Standing Book2026-09-07
·

An AI forecaster’s open record against Polymarket

Behind the market

Every day the bot reads the news and states a probability for 226 open questions. When a question settles, the bot’s number and the market’s price from the last day the market was open are both scored against what actually happened.

Closer to the truth than the market

14 / 66

settled events, a ladder counts once

Paper money, after fees

−$391

68 settled trades · −$259 open

Calibration

±13pp

drifting

Questions settled

367

54 won · 122 lost · 191 tied

Money

Does it make money?

100-share paper positions, opened only on a ≥5pp disagreement in a tradable book
−$750−$500−$250$0$25005-2606-1507-0508-1809-07
incl. open positions settled, after fees

Real money not yet

  • Enough settled questions · 390 / ≥ 50PASS
  • Paper profit after fees · $-391.42 over 68 closed / > $0 across ≥ 50 closedNOT YET
  • Honest percentages · 0.127 / < 0.10NOT YET

Real orders start only after all three gates pass; first with a $25 mechanics test.

Execution loop: shadow — logs the orders it would place, places none · 9 open intents · $25 deployed

Latest settled

  • 2026-09-05Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?70% vs 100% → YESmarket closer
  • 2026-09-05Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 6, 2026?72% vs 50% → YESbot closer
  • 2026-09-05Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 8, 2026?84% vs 82% → YESbot closer
  • 2026-09-05Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 7, 2026?78% vs 74% → YESbot closer
  • 2026-09-05Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 5, 2026?69% vs 69% → YEStie
  • 2026-09-05Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 11, 2026?84% vs 96% → YESmarket closer

Full record →

The book

What it believes right now

bot   market  · Δ = bot − market

CryptoWhat price will Hyperliquid hit in 2026

18 questions · 2027-01-01
  • Will Hyperliquid reach $120 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 12d ago
    60%
    40%
    -20pp
  • Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 6d ago
    20%
    39%
    +18pp
  • Will Hyperliquid dip to $65 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 3d ago
    60%
    50%
    -10pp
  • Will Hyperliquid reach $140 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 12d ago
    18%
    25%
    +8pp
  • Will Hyperliquid dip to $75 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 3d ago
    68%
    62%
    -6pp
  • Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 3d ago
    62%
    56%
    -6pp

WorldUS announces end of Iranian blockade by

6 questions · 2026-09-08 → 2027-01-01 · 2 paper position
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?resolves 2026-09-08 · 1d · updated 11d ago
    0%
    15%
    +14pp
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?resolves 2026-09-15 · 8d · updated 9d ago
    4%
    11%
    +7pp
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?resolves 2026-09-22 · 15d · updated 9d ago
    10%
    16%
    +6pp
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?paper YESresolves 2026-10-01 · 24d
    16%
    17%
    +0pp
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?paper YESresolves 2026-11-01 · 55d
    36%
    36%
    +0pp
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d
    59%
    59%
    +0pp

CryptoWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026

32 questions · 2027-01-01 · 1 paper position
  • Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 2d ago
    22%
    36%
    +14pp
  • Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 2d ago
    34%
    48%
    +14pp
  • Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?paper YESresolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 2d ago
    51%
    63%
    +12pp
  • Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 2d ago
    74%
    84%
    +10pp
  • Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 2d ago
    18%
    28%
    +10pp
  • Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 2d ago
    14%
    22%
    +8pp

PoliticsBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

11 questions · 2026-10-04
  • Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?resolves 2026-10-04 · 27d · updated 22d ago
    7%
    20%
    +13pp
  • Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?resolves 2026-10-04 · 27d
    36%
    43%
    +6pp
  • Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?resolves 2026-10-04 · 27d · updated 22d ago
    3%
    6%
    +3pp
  • Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?resolves 2026-10-04 · 27d
    44%
    42%
    -2pp
  • Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?resolves 2026-10-04 · 27d · updated 22d ago
    3%
    4%
    +1pp
  • Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%?resolves 2026-10-04 · 27d · updated 22d ago
    2%
    3%
    +1pp

AIAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

10 questions · 2026-12-31 · 1 paper position
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?resolves 2026-12-31 · 115d · updated 24d ago
    2%
    14%
    +12pp
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?resolves 2026-12-31 · 115d · updated 24d ago
    0%
    5%
    +5pp
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?resolves 2026-12-31 · 115d · updated 23d ago
    5%
    8%
    +3pp
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?resolves 2026-12-31 · 115d · updated 1d ago
    11%
    13%
    +2pp
  • Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?resolves 2026-12-31 · 115d · updated 1d ago
    18%
    17%
    -2pp
  • Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?resolves 2026-12-31 · 115d · updated 24d ago
    0%
    1%
    +1pp

EconomyIPOs before 2027

28 questions · 2027-01-01
  • Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 24d ago
    3%
    12%
    +9pp
  • OpenAI IPO before 2027?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 24d ago
    8%
    16%
    +8pp
  • ByteDance IPO before 2027?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 24d ago
    4%
    12%
    +7pp
  • Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 24d ago
    1%
    8%
    +6pp
  • Epic Games IPO before 2027?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 24d ago
    4%
    9%
    +5pp
  • Celonis IPO before 2027?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 24d ago
    6%
    10%
    +4pp

AIWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31

10 questions · 2027-01-01
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 23d ago
    96%
    88%
    -8pp
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 6d ago
    82%
    79%
    -2pp
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 6d ago
    90%
    88%
    -2pp
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 24d ago
    4%
    2%
    -1pp
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 14d ago
    46%
    46%
    +1pp
  • Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 24d ago
    6%
    7%
    +1pp

AIGPU rental prices (H100) end of October

6 questions · 2026-10-31 · 2 paper position
  • Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026?paper YESresolves 2026-10-31 · 54d
    38%
    44%
    +6pp
  • Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026?paper YESresolves 2026-10-31 · 54d
    18%
    20%
    +2pp
  • Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.25 on October 31, 2026?resolves 2026-10-31 · 54d · updated 24d ago
    7%
    5%
    -2pp
  • Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026?resolves 2026-10-31 · 54d
    18%
    17%
    -2pp
  • Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on October 31, 2026?resolves 2026-10-31 · 54d · updated 24d ago
    4%
    5%
    +1pp
  • Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on October 31, 2026?resolves 2026-10-31 · 54d
    12%
    10%
    -1pp

CryptoWhat price will Ethereum hit in 2026

23 questions · 2027-01-01
  • Will Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 2d ago
    72%
    66%
    -6pp
  • Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 2d ago
    15%
    20%
    +4pp
  • Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 2d ago
    56%
    60%
    +4pp
  • Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 24d ago
    4%
    8%
    +4pp
  • Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 2d ago
    33%
    36%
    +4pp
  • Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 24d ago
    6%
    9%
    +4pp

EconomyAugust Inflation US - Annual

12 questions · 2026-09-11 · 1 paper position
  • Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August?resolves 2026-09-11 · 4d · updated 24d ago
    9%
    3%
    -5pp
  • Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?resolves 2026-09-11 · 4d · updated 2d ago
    32%
    27%
    -4pp
  • Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August?resolves 2026-09-11 · 4d · updated 24d ago
    2%
    5%
    +3pp
  • Will annual inflation be 3.8% in August?resolves 2026-09-11 · 4d · updated 24d ago
    0%
    3%
    +3pp
  • Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?paper NOresolves 2026-09-11 · 4d · updated 2d ago
    44%
    47%
    +2pp
  • Will annual inflation be 2.9% or less in August?resolves 2026-09-11 · 4d · updated 24d ago
    0%
    2%
    +2pp

PoliticsWhich coalition will form the next New Zealand government

18 questions · 2026-11-07
  • Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?resolves 2026-11-07 · 61d · updated 24d ago
    9%
    4%
    -5pp
  • Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?resolves 2026-11-07 · 61d · updated 11d ago
    48%
    44%
    -4pp
  • Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori?resolves 2026-11-07 · 61d · updated 11d ago
    17%
    14%
    -4pp
  • Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?resolves 2026-11-07 · 61d · updated 11d ago
    22%
    19%
    -3pp
  • Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT?resolves 2026-11-07 · 61d · updated 24d ago
    2%
    0%
    -1pp
  • Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + NZF?resolves 2026-11-07 · 61d · updated 24d ago
    0%
    2%
    +1pp

AIWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31

14 questions · 2027-01-01
  • Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 24d ago
    3%
    8%
    +4pp
  • Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 24d ago
    4%
    8%
    +3pp
  • Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 24d ago
    3%
    6%
    +3pp
  • Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 24d ago
    8%
    10%
    +2pp
  • Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 24d ago
    6%
    8%
    +2pp
  • Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?resolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 24d ago
    3%
    4%
    +1pp

WorldUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by

2 questions · 2026-10-01 → 2027-01-01 · 1 paper position
  • US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?paper YESresolves 2027-01-01 · 116d · updated 34d ago
    6%
    10%
    +4pp
  • US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?resolves 2026-10-01 · 24d · updated 34d ago
    1%
    4%
    +2pp

EconomyCore CPI YoY - August 2026

10 questions · 2026-09-11
  • Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August?resolves 2026-09-11 · 4d · updated 2d ago
    50%
    46%
    -4pp
  • Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in August?resolves 2026-09-11 · 4d · updated 2d ago
    16%
    13%
    -2pp
  • Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in August?resolves 2026-09-11 · 4d · updated 24d ago
    2%
    5%
    +2pp
  • Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% or more in August?resolves 2026-09-11 · 4d · updated 24d ago
    1%
    2%
    +2pp
  • Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in August?resolves 2026-09-11 · 4d · updated 2d ago
    28%
    30%
    +2pp
  • Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in August?resolves 2026-09-11 · 4d · updated 24d ago
    1%
    2%
    +1pp

EconomyFed Decision in September

5 questions · 2026-09-16 · 1 paper position
  • Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?paper NOresolves 2026-09-16 · 9d
    50%
    47%
    -4pp
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?resolves 2026-09-16 · 9d
    50%
    52%
    +3pp
  • Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?resolves 2026-09-16 · 9d · updated 2d ago
    0%
    0%
    +0pp
  • Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?resolves 2026-09-16 · 9d · updated 2d ago
    1%
    1%
    0pp
  • Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?resolves 2026-09-16 · 9d · updated 2d ago
    0%
    0%
    0pp

PoliticsHow many House seats will the Democrats win in Ohio

7 questions · 2026-11-03
  • Will Democrats win exactly 6 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 midterm elections?resolves 2026-11-03 · 57d · updated 16d ago
    50%
    47%
    -3pp
  • Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 midterm elections?resolves 2026-11-03 · 57d · updated 16d ago
    20%
    23%
    +3pp
  • Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 midterm elections?resolves 2026-11-03 · 57d · updated 16d ago
    10%
    10%
    +1pp
  • Will Democrats win 7 or more House seats in Ohio in the 2026 midterm elections?resolves 2026-11-03 · 57d · updated 16d ago
    16%
    16%
    -0pp
  • Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 midterm elections?resolves 2026-11-03 · 57d · updated 16d ago
    0%
    0%
    +0pp
  • Will Democrats win fewer than 2 House seats in Ohio in the 2026 midterm elections?resolves 2026-11-03 · 57d · updated 16d ago
    0%
    0%
    -0pp

PoliticsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms

5 questions · 2026-11-03
  • 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Houseresolves 2026-11-03 · 57d · updated 24d ago
    52%
    49%
    -2pp
  • 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D Houseresolves 2026-11-03 · 57d · updated 24d ago
    36%
    37%
    +2pp
  • 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R Houseresolves 2026-11-03 · 57d · updated 24d ago
    12%
    12%
    +1pp
  • 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R Houseresolves 2026-11-03 · 57d · updated 24d ago
    1%
    1%
    +0pp
  • 2026 Balance of Power: Otherresolves 2026-11-03 · 57d · updated 24d ago
    0%
    0%
    -0pp

WorldNext round of US-Iran peace talks by

4 questions · 2026-09-30 → 2027-03-31 · 1 paper position
  • US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?paper YESresolves 2026-09-30 · 23d
    8%
    8%
    +0pp
  • US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?resolves 2026-10-31 · 54d
    16%
    17%
    +0pp
  • US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?resolves 2026-12-31 · 115d
    42%
    42%
    +0pp
  • US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?resolves 2027-03-31 · 205d
    56%
    56%
    +0pp

WorldIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through

4 questions · 2026-09-30 → 2026-12-31
  • Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?resolves 2026-10-31 · 54d
    72%
    72%
    +0pp
  • Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?resolves 2026-11-30 · 84d
    64%
    64%
    +0pp
  • Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?resolves 2026-12-31 · 115d
    60%
    60%
    +0pp
  • Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?resolves 2026-09-30 · 23d
    84%
    84%
    0pp