-10-16
676784Anduril IPO before 2027?7%3%+3.9pp2027-01-01
1339768Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?8%4%+3.9pp2027-01-01
2128397Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab21%25%-3.8pp2026-11-08
701552Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?10%6%+3.8pp2027-01-01
676798Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?7%3%+3.7pp2027-01-01
2307824Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?10%7%+3.6pp2027-01-05
3866004Will Hyperliquid dip to $75 by December 31, 2026?62%58%+3.6pp2027-01-01
1366012Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil6%2%+3.6pp2026-10-05
1321771Revolut IPO before 2027?6%2%+3.5pp2027-01-01
701496Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?38%34%+3.5pp2027-01-01
701547Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?11%8%+3.5pp2027-01-01
1345531Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?72%68%+3.5pp2027-01-01
1366007Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2061%57%+3.5pp2026-10-05
2468323Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?15%12%+3.5pp2027-01-01
3399459Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?75%78%-3.5pp2026-10-31
676792Anthropic IPO before 2027?85%82%+3.5pp2027-01-01
653788OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?20%16%+3.5pp2027-01-01
1831760Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 22%26%-3.5pp2027-01-01
4215005Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?86%90%-3.5pp2027-12-31
3090818Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb32%36%-3.5pp2029-01-01
2875122Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 20215%18%-3.5pp2027-01-01
2299987Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?17%14%+3.5pp2027-01-05
4906127US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?8%12%-3.5pp2026-10-16
2757753US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?4%0%+3.5pp2026-10-01
676799Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?8%4%+3.5pp2027-01-01
1366012Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil6%2%+3.4pp2026-10-05
2412746Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at m13%10%+3.2pp2028-01-01
677028Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?11%8%+3.1pp2027-01-01
5157395Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?18%21%-3.0pp2026-10-01
3667937Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October52%49%+3.0pp2026-11-01
2109525Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?8%4%+3.0pp2027-01-01
2128400Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab14%16%-3.0pp2026-11-08
2299956Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?88%91%-3.0pp2027-01-05
2467362Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?8%6%+3.0pp2027-01-01
701547Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?10%8%+3.0pp2027-01-01
2299988Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?29%32%-3.0pp2027-01-05
4319441Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?73%76%-3.0pp2026-12-16
2299993Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?12%10%+3.0pp2027-01-05
2299960Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?6%3%+2.9pp2027-01-05
677026Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?48%51%-2.6pp2027-01-01
3529063Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on Octob14%11%+2.6pp2026-11-01
2128413Will another result occur for the next governing coalition o4%7%-2.5pp2026-11-08
4366394Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October24%22%+2.5pp2026-10-16
5628282026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House65%62%+2.5pp2026-11-04
701494Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?12%10%+2.5pp2027-01-01
701548Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?18%16%+2.5pp2027-01-01
2109513Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?20%18%+2.5pp2027-01-01
2109520Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?11%8%+2.5pp2027-01-01
2128408Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat44%46%-2.5pp2026-11-08
3529065Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on Octob20%22%-2.5pp2026-11-01
3865962Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?21%18%+2.5pp2027-01-01
4118936Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?22%20%+2.5pp2026-10-15
3072293Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 220%18%+2.5pp2027-01-01
4319439Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?58%60%-2.5pp2026-12-01
3728733Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish governmen20%22%-2.5pp2027-02-01
3728736Will the Christian Democrats (KD) be in the next Swedish gov25%22%+2.5pp2027-02-01
3728738Will the Liberals (L) be in the next Swedish government?24%22%+2.5pp2027-02-01
3120760NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?14%12%+2.5pp2026-11-01
4906128US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?40%42%-2.5pp2026-12-01
2109523Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?6%3%+2.4pp2027-01-01
3728732Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish govern5%7%-2.4pp2027-02-01
3529062Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.25 on Octob5%7%-2.2pp2026-10-31
1321866Canva IPO before 2027?4%2%+2.2pp2027-01-01
3728731Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next 78%80%-2.2pp2027-02-01
2468459Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026?4%2%+2.1pp2027-01-01
2324611Will Oura not IPO before January 2027?87%85%+2.1pp2027-01-01
701504Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?3%1%+2.1pp2027-01-01
2468461Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026?3%1%+2.0pp2027-01-01
2109522Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?8%6%+2.0pp2027-01-01
2467356Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?68%66%+2.0pp2027-01-01
3866007Will Hyperliquid reach $140 by December 31, 2026?18%16%+2.0pp2027-01-01
4215003Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?43%41%+2.0pp2027-03-31
4906129US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?72%74%-2.0pp2027-04-01
676791Deel IPO before 2027?4%3%+1.9pp2027-01-01
2324610Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on I5%3%+1.9pp2027-01-01
3515354Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Ohio in the 202623%22%+1.9pp2026-11-04
2299961Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?6%4%+1.9pp2027-01-05
2307825Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?7%5%+1.9pp2027-01-05
2468460Will Ethereum dip to $600 by December 31, 2026?4%2%+1.9pp2027-01-01
1366013Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil3%1%+1.9pp2026-10-05
676778Stripe IPO before 2027?2%4%-1.8pp2027-01-01
701742Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?4%2%+1.8pp2027-01-01
2307824Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?8%7%+1.8pp2027-01-05
701493Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?4%6%-1.6pp2027-01-01
3866004Will Hyperliquid dip to $75 by December 31, 2026?60%58%+1.6pp2027-01-01
1343220Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?2%0%+1.6pp2027-01-01
1057916Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?2%1%+1.6pp2027-01-01
3515353Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Ohio in the 202610%8%+1.5pp2026-11-04
2299992Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?12%14%-1.5pp2027-01-05
5157091Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September?35%34%+1.5pp2026-10-01
2589812Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Octo64%66%-1.5pp2026-10-29
2589813Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Oct35%34%+1.5pp2026-10-29
2412749Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at m25%24%+1.5pp2028-01-01
2299955Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?80%78%+1.5pp2027-01-05
3515353Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Ohio in the 202610%8%+1.5pp2026-11-04
3866006Will Hyperliquid reach $150 by December 31, 2026?17%16%+1.5pp2027-01-01
3902370Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?67%68%-1.5pp2026-11-30
1193305Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 42%44%-1.5pp2027-02-01
4215004Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?64%66%-1.5pp2027-06-30
4118938Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?60%58%+1.5pp2026-11-30
2875120Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 20240%38%+1.5pp2027-01-01
3120760NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?10%12%-1.5pp2026-11-01
676777Discord IPO before 2027?12%11%+1.4pp2027-01-01
701546Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?4%5%-1.4pp2027-01-01
1366017Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilia1%0%+1.4pp2026-10-05
2412753Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?1%3%-1.4pp2028-01-01
1343219Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?3%2%+1.4pp2027-01-01
3515352Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Ohio in the 20263%2%+1.4pp2026-11-04
701743Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026?3%2%+1.4pp2027-01-01
3667936Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by Septemb2%1%+1.4pp2026-10-01
677026Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?52%51%+1.4pp2027-01-01
1366011Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil24%25%-1.3pp2026-10-05
701544Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026?2%4%-1.2pp2027-01-01
1343220Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?2%0%+1.2pp2027-01-01
3128886US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?58%59%-1.1pp2027-01-01
2324611Will Oura not IPO before January 2027?86%85%+1.1pp2027-01-01
701541Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?2%1%+1.1pp2027-01-01
2412744Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market cl5%4%+1.1pp2028-01-01
3081966Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 11%10%+1.0pp2026-10-30
2006983US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?6%6%+1.0pp2027-01-01
701486Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?2%1%+1.0pp2027-01-01
1057883Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?2%1%+1.0pp2027-01-01
2109524Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?12%10%+1.0pp2027-01-01
2128400Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab18%16%+1.0pp2026-11-08
3865999Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?18%17%+1.0pp2027-01-01
4118937Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?40%41%-1.0pp2026-10-31
1090496NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?24%24%+1.0pp2027-01-01
3072291Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 260%59%+1.0pp2027-01-01
3090816Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb2%3%-1.0pp2027-01-01
3529061Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on October 31, 25%4%+1.0pp2026-10-31
2299956Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?92%91%+1.0pp2027-01-05
4906129US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?75%74%+1.0pp2027-04-01
701488Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?2%1%+0.9pp2027-01-01
2324610Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on I4%3%+0.9pp2027-01-01
1366014Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian 1%0%+0.9pp2026-10-05
1321740Waymo IPO before 2027?3%2%+0.8pp2027-01-01
1343228Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?2%1%+0.8pp2027-01-01
701540Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026?2%1%+0.8pp2027-01-01
2412750Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at m12%12%-0.8pp2028-01-01
2109521Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?4%3%+0.8pp2027-01-01
2412748Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at m28%27%+0.8pp2028-01-01
701492Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?4%4%-0.7pp2027-01-01
1393068Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?1%0%+0.7pp2027-01-01
3504053Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?99%98%+0.7pp2026-09-20
2128401Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab2%1%+0.7pp2026-11-08
2128403Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab1%0%+0.6pp2026-11-08
701744Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026?3%2%+0.6pp2027-01-01
1393070Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?1%0%+0.6pp2027-01-01
2875123Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $3.50 (LOW) by December 31, 20213%12%+0.6pp2027-01-01
3081965Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?88%88%+0.5pp2026-10-30
4838804Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October44%44%-0.5pp2026-10-24
3128888US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?29%28%+0.5pp2026-11-01
5628302026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House28%28%-0.5pp2026-11-04
701549Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?36%36%+0.5pp2027-01-01
2109515Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?13%12%+0.5pp2027-01-01
2109524Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?11%10%+0.5pp2027-01-01
3013350Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?14%14%-0.5pp2027-01-01
3865960Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?34%34%-0.5pp2027-01-01
3090817Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb12%12%-0.5pp2028-01-01
3728738Will the Liberals (L) be in the next Swedish government?21%22%-0.5pp2027-02-01
4890803Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?64%64%+0.5pp2027-01-01
2128410Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat1%0%+0.5pp2026-11-08
701489Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?2%2%+0.5pp2027-01-01
701491Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?3%3%-0.5pp2027-01-01
2128398Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab1%1%-0.5pp2026-11-08
1366016Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 0%0%+0.4pp2026-10-05
2299962Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?2%2%+0.4pp2027-01-05
3128887US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?0%0%+0.3pp2026-10-01
701487Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?2%1%+0.3pp2027-01-01
1343228Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?1%1%+0.3pp2027-01-01
1366015Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Bra0%0%+0.3pp2026-10-05
676788Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?1%2%-0.3pp2027-01-01
2128406Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat1%1%+0.3pp2026-11-08
2128399Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab0%0%+0.3pp2026-11-08
4063373Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?0%0%+0.2pp2026-10-01
2128405Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat0%1%-0.2pp2026-11-08
676786Brex IPO before 2027?1%1%+0.2pp2027-01-01
3728731Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next 80%80%-0.2pp2027-02-01
2128412Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat1%1%-0.2pp2026-11-08
2128407Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat0%0%+0.2pp2026-11-08
701542Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026?2%3%-0.2pp2027-01-01
4052418Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?0%0%-0.1pp2026-10-01
4052418Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?0%0%+0.1pp2026-10-01
4063373Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?0%0%+0.1pp2026-10-01
4690431Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?0%0%+0.1pp2026-10-01
5628322026 Balance of Power: Other0%0%+0.1pp2026-11-04
701539Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?1%1%-0.1pp2027-01-01
1393068Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?1%0%+0.1pp2027-01-01
2128402Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab0%0%+0.1pp2026-11-08
2128404Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat0%0%+0.1pp2026-11-08
2128409Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat0%0%+0.1pp2026-11-08
2128411Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat0%0%+0.1pp2026-11-08
701490Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?3%3%+0.1pp2027-01-01
5628292026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House1%1%+0.1pp2026-11-04
3515351Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Ohio in the 20260%0%+0.1pp2026-11-04
701543Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026?2%3%-0.1pp2027-01-01
701545Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?4%4%-0.1pp2027-01-01
701487Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?1%1%+0.1pp2027-01-01
4690431Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?0%0%+0.1pp2026-10-01
3128887US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?0%0%+0.1pp2026-10-01
4052458Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in September?0%0%+0.1pp2026-10-01
701490Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?3%3%-0.1pp2027-01-01
2128396Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab0%0%+0.1pp2026-11-08
3515350Will Democrats win fewer than 2 House seats in Ohio in the 20%0%-0.1pp2026-11-04
4052458Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in September?0%0%-0.0pp2026-10-01
2355076US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?2%——2026-07-31
2109517Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?6%6%+0.0pp2027-01-01
3515354Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Ohio in the 202622%22%+0.0pp2026-11-04
2109515Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?12%12%+0.0pp2027-01-01
2006983US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?6%6%+0.0pp2027-01-01
2875121Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.50 (LOW) by December 31, 20225%25%+0.0pp2027-01-01
3072294Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 212%12%+0.0pp2027-01-01
3399458Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?98%——2026-09-30✓
3399458Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?98%——2026-09-30✓
3866477Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 97.00 in September?1%——2026-09-30✓
3866475Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 98.00 in September?36%——2026-09-30✓
3866474Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 98.50 in September?48%——2026-09-30✓
4063374Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in September?20%——2026-09-30✓
3866486Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?32%——2026-09-30✓
3866499Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in September?73%——2026-09-30✓
3866494Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in September?0%——2026-09-30✓
3866477Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 97.00 in September?0%——2026-09-30✓
3866475Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 98.00 in September?64%——2026-09-30✓
3866474Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 98.50 in September?88%——2026-09-30✓
3866494Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in September?0%——2026-09-30✓
3866499Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in September?48%——2026-09-30✓
3866486Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?30%——2026-09-30✓
4063374Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in September?20%——2026-09-30✓
3866493Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in September?17%——2026-09-30✓
3866498Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in September?30%——2026-09-30✓
3866506Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in September?9%——2026-09-30✓
3866493Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in September?19%——2026-09-30✓
3866498Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 in September?26%——2026-09-30✓
3866506Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in September?16%——2026-09-30✓
3866505Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in September?18%——2026-09-30✓
3866497Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $74 in September?18%——2026-09-30✓
3866492Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in September?32%——2026-09-30✓
3866505Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in September?13%——2026-09-30✓
3866497Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $74 in September?16%——2026-09-30✓
3866492Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in September?73%——2026-09-30✓
3866476Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 97.50 in September?43%——2026-09-30✓
3866485Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in September?20%——2026-09-30✓
3954334Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in September?8%——2026-09-30✓
3866504Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in September?38%——2026-09-30✓
3866476Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 97.50 in September?12%——2026-09-30✓
3866485Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in September?12%——2026-09-30✓
3954334Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in September?10%——2026-09-30✓
3866504Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in September?61%——2026-09-30✓
4442271Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in September?35%——2026-09-30✓
4442271Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in September?78%——2026-09-30✓
4472222Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 99.00 in September?74%——2026-09-30✓
4472224Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in September?20%——2026-09-30✓
3866496Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $76 in September?12%——2026-09-30✓
4472222Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 99.00 in September?19%——2026-09-30✓
4472224Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in September?22%——2026-09-30✓
3866496Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $76 in September?10%——2026-09-30✓
4591009Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 99.50 in September?54%——2026-09-30✓
4591009Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 99.50 in September?35%——2026-09-30✓
3866467Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 102.00 in September?24%——2026-09-30✓
3866467Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (HIGH) 102.00 in September?12%——2026-09-30✓
4641641Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 100.00 in September?82%——2026-09-30✓
4641641Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 100.00 in September?70%——2026-09-30✓
4884073Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 100.50 in September?32%——2026-09-30✓
4884073Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 100.50 in September?28%——2026-09-30✓
5083124Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 101.00 in September?18%——2026-09-30✓
5083125Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in September?68%——2026-09-30✓
5083126Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 in September?55%——2026-09-30✓
5083126Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 in September?50%——2026-09-30✓
5083125Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in September?62%——2026-09-30✓
5083124Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 101.00 in September?18%——2026-09-30✓