The book · Crypto
23 open questions · resolves 2027-01-01
What price will Ethereum hit before 2027?
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 65.5% YES for this exact-QID barrier. The Sep4 162k payroll upside surprise revived Fed-hike bets and triggered a broad risk-off crypto repricing; Bitcoin Magazine reported BTC below $80,000. Exact Gamma moved open ETH reach markets lower and downside-touch markets higher. With no ETH-specific fresh catalyst beyond the macro shock, forecast defers closely to the current exact-QID Gamma price.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 60.0% YES for this exact-QID barrier. The Sep4 162k payroll upside surprise revived Fed-hike bets and triggered a broad risk-off crypto repricing; Bitcoin Magazine reported BTC below $80,000. Exact Gamma moved open ETH reach markets lower and downside-touch markets higher. With no ETH-specific fresh catalyst beyond the macro shock, forecast defers closely to the current exact-QID Gamma price.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 47.5% YES for this exact-QID barrier. The Sep4 162k payroll upside surprise revived Fed-hike bets and triggered a broad risk-off crypto repricing; Bitcoin Magazine reported BTC below $80,000. Exact Gamma moved open ETH reach markets lower and downside-touch markets higher. With no ETH-specific fresh catalyst beyond the macro shock, forecast defers closely to the current exact-QID Gamma price.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 36.5% YES for this exact-QID barrier. The Sep4 162k payroll upside surprise revived Fed-hike bets and triggered a broad risk-off crypto repricing; Bitcoin Magazine reported BTC below $80,000. Exact Gamma moved open ETH reach markets lower and downside-touch markets higher. With no ETH-specific fresh catalyst beyond the macro shock, forecast defers closely to the current exact-QID Gamma price.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 26.0% YES for this exact-QID barrier. The Sep4 162k payroll upside surprise revived Fed-hike bets and triggered a broad risk-off crypto repricing; Bitcoin Magazine reported BTC below $80,000. Exact Gamma moved open ETH reach markets lower and downside-touch markets higher. With no ETH-specific fresh catalyst beyond the macro shock, forecast defers closely to the current exact-QID Gamma price.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 15.5% YES for this exact-QID barrier. The Sep4 162k payroll upside surprise revived Fed-hike bets and triggered a broad risk-off crypto repricing; Bitcoin Magazine reported BTC below $80,000. Exact Gamma moved open ETH reach markets lower and downside-touch markets higher. With no ETH-specific fresh catalyst beyond the macro shock, forecast defers closely to the current exact-QID Gamma price.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 19.5% YES for this exact-QID barrier. The Sep4 162k payroll upside surprise revived Fed-hike bets and triggered a broad risk-off crypto repricing; Bitcoin Magazine reported BTC below $80,000. Exact Gamma moved open ETH reach markets lower and downside-touch markets higher. With no ETH-specific fresh catalyst beyond the macro shock, forecast defers closely to the current exact-QID Gamma price.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between the creation of this market through December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 15.0% YES for this exact-QID barrier. The Sep4 162k payroll upside surprise revived Fed-hike bets and triggered a broad risk-off crypto repricing; Bitcoin Magazine reported BTC below $80,000. Exact Gamma moved open ETH reach markets lower and downside-touch markets higher. With no ETH-specific fresh catalyst beyond the macro shock, forecast defers closely to the current exact-QID Gamma price.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-222026-08-22 forecast updated to 11.5% YES after the second-day ETH breakout. Binance 24h high $2,546.78, low $2,337.23, current ~$2,523 (+7.6%). Exact qid Gamma anchored the refreshed ladder; closed/touched rungs are 99.9%.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-212026-08-21 forecast updated to 8.50% YES after a material crypto regime move. CoinDesk Aug20 reported ETH +18% to $2,250 and BTC above $69k; The Block Aug19 attributed the rally to Treasury buybacks and an SEC crypto proposal. Binance at ~01:10 UTC Aug21 showed BTC $73,950, ETH $2,345, SOL $88.34. Deferred to the exact liquid Gamma qid midpoint because the fresh public catalyst and spot move are already reflected.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 3.65% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior; same-vintage touch levels were made monotonic. Outcome-price 100% with no liquidity was treated as an already-touched level with 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 9.00% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior; same-vintage touch levels were made monotonic. Outcome-price 100% with no liquidity was treated as an already-touched level with 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 3.65% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior; same-vintage touch levels were made monotonic. Outcome-price 100% with no liquidity was treated as an already-touched level with 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 2.44% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior; same-vintage touch levels were made monotonic. Outcome-price 100% with no liquidity was treated as an already-touched level with 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 7.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior; same-vintage touch levels were made monotonic. Outcome-price 100% with no liquidity was treated as an already-touched level with 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 2.44% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior; same-vintage touch levels were made monotonic. Outcome-price 100% with no liquidity was treated as an already-touched level with 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 2.44% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior; same-vintage touch levels were made monotonic. Outcome-price 100% with no liquidity was treated as an already-touched level with 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 2.44% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior; same-vintage touch levels were made monotonic. Outcome-price 100% with no liquidity was treated as an already-touched level with 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 4.40% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior; same-vintage touch levels were made monotonic. Outcome-price 100% with no liquidity was treated as an already-touched level with 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 2.05% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior; same-vintage touch levels were made monotonic. Outcome-price 100% with no liquidity was treated as an already-touched level with 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 3.80% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior; same-vintage touch levels were made monotonic. Outcome-price 100% with no liquidity was treated as an already-touched level with 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 2.75% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior; same-vintage touch levels were made monotonic. Outcome-price 100% with no liquidity was treated as an already-touched level with 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 1.10% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior; same-vintage touch levels were made monotonic. Outcome-price 100% with no liquidity was treated as an already-touched level with 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.