Standing Book2026-11-04
·

An AI forecaster’s open record against Polymarket

Behind the market

Every day the bot reads the news and states a probability for 257 open questions. When a question settles, the bot’s number and the market’s price from the last day the market was open are both scored against what actually happened.

Closer to the truth than the market

16 / 98

settled events, a ladder counts once

Paper money, after fees

−$621

117 settled trades · +$83 open

Calibration

±8pp

well calibrated

Questions settled

585

93 won · 248 lost · 244 tied

Since reset · 2026-09-08218 settled · closer than the market in 3/40 events · score 0.107 vs 0.051 · calibration ±10pp · weight vs the price 0.00 · paper −$229 (49 trades)

Money

Does it make money?

100-share paper positions, opened only on a ≥5pp disagreement in a tradable book
−$1,000−$500$005-2606-2908-2710-0111-04
incl. open positions settled, after fees

Real money not yet

  • Enough settled questions · 610 / ≥ 50PASS
  • Paper profit after fees · $-620.76 over 117 closed / > $0 across ≥ 50 closedNOT YET
  • Honest percentages · 0.084 / < 0.10PASS

Real orders start only after all three gates pass; first with a $25 mechanics test.

Execution loop: shadow — logs the orders it would place, places none · 12 open intents · $22 deployed

Latest settled

  • 2026-11-03Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?97% vs 100% → YEStie
  • 2026-11-03Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026?98% vs 97% → YEStie
  • 2026-11-03Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026?2% vs 4% → NOtie
  • 2026-11-02Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?10% vs 0% → NOmarket closer
  • 2026-11-02Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?3% vs 1% → NOtie
  • 2026-11-02Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026?3% vs 2% → NOtie

Full record →

The book

What it believes right now

bot   market  · Δ = bot − market

PoliticsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms

5 questions · 2026-11-04 · 1 paper position
  • 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Housepaper NOresolves 2026-11-04 · 0d · updated 40d ago
    99%
    65%
    -34pp
  • 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D Houseresolves 2026-11-04 · 0d · updated 40d ago
    0%
    28%
    +28pp
  • 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R Houseresolves 2026-11-04 · 0d · updated 2d ago
    0%
    6%
    +5pp
  • 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R Houseresolves 2026-11-04 · 0d · updated 82d ago
    0%
    1%
    +1pp
  • 2026 Balance of Power: Otherresolves 2026-11-04 · 0d · updated 82d ago
    0%
    0%
    +0pp

EconomyOura IPO Closing Market Cap

5 questions · 2027-01-01 · 1 paper position
  • Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 40d ago
    0%
    32%
    +32pp
  • Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 55d ago
    0%
    25%
    +25pp
  • Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 40d ago
    0%
    23%
    +23pp
  • Will Oura not IPO before January 2027?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 35d ago
    96%
    87%
    -9pp
  • Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?paper YESresolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 35d ago
    1%
    5%
    +4pp

AIWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31

9 questions · 2027-01-05 · 1 paper position
  • Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?resolves 2027-01-05 · 62d · updated 18d ago
    35%
    8%
    -27pp
  • Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.3T by December 31?resolves 2027-01-05 · 62d · updated 10d ago
    46%
    73%
    +26pp
  • Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.45T by December 31?resolves 2027-01-05 · 62d · updated 10d ago
    48%
    23%
    -25pp
  • Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?resolves 2027-01-05 · 62d · updated 55d ago
    33%
    12%
    -20pp
  • Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?resolves 2027-01-05 · 62d · updated 49d ago
    3%
    18%
    +15pp
  • Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.4T by December 31?resolves 2027-01-05 · 62d · updated 3d ago
    21%
    31%
    +10pp

EconomyIPOs before 2027

29 questions · 2027-01-01 · 1 paper position
  • Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 82d ago
    32%
    8%
    -24pp
  • OpenAI IPO before 2027?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 82d ago
    3%
    16%
    +14pp
  • Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 82d ago
    4%
    12%
    +9pp
  • ByteDance IPO before 2027?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 82d ago
    3%
    12%
    +9pp
  • Rippling IPO before 2027?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 82d ago
    5%
    14%
    +9pp
  • Remote IPO before 2027?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 82d ago
    4%
    12%
    +8pp

CryptoWhat price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026

16 questions · 2027-01-01 · 2 paper position
  • Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 5d ago
    22%
    45%
    +24pp
  • Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?paper NOresolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 5d ago
    45%
    65%
    +20pp
  • Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 5d ago
    38%
    24%
    -14pp
  • Will Hyperliquid reach $120 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 5d ago
    12%
    25%
    +12pp
  • Will Hyperliquid reach $130 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 5d ago
    6%
    15%
    +9pp
  • Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 61d ago
    5%
    12%
    +8pp

AIHighest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026

6 questions · 2027-01-01 · 2 paper position
  • Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 5d ago
    90%
    70%
    -20pp
  • Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?paper YESresolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 5d ago
    64%
    50%
    -14pp
  • Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 23d ago
    6%
    12%
    +6pp
  • Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 7d ago
    26%
    22%
    -4pp
  • Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 8d ago
    5%
    8%
    +3pp
  • Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?paper YESresolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 7d ago
    10%
    10%
    0pp

WorldNATO x Russia military clash by

3 questions · 2026-11-16 → 2027-01-01 · 2 paper position
  • NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?resolves 2026-11-16 · 12d · updated 12d ago
    2%
    21%
    +19pp
  • NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?paper YESresolves 2026-12-01 · 27d · updated 2d ago
    6%
    6%
    +0pp
  • NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?paper NOresolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 2d ago
    14%
    14%
    -0pp

AINext Google Gemini Pro Model released by

2 questions · 2026-12-01 → 2027-01-01
  • Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 4d ago
    34%
    17%
    -17pp
  • Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by November 30, 2026?resolves 2026-12-01 · 27d · updated 4d ago
    11%
    12%
    +1pp

WorldRussia x Ukraine peace talks by

2 questions · 2026-12-01 → 2027-01-01 · 1 paper position
  • Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?resolves 2026-12-01 · 27d · updated 2d ago
    86%
    70%
    -16pp
  • Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?paper YESresolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 2d ago
    90%
    76%
    -14pp

WorldIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through

11 questions · 2026-11-03 → 2026-12-31 · 1 paper position
  • Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?resolves 2026-11-04 · 0d · updated 6d ago
    99%
    84%
    -15pp
  • Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?resolves 2026-11-03 · due · updated 6d ago
    99%
    87%
    -12pp
  • Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?resolves 2026-11-16 · 12d · updated 2d ago
    56%
    67%
    +12pp
  • Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?paper YESresolves 2026-11-30 · 26d · updated 2d ago
    42%
    53%
    +10pp
  • Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?resolves 2026-11-23 · 19d · updated 2d ago
    50%
    60%
    +10pp
  • Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?resolves 2026-12-16 · 42d · updated 2d ago
    33%
    41%
    +8pp

AIWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31

14 questions · 2027-01-01 · 2 paper position
  • Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?paper YESresolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 20d ago
    44%
    55%
    +12pp
  • Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 59d ago
    4%
    12%
    +8pp
  • Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 82d ago
    3%
    10%
    +8pp
  • Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 82d ago
    6%
    13%
    +7pp
  • Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 59d ago
    4%
    11%
    +7pp
  • Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 82d ago
    2%
    8%
    +6pp

PoliticsHow many House seats will the Democrats win in Ohio

7 questions · 2026-11-04 · 1 paper position
  • Will Democrats win 7 or more House seats in Ohio in the 2026 midterm elections?paper NOresolves 2026-11-04 · 0d · updated 2d ago
    59%
    48%
    -11pp
  • Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 midterm elections?resolves 2026-11-04 · 0d · updated 74d ago
    1%
    10%
    +9pp
  • Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 midterm elections?resolves 2026-11-04 · 0d · updated 2d ago
    18%
    11%
    -6pp
  • Will Democrats win exactly 6 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 midterm elections?resolves 2026-11-04 · 0d · updated 2d ago
    42%
    38%
    -4pp
  • Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 midterm elections?resolves 2026-11-04 · 0d · updated 74d ago
    0%
    3%
    +3pp
  • Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 midterm elections?resolves 2026-11-04 · 0d · updated 74d ago
    0%
    0%
    +0pp

AIAnthropic IPO by __

12 questions · 2026-11-16 → 2027-01-01 · 2 paper position
  • Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?resolves 2026-11-20 · 16d · updated 2d ago
    55%
    44%
    -11pp
  • Will Anthropic IPO by November 23, 2026?resolves 2026-11-24 · 20d · updated 2d ago
    73%
    67%
    -6pp
  • Will Anthropic IPO by November 24, 2026?resolves 2026-11-25 · 21d · updated 2d ago
    80%
    74%
    -6pp
  • Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?resolves 2026-11-17 · 13d · updated 8d ago
    9%
    13%
    +4pp
  • Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?resolves 2026-11-19 · 15d · updated 2d ago
    28%
    25%
    -4pp
  • Will Anthropic IPO by November 17, 2026?resolves 2026-11-18 · 14d · updated 2d ago
    10%
    13%
    +2pp

EconomyEurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

2 questions · 2027-02-01 · 1 paper position
  • Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?resolves 2027-02-01 · 89d · updated 4d ago
    63%
    73%
    +10pp
  • Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?paper NOresolves 2027-02-01 · 89d · updated 4d ago
    32%
    25%
    -7pp

PoliticsWhich parties will be in next Swedish Government

8 questions · 2027-02-01 · 2 paper position
  • Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?resolves 2027-02-01 · 89d · updated 17d ago
    50%
    40%
    -10pp
  • Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?paper NOresolves 2027-02-01 · 89d · updated 21d ago
    12%
    5%
    -7pp
  • Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?resolves 2027-02-01 · 89d · updated 17d ago
    67%
    74%
    +7pp
  • Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government?resolves 2027-02-01 · 89d · updated 17d ago
    60%
    65%
    +4pp
  • Will the Liberals (L) be in the next Swedish government?resolves 2027-02-01 · 89d · updated 21d ago
    18%
    16%
    -2pp
  • Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish government?resolves 2027-02-01 · 89d · updated 17d ago
    22%
    20%
    -2pp

AIAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

10 questions · 2028-01-01 · 2 paper position
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?resolves 2028-01-01 · 423d · updated 20d ago
    18%
    28%
    +10pp
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?resolves 2028-01-01 · 423d · updated 20d ago
    6%
    15%
    +10pp
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?resolves 2028-01-01 · 423d · updated 20d ago
    23%
    16%
    -7pp
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?resolves 2028-01-01 · 423d · updated 81d ago
    1%
    8%
    +7pp
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?resolves 2028-01-01 · 423d · updated 82d ago
    1%
    7%
    +6pp
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?resolves 2028-01-01 · 423d · updated 82d ago
    11%
    5%
    -6pp

CryptoWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026

30 questions · 2027-01-01 · 2 paper position
  • Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 41d ago
    3%
    12%
    +9pp
  • Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 21d ago
    4%
    12%
    +8pp
  • Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 5d ago
    26%
    33%
    +6pp
  • Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 75d ago
    4%
    10%
    +6pp
  • Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 82d ago
    2%
    8%
    +5pp
  • Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?paper YESresolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 5d ago
    26%
    31%
    +4pp

AIGPU rental prices (B200) hit___ in 2026

5 questions · 2027-01-01 · 2 paper position
  • Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 5d ago
    38%
    29%
    -9pp
  • Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $3.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 10d ago
    11%
    7%
    -4pp
  • Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?paper NOresolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 5d ago
    14%
    18%
    +4pp
  • Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 5d ago
    12%
    15%
    +4pp
  • Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?paper NOresolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 5d ago
    22%
    23%
    +0pp

PoliticsWhich coalition will form the next New Zealand government

18 questions · 2026-11-08 · 2 paper position
  • Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?paper NOresolves 2026-11-08 · 4d · updated 3d ago
    47%
    56%
    +9pp
  • Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?resolves 2026-11-08 · 4d · updated 3d ago
    18%
    15%
    -3pp
  • Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?paper YESresolves 2026-11-08 · 4d · updated 3d ago
    26%
    27%
    +2pp
  • Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + NZF?resolves 2026-11-08 · 4d · updated 82d ago
    1%
    2%
    +1pp
  • Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori + NZF?resolves 2026-11-08 · 4d · updated 82d ago
    0%
    1%
    +1pp
  • Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + NZF + Maori?resolves 2026-11-08 · 4d · updated 82d ago
    0%
    1%
    +1pp

CryptoWhat price will Ethereum hit in 2026

21 questions · 2027-01-01 · 1 paper position
  • Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 41d ago
    2%
    11%
    +9pp
  • Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 26d ago
    3%
    10%
    +7pp
  • Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 82d ago
    4%
    9%
    +5pp
  • Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 82d ago
    3%
    8%
    +5pp
  • Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?paper YESresolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 5d ago
    6%
    10%
    +4pp
  • Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 82d ago
    1%
    4%
    +3pp

AIClaude 6 released by

3 questions · 2027-03-31 → 2027-12-31 · 1 paper position
  • Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?resolves 2027-06-30 · 238d · updated 48d ago
    72%
    64%
    -8pp
  • Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?paper YESresolves 2027-03-31 · 147d · updated 45d ago
    41%
    43%
    +2pp
  • Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?resolves 2027-12-31 · 422d · updated 57d ago
    88%
    86%
    -2pp

EconomyHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027

5 questions · 2027-01-01 · 2 paper position
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 35d ago
    3%
    11%
    +8pp
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 12d ago
    6%
    10%
    +4pp
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 4d ago
    29%
    33%
    +4pp
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?paper YESresolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 4d ago
    22%
    22%
    +0pp
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?paper YESresolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 4d ago
    11%
    11%
    -0pp

WorldUS announces end of Iranian blockade by

4 questions · 2026-11-16 → 2027-04-01 · 1 paper position
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?paper YESresolves 2026-12-01 · 27d · updated 2d ago
    22%
    29%
    +8pp
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?resolves 2026-11-16 · 12d · updated 2d ago
    8%
    12%
    +4pp
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 2d ago
    38%
    41%
    +3pp
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?resolves 2027-04-01 · 148d · updated 2d ago
    63%
    65%
    +2pp

AIWill any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31

2 questions · 2027-01-01
  • Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 6d ago
    38%
    46%
    +8pp
  • Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 57d ago
    11%
    13%
    +2pp

AIWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___

3 questions · 2027-01-01 → 2029-01-01 · 1 paper position
  • Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?resolves 2029-01-01 · 789d · updated 53d ago
    38%
    32%
    -6pp
  • Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 56d ago
    6%
    10%
    +5pp
  • Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?paper NOresolves 2028-01-01 · 423d · updated 53d ago
    18%
    17%
    -0pp

WorldWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by

4 questions · 2026-12-01 → 2027-07-01 · 1 paper position
  • Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by November 30, 2026?resolves 2026-12-01 · 27d · updated 31d ago
    4%
    10%
    +6pp
  • Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 2d ago
    8%
    11%
    +2pp
  • Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2027?paper NOresolves 2027-07-01 · 239d · updated 2d ago
    54%
    56%
    +2pp
  • Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?resolves 2027-04-01 · 148d · updated 2d ago
    32%
    33%
    +0pp

AIHow many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31

3 questions · 2027-01-01 · 1 paper position
  • Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 42d ago
    18%
    12%
    -6pp
  • Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?paper NOresolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 4d ago
    6%
    1%
    -5pp
  • Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 4d ago
    60%
    63%
    +3pp

AIWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31

11 questions · 2027-01-05 · 1 paper position
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by December 31?resolves 2027-01-05 · 62d · updated 11d ago
    32%
    38%
    +6pp
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?resolves 2027-01-05 · 62d · updated 82d ago
    4%
    8%
    +5pp
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?resolves 2027-01-05 · 62d · updated 11d ago
    18%
    13%
    -4pp
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?resolves 2027-01-05 · 62d · updated 82d ago
    2%
    6%
    +3pp
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?resolves 2027-01-05 · 62d · updated 82d ago
    4%
    7%
    +3pp
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?resolves 2027-01-05 · 62d · updated 11d ago
    81%
    78%
    -3pp

PoliticsFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by

4 questions · 2027-01-01 → 2028-01-01 · 1 paper position
  • Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?resolves 2027-07-01 · 239d · updated 2d ago
    24%
    25%
    +0pp
  • Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?resolves 2028-01-01 · 423d · updated 2d ago
    38%
    38%
    -0pp
  • Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?paper NOresolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 2d ago
    4%
    4%
    -0pp
  • Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?resolves 2027-04-01 · 148d · updated 2d ago
    12%
    12%
    0pp

WorldUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by

1 questions · 2027-01-01 · 1 paper position
  • US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?paper YESresolves 2027-01-01 · 58d · updated 54d ago
    6%
    6%
    +0pp