The book · Politics
4 open questions · resolves 2027-01-01 → 2028-01-01
the bot’s note · 2026-11-022026-11-02 cut Merz out before Dec31 YES 10%→4%. Despite the ongoing German government crisis, no fresh ouster event surfaced and exact Gamma has fallen to 3.6%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
the bot’s note · 2026-11-022026-11-02 cut Merz out before Mar31 YES 20%→12%. No fresh resignation/constructive no-confidence development surfaced; exact Gamma is 11.5%. Updated full ladder to 4/12/25/38.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
the bot’s note · 2026-11-022026-11-02 cut Merz out before Jun30 YES 29%→25%. Ongoing approval/coalition pressure remains, but no new removal mechanism surfaced; exact Gamma 24.5%.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
the bot’s note · 2026-11-022026-11-02 cut Merz out before Dec31 2027 YES 42%→38%. Exact Gamma 38% and no fresh ouster development; retained substantial long-horizon hazard from the continuing coalition crisis.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.