Standing Book2026-09-07
·

The book · Crypto

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026

32 open questions · resolves 2027-01-01

What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?

bot market second agent (the running experiment)

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 72% · market 74% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 71.5% YES for this exact-QID upside touch. Bitcoin Magazine Sep4 reports BTC fell below $80,000 after the 162k payroll surprise revived Fed-hike risk; exact Gamma barrier markets repriced sharply. A Sep5 Yahoo/CCN item cites Kalshi at 49% for sub-$50k and 66% for sub-$55k by year-end; I discount that bearish comparison but raise the open downside ladder moderately, while keeping upside levels near exact Gamma. Creation cutoffs still differ across duplicate titles.
Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 84% · market 74% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-2608-2909-0109-0409-07
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 84.0% YES for this exact-QID downside touch. Bitcoin Magazine Sep4 reports BTC fell below $80,000 after the 162k payroll surprise revived Fed-hike risk; exact Gamma barrier markets repriced sharply. A Sep5 Yahoo/CCN item cites Kalshi at 49% for sub-$50k and 66% for sub-$55k by year-end; I discount that bearish comparison but raise the open downside ladder moderately, while keeping upside levels near exact Gamma. Creation cutoffs still differ across duplicate titles.
Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 54% · market 54% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 53.5% YES for this exact-QID upside touch. Bitcoin Magazine Sep4 reports BTC fell below $80,000 after the 162k payroll surprise revived Fed-hike risk; exact Gamma barrier markets repriced sharply. A Sep5 Yahoo/CCN item cites Kalshi at 49% for sub-$50k and 66% for sub-$55k by year-end; I discount that bearish comparison but raise the open downside ladder moderately, while keeping upside levels near exact Gamma. Creation cutoffs still differ across duplicate titles.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 63% · market 51% · resolves 2027-01-01 · paper YES @ 0.54
0%25%50%75%100%08-2608-2909-0109-0409-07
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 63.0% YES for this exact-QID downside touch. Bitcoin Magazine Sep4 reports BTC fell below $80,000 after the 162k payroll surprise revived Fed-hike risk; exact Gamma barrier markets repriced sharply. A Sep5 Yahoo/CCN item cites Kalshi at 49% for sub-$50k and 66% for sub-$55k by year-end; I discount that bearish comparison but raise the open downside ladder moderately, while keeping upside levels near exact Gamma. Creation cutoffs still differ across duplicate titles.
Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 38% · market 38% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 37.5% YES for this exact-QID upside touch. Bitcoin Magazine Sep4 reports BTC fell below $80,000 after the 162k payroll surprise revived Fed-hike risk; exact Gamma barrier markets repriced sharply. A Sep5 Yahoo/CCN item cites Kalshi at 49% for sub-$50k and 66% for sub-$55k by year-end; I discount that bearish comparison but raise the open downside ladder moderately, while keeping upside levels near exact Gamma. Creation cutoffs still differ across duplicate titles.
Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 48% · market 34% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-2608-2909-0109-0409-07
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 48.0% YES for this exact-QID downside touch. Bitcoin Magazine Sep4 reports BTC fell below $80,000 after the 162k payroll surprise revived Fed-hike risk; exact Gamma barrier markets repriced sharply. A Sep5 Yahoo/CCN item cites Kalshi at 49% for sub-$50k and 66% for sub-$55k by year-end; I discount that bearish comparison but raise the open downside ladder moderately, while keeping upside levels near exact Gamma. Creation cutoffs still differ across duplicate titles.
Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 26% · market 26% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 26.5% YES for this exact-QID upside touch. Bitcoin Magazine Sep4 reports BTC fell below $80,000 after the 162k payroll surprise revived Fed-hike risk; exact Gamma barrier markets repriced sharply. A Sep5 Yahoo/CCN item cites Kalshi at 49% for sub-$50k and 66% for sub-$55k by year-end; I discount that bearish comparison but raise the open downside ladder moderately, while keeping upside levels near exact Gamma. Creation cutoffs still differ across duplicate titles.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 36% · market 22% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 36.0% YES for this exact-QID downside touch. Bitcoin Magazine Sep4 reports BTC fell below $80,000 after the 162k payroll surprise revived Fed-hike risk; exact Gamma barrier markets repriced sharply. A Sep5 Yahoo/CCN item cites Kalshi at 49% for sub-$50k and 66% for sub-$55k by year-end; I discount that bearish comparison but raise the open downside ladder moderately, while keeping upside levels near exact Gamma. Creation cutoffs still differ across duplicate titles.
Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “Low” prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 28% · market 18% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 28.0% YES for this exact-QID downside touch. Bitcoin Magazine Sep4 reports BTC fell below $80,000 after the 162k payroll surprise revived Fed-hike risk; exact Gamma barrier markets repriced sharply. A Sep5 Yahoo/CCN item cites Kalshi at 49% for sub-$50k and 66% for sub-$55k by year-end; I discount that bearish comparison but raise the open downside ladder moderately, while keeping upside levels near exact Gamma. Creation cutoffs still differ across duplicate titles.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 18% · market 16% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 18.5% YES for this exact-QID upside touch. Bitcoin Magazine Sep4 reports BTC fell below $80,000 after the 162k payroll surprise revived Fed-hike risk; exact Gamma barrier markets repriced sharply. A Sep5 Yahoo/CCN item cites Kalshi at 49% for sub-$50k and 66% for sub-$55k by year-end; I discount that bearish comparison but raise the open downside ladder moderately, while keeping upside levels near exact Gamma. Creation cutoffs still differ across duplicate titles.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 22% · market 14% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 22.0% YES for this exact-QID downside touch. Bitcoin Magazine Sep4 reports BTC fell below $80,000 after the 162k payroll surprise revived Fed-hike risk; exact Gamma barrier markets repriced sharply. A Sep5 Yahoo/CCN item cites Kalshi at 49% for sub-$50k and 66% for sub-$55k by year-end; I discount that bearish comparison but raise the open downside ladder moderately, while keeping upside levels near exact Gamma. Creation cutoffs still differ across duplicate titles.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 12% · market 10% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 11.5% YES for this exact-QID upside touch. Bitcoin Magazine Sep4 reports BTC fell below $80,000 after the 162k payroll surprise revived Fed-hike risk; exact Gamma barrier markets repriced sharply. A Sep5 Yahoo/CCN item cites Kalshi at 49% for sub-$50k and 66% for sub-$55k by year-end; I discount that bearish comparison but raise the open downside ladder moderately, while keeping upside levels near exact Gamma. Creation cutoffs still differ across duplicate titles.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 10% · market 8% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-08-212026-08-21 forecast updated to 10.50% YES after a material crypto regime move. CoinDesk Aug20 reported ETH +18% to $2,250 and BTC above $69k; The Block Aug19 attributed the rally to Treasury buybacks and an SEC crypto proposal. Binance at ~01:10 UTC Aug21 showed BTC $73,950, ETH $2,345, SOL $88.34. Deferred to the exact liquid Gamma qid midpoint because the fresh public catalyst and spot move are already reflected.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 8% · market 8% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-08-212026-08-21 forecast updated to 7.50% YES after a material crypto regime move. CoinDesk Aug20 reported ETH +18% to $2,250 and BTC above $69k; The Block Aug19 attributed the rally to Treasury buybacks and an SEC crypto proposal. Binance at ~01:10 UTC Aug21 showed BTC $73,950, ETH $2,345, SOL $88.34. Deferred to the exact liquid Gamma qid midpoint because the fresh public catalyst and spot move are already reflected.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 4% · market 7% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 4.05% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior. The Block Aug13 reported BTC ranging below $64k after in-line CPI/flat PPI; same-vintage touch ladders were checked for monotonicity, while duplicate qids retain creation-cutoff differences.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 8% · market 5% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 7.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior. The Block Aug13 reported BTC ranging below $64k after in-line CPI/flat PPI; same-vintage touch ladders were checked for monotonicity, while duplicate qids retain creation-cutoff differences.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 4% · market 5% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 3.60% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior. The Block Aug13 reported BTC ranging below $64k after in-line CPI/flat PPI; same-vintage touch ladders were checked for monotonicity, while duplicate qids retain creation-cutoff differences.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 6% · market 4% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 6.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior. The Block Aug13 reported BTC ranging below $64k after in-line CPI/flat PPI; same-vintage touch ladders were checked for monotonicity, while duplicate qids retain creation-cutoff differences.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 3% · market 4% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 2.95% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior. The Block Aug13 reported BTC ranging below $64k after in-line CPI/flat PPI; same-vintage touch ladders were checked for monotonicity, while duplicate qids retain creation-cutoff differences.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 3% · market 3% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 2.80% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior. The Block Aug13 reported BTC ranging below $64k after in-line CPI/flat PPI; same-vintage touch ladders were checked for monotonicity, while duplicate qids retain creation-cutoff differences.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 3% · market 3% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 2.95% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior. The Block Aug13 reported BTC ranging below $64k after in-line CPI/flat PPI; same-vintage touch ladders were checked for monotonicity, while duplicate qids retain creation-cutoff differences.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 3% · market 2% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 3.25% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior. The Block Aug13 reported BTC ranging below $64k after in-line CPI/flat PPI; same-vintage touch ladders were checked for monotonicity, while duplicate qids retain creation-cutoff differences.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 2% · market 2% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 2.25% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior. The Block Aug13 reported BTC ranging below $64k after in-line CPI/flat PPI; same-vintage touch ladders were checked for monotonicity, while duplicate qids retain creation-cutoff differences.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 2% · market 2% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 2.0% YES for this exact-QID downside touch. Bitcoin Magazine Sep4 reports BTC fell below $80,000 after the 162k payroll surprise revived Fed-hike risk; exact Gamma barrier markets repriced sharply. A Sep5 Yahoo/CCN item cites Kalshi at 49% for sub-$50k and 66% for sub-$55k by year-end; I discount that bearish comparison but raise the open downside ladder moderately, while keeping upside levels near exact Gamma. Creation cutoffs still differ across duplicate titles.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 2% · market 2% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 2.25% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior. The Block Aug13 reported BTC ranging below $64k after in-line CPI/flat PPI; same-vintage touch ladders were checked for monotonicity, while duplicate qids retain creation-cutoff differences.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 2% · market 2% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 1.5% YES for this exact-QID downside touch. Bitcoin Magazine Sep4 reports BTC fell below $80,000 after the 162k payroll surprise revived Fed-hike risk; exact Gamma barrier markets repriced sharply. A Sep5 Yahoo/CCN item cites Kalshi at 49% for sub-$50k and 66% for sub-$55k by year-end; I discount that bearish comparison but raise the open downside ladder moderately, while keeping upside levels near exact Gamma. Creation cutoffs still differ across duplicate titles.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 2% · market 1% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 2.50% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior. The Block Aug13 reported BTC ranging below $64k after in-line CPI/flat PPI; same-vintage touch ladders were checked for monotonicity, while duplicate qids retain creation-cutoff differences.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 2% · market 1% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 2.05% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior. The Block Aug13 reported BTC ranging below $64k after in-line CPI/flat PPI; same-vintage touch ladders were checked for monotonicity, while duplicate qids retain creation-cutoff differences.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 2% · market 1% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 1.5% YES for this exact-QID upside touch. Bitcoin Magazine Sep4 reports BTC fell below $80,000 after the 162k payroll surprise revived Fed-hike risk; exact Gamma barrier markets repriced sharply. A Sep5 Yahoo/CCN item cites Kalshi at 49% for sub-$50k and 66% for sub-$55k by year-end; I discount that bearish comparison but raise the open downside ladder moderately, while keeping upside levels near exact Gamma. Creation cutoffs still differ across duplicate titles.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 2% · market 1% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 1.65% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior. The Block Aug13 reported BTC ranging below $64k after in-line CPI/flat PPI; same-vintage touch ladders were checked for monotonicity, while duplicate qids retain creation-cutoff differences.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 1% · market 1% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-09-052026-09-05 updated to 0.60% YES for this exact-QID upside touch. Bitcoin Magazine Sep4 reports BTC fell below $80,000 after the 162k payroll surprise revived Fed-hike risk; exact Gamma barrier markets repriced sharply. A Sep5 Yahoo/CCN item cites Kalshi at 49% for sub-$50k and 66% for sub-$55k by year-end; I discount that bearish comparison but raise the open downside ladder moderately, while keeping upside levels near exact Gamma. Creation cutoffs still differ across duplicate titles.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?

bot 1% · market 0% · resolves 2027-01-01
0%25%50%75%100%08-1408-2008-2609-0109-07
the bot’s note · 2026-08-142026-08-14 initial forecast 0.85% YES. Fresh exact Gamma price used as the prior. The Block Aug13 reported BTC ranging below $64k after in-line CPI/flat PPI; same-vintage touch ladders were checked for monotonicity, while duplicate qids retain creation-cutoff differences.
Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Already settled in this event