The FutureSim paper evaluates the agent against ground truth (Brier), not against market price. Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar — these three gates have to clear before paper becomes real.
| Gate | Current | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward-resolved marketsCounted only when the agent predicted a market while it was OPEN and then watched it resolve. Hindsight forecasts on already-closed markets (the RESULTS-SINCE-LAST-SESSION history bundled into every run) don't count. | 555 | ≥ 50 | PASS ✓ |
| Net paper PnL (after taker fees)Beating the market net of friction is a strictly harder bar than the paper's Brier-vs-truth evaluation. Fees use Polymarket's live per-category taker caps per 100 shares (geopolitics $0, politics/macro/AI $1.00, crypto $1.75) charged at entry — redemption at resolution is free. | $-644.81 over 98 closed | > $0 across ≥ 50 closed | NO |
| Calibration RMSEReported only once gate 1 passes — RMSE on fewer than 50 resolved predictions is noise. | 0.094 | < 0.10 | PASS ✓ |
❌ DO NOT BET real money — gates not yet cleared.
Gates pool across models by design — they measure the system (harness + evidence + watchlist + model), so a model swap carries the evidence forward instead of resetting. Forward-resolved by agent: minimalHarness_gpt-56-sol_001 (458), minimalHarness_gpt-56-sol_002 (250), minimalHarness_gpt-55_001 (98).
edges ≥ 5pp on markets with no fillable book — forecast and scored, but not traded
| Title | Agent | Market | Δ | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 1% | 97% | -96.2pp | 2026-09-20 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026? | 96% | 22% | +74.5pp | 2026-10-15 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026? | 82% | 10% | +71.5pp | 2026-10-24 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | 87% | 20% | +67.0pp | 2026-11-01 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | 63% | 2% | +61.4pp | 2026-11-01 |
| Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026? | 60% | 2% | +58.5pp | 2027-01-01 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | 56% | 2% | +54.4pp | 2026-11-01 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | 38% | 90% | -52.5pp | 2026-10-30 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | 96% | 46% | +51.0pp | 2026-10-31 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | 60% | 10% | +49.5pp | 2026-10-30 |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | 65% | 16% | +48.5pp | 2027-01-01 |
| Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026? | 1% | 44% | -42.9pp | 2027-01-01 |
No triggers today. Last tick blocked on: belief_stale 547, resolved 164, horizon_short 12, risk 6, edge_small 5, price_band 4.
| Strategy | Realized | At risk (unrealized) | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold to resolution | $-583.55 | $+176.65 | 41 |
| Trade the move | $+153.10 | $-19.50 | 76 |
| qid | title | side | entry→exit | days | exit | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3504053 | Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin stat | YES | 0.16→0.98 | 7 | converged | +$82.20 |
4884203 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in Septem | NO | 0.71→0.00 | 1 | resolved | $-71.00 |
3933484 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 in August? | YES | 0.63→0.00 | 1 | resolved | $-63.00 |
3866492 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in September | NO | 0.29→0.91 | 1 | converged | +$61.15 |
3847190 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in August? | YES | 0.37→1.00 | 1 | resolved | +$61.00 |
2510767 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 202 | NO | 0.58→0.00 | 10 | resolved | $-58.00 |
| qid | title | Agent | Market | Δ pp | Resolves | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3504053 | Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 1% | 97% | -96.2pp | 2026-09-20 | |
4118936 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026? | 96% | 22% | +74.5pp | 2026-10-15 | |
4838804 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October | 82% | 10% | +71.5pp | 2026-10-24 | |
3667937 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October | 87% | 20% | +67.0pp | 2026-11-01 | |
2421094 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | 63% | 2% | +61.4pp | 2026-11-01 | |
2698815 | Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026? | 60% | 2% | +58.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2421094 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | 56% | 2% | +54.4pp | 2026-11-01 | |
3081965 | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | 38% | 90% | -52.5pp | 2026-10-30 | |
4366394 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October | 60% | 8% | +52.5pp | 2026-10-16 | |
4319440 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | 73% | 22% | +51.0pp | 2026-11-16 | |
4118937 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | 96% | 46% | +51.0pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3081966 | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 | 60% | 10% | +49.5pp | 2026-10-30 | |
1831760 | Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December | 65% | 16% | +48.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2698813 | Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 20 | 1% | 44% | -42.9pp | 2027-01-01 | |
4838803 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October | 43% | 4% | +39.1pp | 2026-10-10 | |
1831761 | Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December | 45% | 6% | +38.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1831769 | Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December | 85% | 46% | +38.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3728734 | Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government? | 19% | 56% | -36.5pp | 2027-02-01 | |
3748222 | Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? | 18% | 54% | -36.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
4118938 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | 96% | 62% | +35.0pp | 2026-11-30 | |
1193305 | Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and | 78% | 44% | +34.5pp | 2027-02-01 | |
3504054 | Will CDU win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 36% | 2% | +34.2pp | 2026-09-20 | |
3072291 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2 | 90% | 56% | +33.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2698814 | Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026? | 22% | 55% | -33.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2589812 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Octo | 42% | 74% | -32.5pp | 2026-10-29 | |
2324608 | Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market | 36% | 4% | +32.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2589813 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Oct | 56% | 24% | +31.5pp | 2026-10-29 | |
3251555 | Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%? | 45% | 14% | +30.5pp | 2026-10-30 | |
3072292 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2 | 65% | 34% | +30.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2324608 | Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market | 32% | 4% | +28.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2591184 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | 97% | 70% | +27.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2324607 | Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market | 30% | 3% | +27.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1193304 | Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1. | 20% | 47% | -27.1pp | 2027-02-01 | |
3866000 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026? | 55% | 28% | +26.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299953 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | 22% | 48% | -26.0pp | 2027-01-05 | |
1397281 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 20 | 45% | 20% | +24.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2324609 | Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market | 25% | 1% | +24.4pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3251557 | Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%? | 18% | 42% | -24.0pp | 2026-10-30 | |
665513 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December | 32% | 8% | +23.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3865999 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? | 38% | 15% | +23.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866009 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? | 39% | 16% | +23.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366008 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 36% | 15% | +21.0pp | 2026-10-05 | |
2324607 | Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market | 23% | 3% | +20.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366009 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 23% | 2% | +20.2pp | 2026-10-05 | |
3728736 | Will the Christian Democrats (KD) be in the next Swedish gov | 4% | 24% | -20.0pp | 2027-02-01 | |
3072293 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2 | 35% | 16% | +19.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3865960 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | 52% | 34% | +18.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3728733 | Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish governmen | 39% | 20% | +18.5pp | 2027-02-01 | |
2299990 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? | 78% | 96% | -18.4pp | 2027-01-05 | |
677026 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? | 60% | 42% | +18.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3529064 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on Octob | 35% | 17% | +18.0pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3865962 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | 38% | 20% | +18.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866009 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? | 34% | 16% | +18.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866013 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $65 by December 31, 2026? | 42% | 24% | +18.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366009 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 20% | 2% | +17.9pp | 2026-10-05 | |
3517858 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 202 | 20% | 2% | +17.6pp | 2026-11-01 | |
3866007 | Will Hyperliquid reach $140 by December 31, 2026? | 32% | 14% | +17.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2875121 | Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.50 (LOW) by December 31, 202 | 12% | 30% | -17.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
4215003 | Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027? | 25% | 42% | -17.5pp | 2027-03-31 | |
2324609 | Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market | 18% | 1% | +17.4pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866008 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026? | 62% | 45% | +17.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3529066 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 20 | 18% | 34% | -16.5pp | 2026-11-01 | |
2299988 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | 48% | 32% | +16.5pp | 2027-01-05 | |
4366394 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October | 24% | 8% | +16.5pp | 2026-10-16 | |
1366007 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 42% | 57% | -15.5pp | 2026-10-05 | |
1339767 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | 22% | 6% | +15.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3515355 | Will Democrats win exactly 6 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 51% | 36% | +15.5pp | 2026-11-04 | |
2875120 | Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 202 | 33% | 48% | -15.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
677027 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? | 32% | 17% | +15.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
4597026 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 3 | 17% | 2% | +15.1pp | 2026-11-01 | |
2109513 | Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 30% | 15% | +15.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866006 | Will Hyperliquid reach $150 by December 31, 2026? | 27% | 12% | +15.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299993 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | 23% | 8% | +15.0pp | 2027-01-05 | |
676785 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | 18% | 3% | +14.6pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299952 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | 8% | 22% | -14.5pp | 2027-01-05 | |
2299990 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? | 82% | 96% | -14.4pp | 2027-01-05 | |
3866012 | Will Hyperliquid reach $120 by December 31, 2026? | 40% | 26% | +14.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3748222 | Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? | 40% | 54% | -14.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676785 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | 16% | 3% | +13.6pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366011 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil | 12% | 26% | -13.6pp | 2026-10-05 | |
701495 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | 30% | 16% | +13.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299954 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | 60% | 74% | -13.5pp | 2027-01-05 | |
3013350 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | 28% | 14% | +13.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3515356 | Will Democrats win 7 or more House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 16% | 30% | -13.3pp | 2026-11-04 | |
3529064 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on Octob | 30% | 17% | +13.0pp | 2026-10-31 | |
4215004 | Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027? | 55% | 68% | -13.0pp | 2027-06-30 | |
4890803 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027? | 80% | 68% | +12.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3529061 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on October 31, 2 | 17% | 4% | +12.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3128888 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 12% | 24% | -12.5pp | 2026-11-01 | |
2875119 | Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 202 | 57% | 45% | +12.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676777 | Discord IPO before 2027? | 20% | 8% | +12.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3515356 | Will Democrats win 7 or more House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 18% | 30% | -12.0pp | 2026-11-04 | |
701501 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | 22% | 10% | +12.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866013 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $65 by December 31, 2026? | 36% | 24% | +12.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3515355 | Will Democrats win exactly 6 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 47% | 36% | +11.7pp | 2026-11-04 | |
4319439 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | 82% | 70% | +11.5pp | 2026-12-01 | |
3529066 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 20 | 23% | 34% | -11.5pp | 2026-11-01 | |
701496 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | 48% | 36% | +11.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866011 | Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026? | 58% | 47% | +11.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3728737 | Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government? | 57% | 68% | -11.0pp | 2027-02-01 | |
2468324 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? | 16% | 6% | +10.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
4890804 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? | 77% | 88% | -10.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
4906128 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | 28% | 38% | -10.5pp | 2026-12-01 | |
2698815 | Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026? | 12% | 2% | +10.4pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2875119 | Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 202 | 55% | 45% | +10.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468323 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? | 22% | 12% | +10.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2412746 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at m | 14% | 4% | +10.0pp | 2028-01-01 | |
3866012 | Will Hyperliquid reach $120 by December 31, 2026? | 36% | 26% | +10.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3504054 | Will CDU win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 12% | 2% | +9.8pp | 2026-09-20 | |
1321654 | ByteDance IPO before 2027? | 12% | 2% | +9.7pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2412745 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at m | 14% | 5% | +9.7pp | 2028-01-01 | |
1366013 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil | 10% | 0% | +9.5pp | 2026-10-05 | |
2412747 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at m | 26% | 16% | +9.5pp | 2028-01-01 | |
701548 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | 25% | 16% | +9.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2412747 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at m | 26% | 16% | +9.5pp | 2028-01-01 | |
3866010 | Will Hyperliquid reach $130 by December 31, 2026? | 27% | 18% | +9.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3728735 | Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government? | 7% | 16% | -9.5pp | 2027-02-01 | |
677028 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? | 16% | 7% | +9.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128397 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 19% | 28% | -9.2pp | 2026-11-08 | |
3517858 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 202 | 12% | 2% | +9.1pp | 2026-11-01 | |
701726 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | 72% | 63% | +9.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467206 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? | 60% | 51% | +9.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701726 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | 72% | 63% | +9.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866011 | Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026? | 56% | 47% | +9.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2412746 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at m | 13% | 4% | +8.9pp | 2028-01-01 | |
2299986 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | 15% | 6% | +8.9pp | 2027-01-05 | |
676797 | Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? | 12% | 4% | +8.6pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3128886 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | 45% | 54% | -8.6pp | 2027-01-01 | |
4890804 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? | 96% | 88% | +8.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299955 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | 88% | 80% | +8.5pp | 2027-01-05 | |
3387867 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026? | 16% | 8% | +8.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701494 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | 18% | 10% | +8.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1090496 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | 14% | 22% | -8.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3251556 | Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%? | 35% | 44% | -8.5pp | 2026-10-30 | |
3090818 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb | 30% | 38% | -8.5pp | 2029-01-01 | |
2299989 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | 68% | 76% | -8.5pp | 2027-01-05 | |
2875120 | Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 202 | 40% | 48% | -8.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3728734 | Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government? | 47% | 56% | -8.5pp | 2027-02-01 | |
676783 | Vanta IPO before 2027? | 10% | 1% | +8.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676784 | Anduril IPO before 2027? | 10% | 2% | +8.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1321868 | Ledger IPO before 2027? | 10% | 2% | +8.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
677027 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? | 25% | 17% | +8.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
4838803 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October | 12% | 4% | +8.2pp | 2026-10-10 | |
4597026 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 3 | 10% | 2% | +8.1pp | 2026-11-01 | |
676789 | Remote IPO before 2027? | 12% | 4% | +8.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676797 | Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? | 12% | 4% | +8.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676787 | Rippling IPO before 2027? | 14% | 6% | +7.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3090816 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb | 10% | 3% | +7.7pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109518 | Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 11% | 3% | +7.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3399468 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 70% | 62% | +7.5pp | 2026-12-31 | |
3387867 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026? | 15% | 8% | +7.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
562828 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 56% | 64% | -7.5pp | 2026-11-04 | |
665513 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December | 16% | 8% | +7.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3072292 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2 | 42% | 34% | +7.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676793 | Glean IPO before 2027? | 8% | 1% | +7.4pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1321868 | Ledger IPO before 2027? | 10% | 2% | +7.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2875123 | Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $3.50 (LOW) by December 31, 202 | 5% | 12% | -7.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1321867 | Epic Games IPO before 2027? | 9% | 2% | +7.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128397 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 21% | 28% | -7.2pp | 2026-11-08 | |
1808754 | WHOOP IPO before 2027? | 8% | 1% | +7.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109518 | Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 10% | 3% | +7.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1831761 | Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December | 13% | 6% | +7.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
653788 | OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | 12% | 19% | -7.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468324 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 6% | +7.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3529063 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on Octob | 16% | 9% | +7.0pp | 2026-11-01 | |
2299986 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | 13% | 6% | +6.9pp | 2027-01-05 | |
2109516 | Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 1% | +6.7pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676790 | Mistral AI IPO before 2027? | 8% | 2% | +6.6pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2412748 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at m | 22% | 29% | -6.5pp | 2028-01-01 | |
676792 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | 88% | 82% | +6.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3399459 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 75% | 82% | -6.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
2109520 | Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 15% | 8% | +6.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3090818 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb | 32% | 38% | -6.5pp | 2029-01-01 | |
3728732 | Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish govern | 2% | 8% | -6.4pp | 2027-02-01 | |
676796 | Databricks IPO before 2027? | 9% | 3% | +6.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
677026 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? | 48% | 42% | +6.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2412751 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at m | 8% | 2% | +6.2pp | 2028-01-01 | |
676781 | Ramp IPO before 2027? | 8% | 2% | +6.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2413330 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | 88% | 82% | +6.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299953 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | 42% | 48% | -6.0pp | 2027-01-05 | |
676789 | Remote IPO before 2027? | 10% | 4% | +6.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
653788 | OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | 25% | 19% | +6.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3728737 | Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government? | 62% | 68% | -6.0pp | 2027-02-01 | |
701502 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 10% | 5% | +6.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701502 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 10% | 5% | +6.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1193304 | Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1. | 53% | 47% | +5.8pp | 2027-02-01 | |
3866004 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $75 by December 31, 2026? | 62% | 56% | +5.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1321865 | Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? | 8% | 3% | +5.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701501 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | 15% | 10% | +5.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299954 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | 68% | 74% | -5.5pp | 2027-01-05 | |
3529065 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on Octob | 20% | 26% | -5.5pp | 2026-11-01 | |
2412749 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at m | 16% | 22% | -5.5pp | 2028-01-01 | |
3866000 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026? | 34% | 28% | +5.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3902370 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 76% | 70% | +5.5pp | 2026-11-30 | |
4118937 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | 40% | 46% | -5.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
1831760 | Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December | 22% | 16% | +5.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299989 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | 82% | 76% | +5.5pp | 2027-01-05 | |
2412752 | Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market cl | 7% | 2% | +5.4pp | 2028-01-01 | |
676796 | Databricks IPO before 2027? | 8% | 3% | +5.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701503 | Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 2% | +5.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468325 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 3% | +5.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
4319441 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | 86% | 81% | +5.0pp | 2026-12-16 | |
701741 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 3% | +5.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109513 | Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 20% | 15% | +5.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299956 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | 88% | 93% | -5.0pp | 2027-01-05 | |
2467356 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026? | 70% | 65% | +5.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3529063 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on Octob | 14% | 9% | +5.0pp | 2026-11-01 | |
1339767 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 6% | +5.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866008 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026? | 50% | 45% | +5.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866006 | Will Hyperliquid reach $150 by December 31, 2026? | 17% | 12% | +5.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2591184 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | 74% | 70% | +5.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
4906127 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | 16% | 11% | +5.0pp | 2026-10-16 | |
562831 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 12% | 8% | +4.9pp | 2026-11-04 | |
2698813 | Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 20 | 39% | 44% | -4.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676782 | Celonis IPO before 2027? | 10% | 5% | +4.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676784 | Anduril IPO before 2027? | 7% | 2% | +4.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701554 | Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 3% | +4.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676779 | Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | 8% | 3% | +4.7pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701552 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | 11% | 6% | +4.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
4319439 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | 66% | 70% | -4.5pp | 2026-12-01 | |
2006983 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | 10% | 6% | +4.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3128888 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 29% | 24% | +4.5pp | 2026-11-01 | |
701495 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | 21% | 16% | +4.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701553 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | 9% | 4% | +4.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
562830 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 34% | 30% | +4.5pp | 2026-11-04 | |
3399468 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | 58% | 62% | -4.5pp | 2026-12-31 | |
701549 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | 40% | 36% | +4.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866010 | Will Hyperliquid reach $130 by December 31, 2026? | 22% | 18% | +4.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2875121 | Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.50 (LOW) by December 31, 202 | 25% | 30% | -4.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3090817 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb | 17% | 12% | +4.5pp | 2028-01-01 | |
3072294 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2 | 16% | 12% | +4.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299993 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | 12% | 8% | +4.5pp | 2027-01-05 | |
2299987 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | 18% | 14% | +4.5pp | 2027-01-05 | |
3728735 | Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government? | 12% | 16% | -4.5pp | 2027-02-01 | |
3128886 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | 58% | 54% | +4.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2412750 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at m | 7% | 11% | -4.5pp | 2028-01-01 | |
2109519 | Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 3% | +4.4pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1339768 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 3% | +4.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
677028 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? | 11% | 7% | +4.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1339769 | Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | 6% | 2% | +4.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676777 | Discord IPO before 2027? | 12% | 8% | +4.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366010 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 4% | 0% | +4.2pp | 2026-10-05 | |
676799 | Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? | 8% | 3% | +4.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109514 | Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 8% | +4.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299952 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | 26% | 22% | +4.0pp | 2027-01-05 | |
2109514 | Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 8% | +4.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
562831 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 12% | 8% | +4.0pp | 2026-11-04 | |
3072293 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2 | 20% | 16% | +4.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
4215004 | Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027? | 64% | 68% | -4.0pp | 2027-06-30 | |
4215005 | Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027? | 86% | 90% | -4.0pp | 2027-12-31 | |
4319440 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | 18% | 22% | -4.0pp | 2026-11-16 | |
2324611 | Will Oura not IPO before January 2027? | 87% | 83% | +4.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2698814 | Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026? | 59% | 55% | +3.9pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866004 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $75 by December 31, 2026? | 60% | 56% | +3.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701552 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | 10% | 6% | +3.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366012 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil | 6% | 2% | +3.8pp | 2026-10-05 | |
676798 | Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? | 7% | 3% | +3.7pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2307824 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | 10% | 7% | +3.6pp | 2027-01-05 | |
1321771 | Revolut IPO before 2027? | 6% | 2% | +3.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366012 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil | 6% | 2% | +3.5pp | 2026-10-05 | |
3399459 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 85% | 82% | +3.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
701547 | Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? | 11% | 8% | +3.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2412749 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at m | 25% | 22% | +3.5pp | 2028-01-01 | |
2468323 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? | 15% | 12% | +3.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3866007 | Will Hyperliquid reach $140 by December 31, 2026? | 18% | 14% | +3.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3902370 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | 67% | 70% | -3.5pp | 2026-11-30 | |
3072291 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2 | 60% | 56% | +3.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
4215005 | Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027? | 86% | 90% | -3.5pp | 2027-12-31 | |
2299987 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | 17% | 14% | +3.5pp | 2027-01-05 | |
2299992 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | 18% | 14% | +3.5pp | 2027-01-05 | |
4890803 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027? | 64% | 68% | -3.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
4906129 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | 75% | 72% | +3.5pp | 2027-04-01 | |
3529062 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.25 on Octob | 5% | 8% | -3.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
3728732 | Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish govern | 5% | 8% | -3.4pp | 2027-02-01 | |
676787 | Rippling IPO before 2027? | 9% | 6% | +3.4pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366008 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 18% | 15% | +3.0pp | 2026-10-05 | |
4319441 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | 78% | 81% | -3.0pp | 2026-12-16 | |
2109525 | Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 4% | +3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128400 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 14% | 16% | -3.0pp | 2026-11-08 | |
2467206 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? | 54% | 51% | +3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467362 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 6% | +3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1345531 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | 75% | 72% | +3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2467356 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026? | 68% | 65% | +3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701547 | Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? | 10% | 8% | +3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3865999 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? | 18% | 15% | +3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3251557 | Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%? | 39% | 42% | -3.0pp | 2026-10-30 | |
4906127 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | 8% | 11% | -3.0pp | 2026-10-16 | |
2324611 | Will Oura not IPO before January 2027? | 86% | 83% | +3.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1321866 | Canva IPO before 2027? | 4% | 2% | +2.9pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299960 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | 6% | 3% | +2.9pp | 2027-01-05 | |
1366011 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil | 23% | 26% | -2.5pp | 2026-10-05 | |
1397281 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 20 | 23% | 20% | +2.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701494 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 10% | +2.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701548 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | 18% | 16% | +2.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109520 | Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 11% | 8% | +2.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3529065 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on Octob | 28% | 26% | +2.5pp | 2026-11-01 | |
3251556 | Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%? | 46% | 44% | +2.5pp | 2026-10-30 | |
2299988 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | 29% | 32% | -2.5pp | 2027-01-05 | |
3081965 | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | 88% | 90% | -2.5pp | 2026-10-30 | |
1366013 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazil | 3% | 0% | +2.5pp | 2026-10-05 | |
2299992 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | 12% | 14% | -2.5pp | 2027-01-05 | |
3728738 | Will the Liberals (L) be in the next Swedish government? | 24% | 22% | +2.5pp | 2027-02-01 | |
3120760 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | 14% | 12% | +2.5pp | 2026-11-01 | |
676791 | Deel IPO before 2027? | 4% | 2% | +2.4pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109523 | Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 6% | 3% | +2.4pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701504 | Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 1% | +2.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2307825 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | 7% | 5% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-05 | |
2468459 | Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 2% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2413330 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | 80% | 82% | -2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109522 | Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 8% | 6% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128408 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 42% | 44% | -2.0pp | 2026-11-08 | |
1090496 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | 24% | 22% | +2.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2299961 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? | 6% | 4% | +1.9pp | 2027-01-05 | |
2468460 | Will Ethereum dip to $600 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 2% | +1.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3504053 | Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | 99% | 97% | +1.8pp | 2026-09-20 | |
2128413 | Will another result occur for the next governing coalition o | 4% | 6% | -1.8pp | 2026-11-08 | |
701742 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 2% | +1.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2307824 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | 8% | 7% | +1.8pp | 2027-01-05 | |
1343220 | Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 0% | +1.6pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3728731 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next | 80% | 78% | +1.6pp | 2027-02-01 | |
3515353 | Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 10% | 8% | +1.5pp | 2026-11-04 | |
1831769 | Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December | 45% | 46% | -1.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676792 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | 80% | 82% | -1.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
562828 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 65% | 64% | +1.5pp | 2026-11-04 | |
562830 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 28% | 30% | -1.5pp | 2026-11-04 | |
701496 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | 38% | 36% | +1.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1057916 | Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 1% | +1.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3515353 | Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 10% | 8% | +1.5pp | 2026-11-04 | |
1193305 | Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and | 42% | 44% | -1.5pp | 2027-02-01 | |
4118938 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | 60% | 62% | -1.5pp | 2026-11-30 | |
3120760 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | 10% | 12% | -1.5pp | 2026-11-01 | |
4906128 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | 40% | 38% | +1.5pp | 2026-12-01 | |
1366017 | Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilia | 1% | 0% | +1.4pp | 2026-10-05 | |
1343219 | Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 2% | +1.4pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3515354 | Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 23% | 22% | +1.4pp | 2026-11-04 | |
3515352 | Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 3% | 2% | +1.3pp | 2026-11-04 | |
2412744 | Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market cl | 5% | 4% | +1.2pp | 2028-01-01 | |
701743 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 2% | +1.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2468461 | Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 2% | +1.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701546 | Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 5% | -1.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1343220 | Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 0% | +1.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701493 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 5% | -1.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701744 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 2% | +1.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701544 | Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 4% | -1.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3667937 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October | 21% | 20% | +1.0pp | 2026-11-01 | |
2006983 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | 6% | 6% | +1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676778 | Stripe IPO before 2027? | 2% | 3% | -1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701486 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 1% | +1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109524 | Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 10% | +1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128400 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 18% | 16% | +1.0pp | 2026-11-08 | |
3865962 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | 21% | 20% | +1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
653788 | OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | 20% | 19% | +1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2875122 | Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 202 | 14% | 15% | -1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3728736 | Will the Christian Democrats (KD) be in the next Swedish gov | 25% | 24% | +1.0pp | 2027-02-01 | |
2299956 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | 92% | 93% | -1.0pp | 2027-01-05 | |
701541 | Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 1% | +1.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2324610 | Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on I | 4% | 5% | -0.9pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701488 | Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 1% | +0.9pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1057883 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 1% | +0.9pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366014 | Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian | 1% | 0% | +0.9pp | 2026-10-05 | |
1321740 | Waymo IPO before 2027? | 3% | 2% | +0.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1343228 | Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 1% | +0.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701540 | Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 1% | +0.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3090816 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb | 2% | 3% | -0.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2875123 | Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $3.50 (LOW) by December 31, 202 | 13% | 12% | +0.8pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2412753 | Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? | 1% | 2% | -0.7pp | 2028-01-01 | |
2128401 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 2% | 1% | +0.7pp | 2026-11-08 | |
2109521 | Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 3% | +0.7pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1393068 | Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1% | 0% | +0.7pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1393070 | Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1% | 0% | +0.6pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128403 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 1% | 0% | +0.6pp | 2026-11-08 | |
2412748 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at m | 28% | 29% | -0.6pp | 2028-01-01 | |
562829 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | 1% | 1% | +0.5pp | 2026-11-04 | |
1366007 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20 | 58% | 57% | +0.5pp | 2026-10-05 | |
4838804 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October | 11% | 10% | +0.5pp | 2026-10-24 | |
2589812 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Octo | 74% | 74% | -0.5pp | 2026-10-29 | |
2589813 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Oct | 25% | 24% | +0.5pp | 2026-10-29 | |
701489 | Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701549 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | 36% | 36% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109515 | Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 13% | 12% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109524 | Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 11% | 10% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128408 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 44% | 44% | -0.5pp | 2026-11-08 | |
3013350 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | 14% | 14% | -0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3515354 | Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 22% | 22% | -0.5pp | 2026-11-04 | |
2299955 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | 80% | 80% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-05 | |
3865960 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | 34% | 34% | +0.5pp | 2027-01-01 | |
4118936 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026? | 22% | 22% | +0.5pp | 2026-10-15 | |
3251555 | Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.7% and 0.9%? | 15% | 14% | +0.5pp | 2026-10-30 | |
4215003 | Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027? | 43% | 42% | +0.5pp | 2027-03-31 | |
3090817 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by Decemb | 12% | 12% | -0.5pp | 2028-01-01 | |
3081966 | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 | 11% | 10% | +0.5pp | 2026-10-30 | |
3728733 | Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish governmen | 20% | 20% | -0.5pp | 2027-02-01 | |
3728738 | Will the Liberals (L) be in the next Swedish government? | 21% | 22% | -0.5pp | 2027-02-01 | |
3529061 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on October 31, 2 | 5% | 4% | +0.5pp | 2026-10-31 | |
4906129 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | 72% | 72% | +0.5pp | 2027-04-01 | |
2128410 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 1% | 0% | +0.5pp | 2026-11-08 | |
3728731 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next | 78% | 78% | -0.5pp | 2027-02-01 | |
1366016 | Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the | 0% | 0% | +0.4pp | 2026-10-05 | |
2299962 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? | 2% | 2% | +0.4pp | 2027-01-05 | |
701487 | Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 1% | +0.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1343228 | Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1% | 1% | +0.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1366015 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Bra | 0% | 0% | +0.3pp | 2026-10-05 | |
701491 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 3% | -0.3pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128399 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 0% | 0% | +0.3pp | 2026-11-08 | |
2128405 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 0% | 1% | -0.2pp | 2026-11-08 | |
2128406 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 1% | 1% | +0.2pp | 2026-11-08 | |
701542 | Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 3% | -0.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701543 | Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? | 2% | 3% | -0.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
676786 | Brex IPO before 2027? | 1% | 1% | +0.2pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128398 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 1% | 1% | -0.2pp | 2026-11-08 | |
2128407 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 0% | 0% | +0.2pp | 2026-11-08 | |
562832 | 2026 Balance of Power: Other | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-04 | |
2128402 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-08 | |
2128404 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-08 | |
2128409 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-08 | |
2128411 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-08 | |
701490 | Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 3% | +0.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128412 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Nat | 1% | 1% | -0.1pp | 2026-11-08 | |
3515351 | Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-04 | |
701492 | Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 4% | -0.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1393068 | Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701487 | Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1% | 1% | +0.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701490 | Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3% | 3% | -0.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701539 | Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1% | 1% | -0.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2128396 | Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Lab | 0% | 0% | +0.1pp | 2026-11-08 | |
2412750 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at m | 12% | 11% | +0.1pp | 2028-01-01 | |
3515350 | Will Democrats win fewer than 2 House seats in Ohio in the 2 | 0% | 0% | -0.1pp | 2026-11-04 | |
2324610 | Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on I | 5% | 5% | +0.1pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2355076 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? | 2% | — | — | 2026-07-31 | |
676788 | Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? | 1% | 1% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
701545 | Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | 4% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
1345531 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | 72% | 72% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109517 | Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2109515 | Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 12% | 12% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2006983 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | 6% | 6% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
3072294 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2 | 12% | 12% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2875122 | Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 202 | 15% | 15% | +0.0pp | 2027-01-01 | |
2757753 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? | 4% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
2757753 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? | 4% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
3128887 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | 0% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
2109512 | Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 34% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
3128887 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | 0% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
2109512 | Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | 21% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
2591183 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 18% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052458 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in September? | 0% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052447 | Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in September? | 11% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
3866515 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September? | 24% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
3667936 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by Septemb | 10% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
2591183 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | 95% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
3667936 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by Septemb | 2% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
3866515 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September? | 25% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052458 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in September? | 0% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052447 | Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in September? | 18% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052425 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September? | 42% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052456 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in September? | 30% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4063373 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September? | 0% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052456 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in September? | 24% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4063373 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September? | 0% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052425 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September? | 38% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052427 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September? | 29% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4035901 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? | 12% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4218280 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in September? | 43% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052427 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September? | 24% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4035901 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? | 14% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4218280 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in September? | 27% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052431 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September? | 16% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052448 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in September? | 22% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
3866511 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September? | 24% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
3866511 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September? | 16% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052431 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September? | 12% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052448 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in September? | 14% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
3866512 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | 24% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052449 | Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September? | 40% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052457 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in September? | 43% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
3866512 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | 18% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052449 | Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September? | 14% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052457 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in September? | 12% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052418 | Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September? | 0% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052418 | Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September? | 0% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4618778 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? | 48% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052455 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in September? | 47% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052455 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in September? | 14% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4618778 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? | 43% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4617905 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September? | 64% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052417 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? | 8% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4617905 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September? | 22% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4052417 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? | 15% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4689727 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September? | 32% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4689728 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September? | 87% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4689737 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 in September? | 76% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4690431 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? | 0% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4689727 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September? | 14% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4689728 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September? | 42% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4689737 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 in September? | 56% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4690431 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? | 0% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4761842 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September? | 25% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4761842 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September? | 25% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4797724 | Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September? | 52% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4797724 | Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September? | 50% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4844455 | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September? | 19% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
4844455 | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September? | 12% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
5157395 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September? | 99% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
5157091 | Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September? | 52% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
5157395 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September? | 18% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |
5157091 | Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September? | 35% | — | — | 2026-10-01 | ✓ |