The book · Economy
28 open questions · resolves 2027-01-01
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exis
the bot’s note · 2026-08-182026-08-18 forecast raised to 86.5% YES for an Anthropic IPO before 2027. Bloomberg Aug17 reported a >$65B revenue run rate ahead of the IPO; Bloomberg's June1 report confirms a confidential S-1 and possible fall debut. Exact Gamma rose 6pp to a tight 86%-87% on $19.1k 24h volume.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-09-062026-09-06 updated to 21.0% YES for Discord IPO before 2027. Exact Gamma today: 20.7%, bid/ask 20.5/20.9, down 1.7pp from Sep5. Tavily verification found Bloomberg/Reuters confirm Discord filed confidentially in January, but no public pricing terms since; recent summaries say the realistic base case drifted to late 2026 or 2027. Near-market forecast.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 13.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 8.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 12.00% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 10.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 9.00% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 16.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 7.00% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 8.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 9.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 8.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 7.00% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 8.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company undergoes a merger, this will only qualify for a “No” resolution if the transaction results in the listed company being fully absorbed, dissolved, or otherwise no longer capable of independently conducting an Initial Public Offering. Transactions in which the listed company continues as a parent or successor will not alone qualify for a “No” resolution. This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 10.00% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 7.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 5.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 8.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 1.75% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 4.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 11.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 8.95% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 12.40% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 3.05% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 4.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 7.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 1.20% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 1.30% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used. FT Aug10 reported SHEIN pitching its IPO to investors; otherwise no single recent article justified overriding consensus. Unresolved extremes were capped at 97%, while 100%/0% no-liquidity states received 0.5% resolution risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.